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Outright Picks - Web.comTour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
Boise Open
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After a week off to rest and assess their standings, Web.com players find themselves in Idaho for the 23rd Boise Open. The Hillcrest Country Club is very short, with an abundance of mature trees and water hazards (six ponds and a canal) that come into play on twelve holes, meaning accuracy is a must. The course will be set up to play very challenging this week, with long, thick rough and rock hard greens making this a difficult track. We also find elevated tees and greens here again placing the premium on accuracy and negating the advantage of being a long driver. As mentioned by last year's winner Jason Kokrak with regards to the hard greens, "[They] are so firm and quick that if you're not careful you can suddenly have a lot of 10-20 footers...The key was picking the right time to be aggressive and the right time to play away from the pins. It was important to leave yourself a lot of uphill putts and also yourself plenty of opportunities." Assessing Kokrak's comments along with what else we know about this course, I feel as though we should be searching for a player who ranks highly in driving accuracy, greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and also (maybe most importantly) bogey avoidance.

My picks are as follows.

Gavin Coles - Australian Coles has been plying his trade on the PGA this year and has only managed two outings on the Web.com tour up to this point with a missed cut and a highly respectable 20th last time out. He has no outstanding results on the PGA but can boast a sterling 19th at the Canadian Open and a 27th at the Greenbrier amongst much better company than he will face this week. In terms of stats, he is 49th in Driving Accuracy on the PGA but more importantly to me, 22nd in proximity to the hole and if we throw into the mix that Coles has previously placed 4th here at Hillcrest (2002) and I feel he is slightly overpriced. 0.25pts e/w @ 80/1 Various

Peter Tomasulo - His stats don't really do him justice bearing in mind he is a winner on the Web.com tour already this year but he has been plying his trade in unison on the PGA amongst greater company so I'm willing to ignore his accuracy stats and missed cuts. What does stand out to me though is his approach play on the PGA tour, with him leading in almost every approach stat sub 125 yards which will bode exceptionally well here where attacking the flag is essential. He also ranks first in putting from 15'-20' which again is essential here. As mentioned above, his form isn't astounding this year with as many MCs as finishes but he does have that vital win under his belt and can boast finishes of 15/4/7/23/15 here at Hillcrest. Its a risk siding with Tomasulo this week but at the price and with his course form I'm willing to take it. 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 Various

B J Staten - Aside from the obvious fact that Staten has course form here having placed 3rd and 11th in the five years that he has played Hillcrest, it is his stats that draw me to him. He is 27th in driving accuracy, 3rd in putting average and 6th in birdie or better percentage which will all help him on a tough course where sinking puts and avoiding bogeys is of the essence. So far this year on tour Staten has performed admirably with three top twenties and a 3rd. It is a gamble backing him in that he is a fairly inconsistent player but a small each way at large odds is worth it I feel. 0.25pts e/w @ 100/1 Various

Paul Claxton - Veteran (and old favourite of mine) Paul Claxton is a key pick for me this week based on the fact that he is exactly what this course demands, accurate. He ranks 30th in DA, 15th in GIR, 1st in total birdies and 6th in sand save percetage (which will aid him should he find himself in one of the many bunkers around this course). Claxton is also the model of consistency who has only missed three cuts this year, one of which being on the PGA tour, and although that elusive win is still missing off his season's CV he can still boast a 2nd in Louisiana. In terms of course form, there is plenty with Claxton having played here thirteen times from 1996 to 2011 and placed in the top ten three times  - 4/4/6. 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 Various

Gary Christian - My largest bet and my biggest fancy this week comes from a Web.com graduate of last year who has performed well on the greater stage having only missed six cuts in seventeen appearances and recording four top twenties amongst a much better class of player. With regards to stats on the PGA, he ranks 7th in driving accuracy, 29th in GIR, 35th in proximity to hole and 17th in hitting the green in regulation from 200 yards plus. One worrying thing for me is his lack of course form with five missed cuts and two average finishes in seven outings at Hillcrest but I am willing to overlook this in favour of his stats and form this year. 1pt e/w @ 28/1 Various

 

Total Staked - 5pts