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Outright Picks - Web.com Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
BMW Charity Pro-Am
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The BMW Charity Pro-Am is a unique tournament for the Web.com Tour as it is played over three separate courses over the first three days with the final round played on the host course, Thornblade Club. The other two courses used are the Green Valley Country Club (new for 2014) and the Reserve at Lake Keowee in Sunset. The tournament features a different format for the Web.com Tour,  pairing professionals with celebrities and amateurs in a best-ball format  similar to the  AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am on the PGA Tour.

Looking at the Thornblade course guide on the club's website I notice that the common theme with nearly all the holes here is the avoidance of the bunkers that tend to line the fairways. It is a Par 71, 7,024 yard track so it isn't particularly long but the fact that many tricky bunkers feature in the middle of some of the longer Par 4 and 5 holes, being able to drive them over these hazards will certainly prove useful. For this reason I think it is more important to concentrate on a player who ranks highly in Total Driving and not just Driving Accuracy, especially as Thornblade is used twice during the tournament.

The other two courses are both Par 72s and around the 7,000 yard mark, again initially implying that length is not a prerequisite off the tee. However, like Thornblade, Lake Keowee has strategically placed hazards around the fairways so Total Driving will again help. Green Valley is a slightly different beast in that this will be the first time it has been used but if it is anything like Greenville (the course it has replaced) it will feature tight tree lined fairways that will most certainly require accuracy over length.

Last year's winner Mark Anderson drove the ball over 305 yards, hit 83% of greens in regulation and had a driving accuracy percentage of close to 70. These stats seem to be the key to conquering certainly Thornblade and most likely Green Valley and Lake Keowee too.

Finally, I think it is worth mentioning that Clemson University is less than an hour away from all these courses and many of the current and former students are members of either Thornblade or Green Valley. Many of the younger South Carolinian players on the minor tours such as the eGolf Tour are granted access for free practice rounds. It is no surprise that local players do well in this tournament if they have the access to these tricky courses.

 

Jason Gore - 1.25pts ew @ 25/1 - Gore has been sharing his time between the Web.com and PGA Tours this year and has been enjoying success on both to a certain degree with two top 10s on the junior tour and a 4th at the Puerto Rico Open on the PGA. His last outing was a missed cut but this was at the highly competitive Wells Fargo Championship. Gore has played the BMW three times and made the cut each year, his best finish of 19th coming last year. he sits 22nd in GIR which will certainly help this week as will the fact that he seems to be a class above most of the competition this week. 

Roland Thatcher - 1pts e/w @ 66/1 - The thing that caught my eye with Thatcher was his course record of 61 on Thornblade in his first ever appearance there last year. Not only was this one impressive feat but it will certainly come in handy this year now that he has expericence and the fact that the course is played twice. He is 7th in GIR and a respectable 46th in Driving Accuracy for 2014 which will certainly suit this week. In terms of current form, Thatcher comes here having only missed two cuts in seven appearances for 2014 and in Panama and Louisiana carded stunningly low second rounds before fading, I consider him to be bubbling and hopefully this will be his breakout week.

Harold Varner III - 0.3pts e/w @ 100/1 - I think Varner has been pushed out a little too far on the back of his MC on his PGA debut last time out at the Wells Fargo. Previous to that he finished a credible 6th at the WNB Classic and had a chance to push on had they played the final round. He ticks the boxes in terms of stats in that he is 1st in GIR, 1st in Driving Distance, 49th in Total Driving and 11th in Ball Striking. He has never played the course before competitively but hails from the nearby East Carolina University so should hopefully be familiar with the conditions, if not the courses. 

Corbin Mills 0.15pts e/w @ 500/1 - Once touted as the next big thing after winning the the U.S. Public Links Championship and the Players Amateur in 2011 and subsequently recieving a Masters invite. His career has somewhat stalled and he finds himself on the Latinoamerican Tour where his best finish was 17th at the end of last month. It is a big ask for him to perform here but he is a Clemson graduate and will know the courses this week and so is well worth a small dabble at 500/1. 

 

Total Staked - 5.5pts