Outright Picks - LPGA Tour |
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Nabisco Championship |
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FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +0.00pts
Kerr 35th
Wie 3rd
Song 39th
There has been frustration with the outrights in all the events this
week and none moreso than this one. It looked like a two-player event
for most of the weekend and Wie gradually wheeled in her opponent and
overtook her with five holes to play. But Webb had been catching the
leaders fast, but it still took a holed pitching wedge from 116 yards on
the final hole for eagle for her to snatch the lead for herself. Ochoa
would also eagle the final hole when she hit a 5-wood into 6-feet, but
it was still Wie's to win. She had a 25-foot chip for the title, but she
showed her real age and ran it 10 feet by, which she missed and so
missed out on a place in the playoff. Rather disappointing.
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt) Cristie Kerr to win
18/1 e.w. @
Sportingbet
and
Sporting Odds
Kerr has rather slipped under the radar this year as she has not been
playing in the final couple of groups each weekend, but she has finished
in the top-10 in each of her four starts this season, not recorded a
single round over par and finished 4th in her last outing two weeks ago.
So with finishes of 3rd, 11th, 5th and 3rd in the last four years here,
the stats point quite clearly to another high finish from Kerr, so odds
of 14/1 and above should represent value this week. Michelle Wie to
win 20/1 e.w. @
Ladbrokes
Wie is not the sort of player who would want to be under the radar and
that is something that she revels in, but it has yet to result in a win
on this Tour. There is a decent chance that it will happen this week,
but, rather like Kerr, it is her consistency that suggests that a place
payout should be highly likely. In her last four starts, she has
finished in the top-3 three times and was in 2nd place after 36 holes
after which she was disqualified for an incorrect drop/signing for an
incorrect scorecard. And with three appearances in this event as an
amateur, she has finished in the top-15 every time, including 4th place
two years ago. She is still a long way short of Annika in ability, but
she is more than just a big-hitter as she showed in her previous start
when she ranked 1st in greens in regulation and she is undeniably
getting closer and closer to that maiden Tour win. As with Kerr, odds of
no more than 14/1 had been expected. Aree Song to win 66/1 e.w.
@
Expekt
['w/o Annika Sorenstam' market]
Struggled, as so many do, in her second full season on Tour with just
two top-10 finishes, only half as many as in 2004. But her return to
form has been evident this season. In her opening event, she entered the
final round in 5th place, before finishing in 11th and in the last LPGA
Tour event, her third of the season, she finished 3rd. And that is her
highest finish on Tour since the 2004 Nabisco Championship and it her
history in this event that makes her particularly good value at these
odds. In 2004, she entered the final round tied with Grace Park and it
took a birdie at the last hole from Park to deny the then-17-year-old a
playoff. And it wasn't the first time that she had been playing in the
final group in the last round as she had done the same when making her
debut in this event in 2000 when just 13 years old. There has never been
any question over her talent and this looks to be the perfect course for
her to display it. |