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Outright Picks - Nationwide Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
Mexico Open
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The Nationwide Tour travels south of the border to Mexico this week for the 54th installment of the Mexico Open. This will be the fifth year that this event is being played on the Nationwide Tour and the third year on the El Bosque course.

This week I shall be looking to El Bosque resident Oscar Serna's words in order to find my mold for my selections. in an interview on pgatour.com, Serna is quoted as saying, "I think the long hitter has the advantage. The course is over 7,700 yards, and there are four holes in a row that are very tough -- six, seven, eight and nine. I think they are the best holes on the golf course. No. 6 is a tough par 4, 536 yards. Next hole is a par 3, 270 yards, and the eighth is a par 5, 546 yards. No. 9 is a par-4, a lake on the left side and bunkers on the right. It's a really good hole". Based on these words I shall be looking for a long and accurate driver with the added attribute of being a decent scrambler and without question a player who not only has course form but is accustomed to a South American climate.

 

My picks are as follows.

 

Paul Haley II - Im being slightly forgiving with regards to Haley's ranking in Driving Distance (120th) simply because he ticks all the other boxes, and more, in abundance. A respectable 48th in Driving Accuracy, 19th in Scrambling, 22nd in Scoring Average (70.25) which will serve well on a Par 72, 26th in Birdie Average and 18th in Par 4 birdie or better. So his stats appear to suit the course and on closer inspection, Haley seems to thrive in the Central/Southern American climate. His sole win this year came in Chile (on another Par 72 track) and although missing the cut in Panama, he did finish a respectable 33rd in Colombia. The youngster may have missed the cut in his last two events but one of these was on the 'big boy's' tour and I think this has presented an opportunity to back a player who has won already this year at a price of almost 40 points higher than that of the market leader who is yet to win. 0.5pts e/w @ 55/1 Bet 365

Bronson La'Cassie - Sitting 5th in Total Driving (14th DA and 52nd DD), the Aussie fits my profile well despite his below average scrambling stats so far this year. What also catches my eye is that with four Par 5s and two Par 4s that measure well over 500 yards and therefore playing like Par 5s, La'Cassie's Par 5 birdie or better ranking of 7th bodes well. He has only made two out of nine cuts this year which is a slight worry but he did finish 6th in Colombia and I think his price is big enough for a gamble. 0.25pts e/w @ 400/1 Sky Bet

Adam Hadwin - The youn Canadian ranks 12th in Total Driving (26th DD and 50th DA) which is again a huge plus here but also boasts a respectable 54th in scrambling. Hadwin has missed his last two cuts and also had two MCs in Colombia and Panama but I am willing to overlook these in respect of his 9th in Mexico (Riviera Nayarit Classic) in 2010 and 26th in the Mexican PGA Championship last year, both on the Canadian Tour. 0.5pts e/w @ 80/1 Bet365

 

Total Staked - 2.5pts