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Outright Picks - Web.com Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
Air Capital Classic
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This week's tournament, the Air Capital Classic, is one of the original events on the Web.com, or the Nationwide Tour as it was originally called at its inception in 1990. This will be the 14th year in a row that the Crestview Country Club has hosted the tournament and is the only 36 hole country club in Wichita with both courses having been designed by Robert Trent Jones back in 1969. The Air Capital Classic will be played on the North Course, a Par 71 track measuring 6,913 yards and where water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes.

It is clear that being a short course and playing host to so much water and numerous bunkers that protect the greens and fairways, accuracy will be the key attribute over power this week. It will be imperative to look for those players who rank highly in Driving Accuracy but more importantly GIR as attacking this course and making birdies is the way to win here. The last nine tournaments here have yielded a winning score of no more the 18 under so a combination of Scoring Average and Birdie or Better Conversion stats will help find a contender as will looking for someone who plays the par 5 holes well as two of the holes at Crestview were among the four easiest on tour last year.

One final thing worth mentioning is that Crestview is known for the wind getting up and all of the par 3 holes play into the predominant south wind so a player who is a wind specialist or from the Kansas or Oklahoma area will be at an advantage.

 

Fabian Gomez 1pt e/w @ 66/1 - Gomez ranks highly in every stat that I expect to come into play this week. He is 17th in Driving Accuracy, 16th in GIR, 8th in Scoring Average with 69.44, 15th in Ball Striking and 9th in Total Eagles. He has a rather mixed bag of results on tour this year with a best finish of only 11th but he can boast two top 10s here at crestview - a 2nd in 2007 and a 7th in 2008. Although he missed the cut last year he did open with a 66 to show that he knows how to negotiate the course. 

Ryan Spears - 0.25pts e/w @ 150/1 - I backed Spears last year and he disappointed but I'm willing to chance him again despite a disappointing 2014 so far. Little known by many this week is that Web.com rookie Spears used to work in the Pro shop at Crestview while at Wichita State University and actually still lives in Wichita. He has had the advantage of having had two weeks back home and preparing, playing the course and last year was quoted as saying, "I wouldn’t say I have an advantage...I think the only thing that I have over these guys is I’ve seen putts out here that they haven’t seen and I know what they do and don’t do". I would consider that an advantage myself as would the fact that Spears ranks 3rd in Driving Accuracy and 3rd in GIR on Tour.

Luke List 0.25pts e/w @ 175/1 - List is another player who has a rather indifferent year so far, varying a bunch of missed cuts with average finishes but it was his command of Par 5 holes that caught my eye. He leads the tour in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders and should be able to dominate the longer holes here that already rank relatively easy. Through into the mix his high ranking in eagle putts (3rd) and hopefully he should be posting some low scores. He has played the course four times before and always made the cut, posting a best finish of 15th as recently as last year.

Jace Long 0.1pts e/w @ 250/1 - Young Missouri graduate Jace Long made a name for himself here at Crestview last year when he finished 7th, carding a 2nd round 63 on the way. He missed all subsequent cuts following his standout performance and has only managed a season best of 5th on the NGA Tour so far this year but that did come last time out. This is purely a play on last year's performance but could reward at big odds. 

 

Total Staked - 3.2pts