State Farm Classic

FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +12.00pts

Davies 63rd
Kung dns
Hurst 1st
Pettersen 20th

And so it continues ... when a place-only player earns a place, it is first place! That's three in a row, but there were plenty of indications why Hurst was a place-only play. Having built up a five-shot lead, she went 7-5 at the start of the back nine and largely only won because no-one put her under pressure: 2nd place Cristie Kerr only had one birdie in her last 14 holes. Could have been a bumper week with Pettersen reaching as high as 6th place on the final day. It would not have been a problem but for her opening 76.
 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Laura Davies to win 33/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Providing the Solheim Cup is not on her mind too much, there are very strong reasons to back Davies this week. She has five top-3 finishes from ten strokeplay starts over the past three months and her course record is even better. She has played on this course seven times and her finishes read: 3rd, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 4th, 2nd and 24th. On the occasion that she finished 14th, she held a four-shot lead with one round to play, but carded a 77. She may seem destined not to win this event, but there is plenty of value at 33/1.

Candie Kung to win 50/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods (also 50/1 @ Stan James, though only four places)
Kung has won this event (2003) and has finished in the top-20 on both her other visits. When she won, she was a wire-to-wire winner, so this is clearly a course that suits Kung as well. Showing good, consistent form this year, she should certainly match her top-20 finishes of the last three years.

Pat Hurst to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ GolfingGods
Hurst is another with good form at The Rail with four top-10 finishes in the last five years. With six top-7 finishes in her last nine starts, she is certainly showing the form to continue her fine record on this course. But it is noticeable that she has not won on this course or in the recent run of good form and that included last week when, tied for the lead, she took a double-bogey on the last hole and so missed the chance of a playoff. Place-only would seem the best option for now!

Suzann Pettersen to finish in the top-five 30/1 @ Centrebet
Last year, Stewart Cink won the NEC Invitational at 66/1 the week after being named a wild card in the U.S. Ryder Cup team and Luke Donald, named a wild card in the European Ryder Cup team, won the European Masters two weeks later. Applying this logic to this field and Sunday's announcement of the Solheim Cup teams leads to a backing of Pettersen this week. She has the course form - 5th last year - the current form - 6th and 2nd in her last two starts - and now the confidence boost to perform well this week.