Jacksonville Open

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The penultimate tournament to the Tour Championship stays in Florida this week at Ponte Vedra Beach for the Winn-Dixie Jacksonville Open on the Pete Dye designed Valley Course. This course is the sister site to the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course which features on the PGA Tour and maintains the high standard that the Stadium Course is known for with perfectly manicured greens and fairways and water on everyhole. Dye's Valley is also known for its wide fairways and large greens which have been noted for their speed so while accuracy wont be of a high premium, a decent putter most certainly will. There is a chance for the longer hitters to reach some of the par 5s in two shots, so distance off the tee will also be one of my main focus points as will a decent Links style player who will be able to deal with the high winds that got up here last year and could well feature again in 2012. For this reason I have also predominantly picked players who have an early tee time on the Thursday as to take advantage of the milder winds than those who tee off in the afternoon will experience.

My picks are as follows.

Scott Gardiner - Young Aussie Gardiner has had a sterling 2012 on the tour with 12 top 25s, six top 10s and two 2nd place finishes, not to mention only eight missed cuts in 23 appearances. Last week at the Miccosukee Championship (also in Florida) he finished 13th after arriving on the back of two missed cuts, ranking 13th in DD and 5th in accuracy, both of which will aid him around this track. Looking at his season's stats, we find he ranks 19th in DD and 15th in GIR but more importantly in terms of his performance on the green he massively appeals ranking 12th in putting average, 3rd in birdie average, 4th in par breakers, 4th in birdie or better percentage and 6th in par 5 birdie or better percentage (which will combine well with his length off the tee). All this coupled with the fact that he has played at the Valley Course twice and can boast a 32nd place finish and more recently a 7th place not to to mention his 7.35am tee time and I find it hard not to lump on. 1.5pts e/w @ 40/1 Bet365

Hudson Swafford - Another youngster, who has already brought home the bacon for us this year when we backed him for the Stadion Classic in nearby Georgia back in May, like Gardiner has an early tee time of 8.45am on Thursday. Swafford appears to be a player who is more comfortable when on familiar tracks as he showed when winning on his old college course in Athens, Georgia and the good news is that the young gun hails from Lakeland in Florida and now lives in Tallahassee, hopefully meaning that he will be accustomed to not only the area but the course too. Rather worryingly he arrives here on the back of four missed cuts and we have to look back to June for his last top 5 but a closer look at his stats revives my interest in him as he is 7th in DD, 14th in GIR, 5th in Par breaking, 5th in par 5 birdies or better, 4th in total eagles and 12th in total birdies. All this tells me that Swafford is a useful player on the green and I feel his first professional appearance at the Valley course may yield another result. 1pt e/w @ 125/1 Bet365

Luke List - Sitting in 3rd on the money list, List has had a wonderful year this year with only seven missed cuts from twenty two appearances, eleven top 25s, six top 10s, three 2nd places and a win. Stats wise he heads the tour in driving distance at over 320 yards, is a respectable 33rd in putting average, 2nd in birdie average, 5th in scoring average, 6th in total birdies and impressively, 1st in par 5 birdies or better. He ticks all the boxes in terms of both form and stats and we should note that he has an 8.05am tee time. So why is he not heading the betting then? Well that probably comes down to the two previous missed cuts on this course but I'm not going to let that worry me as this has been his break-out year and we should take advantage of his large price. 1.5 pts e/w @ 50/1 Paddy Power

Total Staked - 8pts