South Georgia Classic

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The sixth year of the South Georgia Classic begins this week in Valdosta, Georgia. Five of the six tournament winners in 2012 are in the field, as well as the top-six players on the money list. Kinderlou Forest Golf Club was designed by Davis Love III and opened for play in 2004 and at 7,781 yards is the longest course on the Nationwide Tour.  Kinderlou ranked as the seventh-toughest course on the Nationwide Tour in 2011, with a scoring average of 72.441 (+0.441) and was the toughest course on the Nationwide Tour in 2010, with a scoring average of 73.187 (+1.187) so Scoring Average will be an important factor. Im also going to be looking for those who are obviously long off the tee but also players with decent PA/BA and strong Par 5 Performance or Birdie Average due to the four long Par 5s that grace the course.

My Picks are as follows.

Alex Aragon - I wouldn't normally back someone who won the last time out but Aragon really does fit the profile for me this week. 4th in PA, 2nd in PPR, 24th in Birdie Average, 22nd in Par 3 Performance, and 52nd in Par 5 Performance, and has a scoring average of 70.70 and averages 291 yds off the tee. His form this season has been patchy, obviously the highlight being his win at Stonebrae, with a 4th in Chile but also three missed cuts and two very average finishes in Panama and Colombia. He also missed the cut on his only appearance at Kinderlou Forest in 2009 but Im willing to overlook this on the basis I expect to see him carry over his momentum from California to here after a week long break. His price is too big for a proven winner. 0.5pts e/w @ 80/1 Bet 365

Hudson Swafford - Young Swafford hasn't exactly been on fire so far this season with two missed cuts and three average finishes but his last outing at the Stonebrae yielded a very respectable 16th place finish. What is worth highlighting about his performance in Califonia last week is that he managed to finally put together four consistent rounds where as in his previous showings he hasn't quite managed this, often slipping in a round of four or five over. His stats so far this year on tour also make me take a closer look at him, most notably his PA in which he ranks 4th with 1.703 (last week ne ranked 1st with 1.64!!) but also his Par 5 birdie or better stats where he sits in 21st and eagle and birdie average 2nd and 28th respectively. Couple this with his ability to hit the ball an average of 291yds off the tee and we have a winning combination in my eyes. One slight concern is his lack of course form but on closer inspection we find that he attended the University of Georgia and will be more than familiar with the local area, climate and more than likely the course. 0.5pts e/w @ 200/1 Stan James

Brian Anderson - This is a purely speculative punt, hence the small stakes. Anderson has no course form and has missed every cut on the tour this year but what stands out to me (other than the 1250 point better price at Bet365 to its peers) is his length off the tee, an average of 316 yds and a respectable Par 5 Performance of 4.73. Throw in the fact that he's 12th in GIR which can only be an advantage and I can't help myself. 0.25pts e/w @ 2000/1 Bet 365

Total Staked - 2.5pts