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Outright Picks - Nationwide Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
Stonebrae Championship
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Luke List - A respectable 9th in the Sobaba Classic last week was Luke's best finish since placing 2nd in Panama a month earlier. However, a missed cut and two other average performaces this season dont necessarily worry me as his game seems to fit Stonebrae as does his previous course form of 2nd in 2011 and 12th the year before. Ranking 2nd on the tour in DD, his length should be a massive advange on a course that is extremely long. He may not be the most accurate nor hit the most GIRs but he ranks 7th in Scrambling and this should also be a distinct advantage if he encounters any of the tricky hazards or rough around the course. 1pt e/w @ 28/1 Various

 

Russell Knox - Another player with great course form like List is Knox, finishing 2nd in a shortened Fresh Express Classic here last year. His three rounds that day were quite simply stunning, opening with a 65, shooting a 68 in the middle and closing with a 66. Knox is a graduate to the PGA from last year who is taking the step back down this week and while he hasnt really delivered on the 'big boys' tour with 6 out of 7 missed cuts, he may feel more comfortable back down at this level and also on a course where he so nearly won last year. He is 44th in DA and 74th in GIR on the PGA this season which shouldnt be taken lightly given the company he is in and given the links style feel of Stonebrae and the fact that the course architect is a fellow Scot, David McLay Kidd, I fancy him to go well. 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 Paddy Power

 

Justin Hicks - Hicks provided a nice each way payout for us last week and I'm hoping he will be able to go one better this week on a course where he finished 5th in 2010 with three rounds of 68 and a closing 65. So far this season Hicks can boast a mixed bag, with two missed cuts, two top tens and a top twenty. However, what catches my eye are his stats over his last two outings in Sobaba and Louisiana where he ranked highly in DA, GIR and Scrambling, while touching the 300 yard mark in DD, all key to success on this course. This is backed up by his season stats that read as follows, 27th DA, 12th GIR, 9th Scrambling and 54th DD, throw in a 5th in Par Breaking on a course where going low is a pre requisite and we have a genuine contender. 1pt e/w @ 50/1 Paddy Power

 

Doug Labelle II - I certainly wasnt looking to back Labelle here, especially given the fact that he has been woeful this season, placing no higher than 38th in three outings and scoring no better than level par. However, looking through course form Labelle does seem to stand out with a 4th in both 2011 and 2010 and a 15th the year before, he quite simply knows how to play this course. His stats dont particuarly stand out to me but on closer inspection he is a respectable 60th in DD, 35th in DA and a shockingly good 5th in Scrambling. Im willing to take a chance on the stand out price of 125/1 that Paddy Power are offering, especially considering Bet 365 opened with him @ 35/1 before moving him out to 50/1. 0.5pts @ 125/1 Paddy Power

 

Total Staked - 6pts