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Outright Picks - LPGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: Outright

Nabisco Championship

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FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +0.00pts

Kerr 35th
Wie 3rd
Song 39th

There has been frustration with the outrights in all the events this week and none moreso than this one. It looked like a two-player event for most of the weekend and Wie gradually wheeled in her opponent and overtook her with five holes to play. But Webb had been catching the leaders fast, but it still took a holed pitching wedge from 116 yards on the final hole for eagle for her to snatch the lead for herself. Ochoa would also eagle the final hole when she hit a 5-wood into 6-feet, but it was still Wie's to win. She had a 25-foot chip for the title, but she showed her real age and ran it 10 feet by, which she missed and so missed out on a place in the playoff. Rather disappointing.

 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Cristie Kerr to win 18/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Kerr has rather slipped under the radar this year as she has not been playing in the final couple of groups each weekend, but she has finished in the top-10 in each of her four starts this season, not recorded a single round over par and finished 4th in her last outing two weeks ago. So with finishes of 3rd, 11th, 5th and 3rd in the last four years here, the stats point quite clearly to another high finish from Kerr, so odds of 14/1 and above should represent value this week.

Michelle Wie to win 20/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Wie is not the sort of player who would want to be under the radar and that is something that she revels in, but it has yet to result in a win on this Tour. There is a decent chance that it will happen this week, but, rather like Kerr, it is her consistency that suggests that a place payout should be highly likely. In her last four starts, she has finished in the top-3 three times and was in 2nd place after 36 holes after which she was disqualified for an incorrect drop/signing for an incorrect scorecard. And with three appearances in this event as an amateur, she has finished in the top-15 every time, including 4th place two years ago. She is still a long way short of Annika in ability, but she is more than just a big-hitter as she showed in her previous start when she ranked 1st in greens in regulation and she is undeniably getting closer and closer to that maiden Tour win. As with Kerr, odds of no more than 14/1 had been expected.

Aree Song to win 66/1 e.w. @ Expekt ['w/o Annika Sorenstam' market]
Struggled, as so many do, in her second full season on Tour with just two top-10 finishes, only half as many as in 2004. But her return to form has been evident this season. In her opening event, she entered the final round in 5th place, before finishing in 11th and in the last LPGA Tour event, her third of the season, she finished 3rd. And that is her highest finish on Tour since the 2004 Nabisco Championship and it her history in this event that makes her particularly good value at these odds. In 2004, she entered the final round tied with Grace Park and it took a birdie at the last hole from Park to deny the then-17-year-old a playoff. And it wasn't the first time that she had been playing in the final group in the last round as she had done the same when making her debut in this event in 2000 when just 13 years old. There has never been any question over her talent and this looks to be the perfect course for her to display it.