Brasil Champions

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We stay in South America this week for the second staging of The Brasil Champions at the Sao Paulo Golf Club, the same club that will host the 2016 Olympic Golf. As this is only the second year that this tournament has been in existence, there is very little in terms of course form to be found. However, we do know that Sao Paulo GC was built in the early 1930s under the young eye of Robert Trent Jones so it will most certainly have his stamp on it.  It is a classic layout with tree lined fairways and where water plays it part, most notably around holes 11-13 as well as holes 9 and 18. Accuracy will be key. Other than last year's tournament, the course hosted two prior events on the European Tour back in 2000 (The Brazil Sao Paulo 500 Years Open) and 2001 (Sao Paulo Brazil Open) so they are worth looking over for any hints towards a particular mould of player. Both Padraig Harrington (winner in 2000) and 2001 winner, Darren Fichardt, ranked highly in GIR (2nd and 1st respectively) and hit well over 80% of greens, again highlighting the importance of accuracy. Last year's key to success seems to be performance on Par 5 holes. Eventual winner Benjamin Alvarado scored 11 under through 16 Par 5s to give him a final score of -19 while runner up Dawie van der Walt managed an even better -13 on the Par 5s. With this in mind I shall be heavily focussing my picks on players who rank highly in the Par 5 Birdie or Better stat, Par 5 Performance, GIR and Driving Accuracy.

My Picks are as follows:  

Tim Petrovic 1pt e/w @ 66/1 - Going with Petrovic seemed a bit of a no brainer for me this week as he comes here on the back of a 14th place finish at the Puerto Rico Open on the PGA Tour. Yes, last week's tournament was a slightly depleted field owing to the WGC taking place but despite this, there were some top class players on display and this will be a step down for him. Last week he managed to hit 75% of fairways and 70% of greens in regulation whilst recording a score of -9 on the Par 5s, a repeat of that this week should be enough to see him up there at the top of the leaderboard. 

Derek Fathauer - 1pt e/w @ 70/1 -  Florida native Fathauer caused some headlines at the beginning of the month when he carded an opening round 67 at the Honda Classic on a sponsor's invite. He went on to finish an average 58th but not before he posted a third round of 69 too. He has typically flown a little under the radar since finishing the highest placed amateur in the 2008 US Open and can only lay claim to a highest finish of 4th at the United Leasing Championship back in 2012. However, in his first start this year on the Web.com he managed to place 8th in Colombia and so far this year has scored just under 53% of Par 5 chances at birdie or better. He has no course form here to speak of but today it was posted on twitter that he had carded a practice round of 59 at Sao Paulo. At high double figures I am more than willing to back him in the hope that he can repeat this feat.

Richard S Johnson - 1pt e/w @ 80/1 - Journeyman Richard Johnson returns to a course that he has actually played three times before, once on the Web.com last year and twice on the European Tour, finishing 6th last year, 11th in 2000 and runner up in 2001. This in itself is a definite reason to side with him as he will be one of only a handful of players to have had played Sao Paulo more than once, if at all. In 2013 he was 7th in Driving Accuracy and 6th in GIR so he is highly accurate but his Par 5 stats disappoint a little. However, I am willing to overlook his lacklusture Par 5 performance and instead focus on the fact that he sat 32nd in Par 3 performance which will also be key as there are five Par 3 to negotiate in Brazil. Johnson has made both cuts in the tournaments he has played in so far this year and his results are progressive, being 62/23 which bodes well for this week.

Aron Price - 0.5pts e/w @ 90/1 - Two missed cuts so far in 2014, both in South America, make Price a suspect choice for Brazil but I personally think his game is right for Sao Paulo GC. 2013 saw him finish 12th in the Driving Accuracy stat, 30th in GIR and a presentable 65th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, everything that I have highlighted is needed to succeed on this course. Price also has the advantage of having played Sao Paulo last year and finishing 14th, helped by a second round 65, so he should be able to kick start his year here.

Josh Broadaway - 0.25pts e/w @ 250/1 - Two missed cuts in his first two outings on the Web.com in 2014 tends to lead backers to avoid a player like Broadaway but I think he might just turn things around this week. In 2013, the Georgian ranked a respectable 66th in Driving Accuracy, 53rd in GIR and 30th in Ball Striking but more importantly he was 2nd in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders for the year with over 54%, he will most certainly need that attribute to go well this week. He also has course form as he posted three rounds in the 60s last year on his way to a 17th placed finish - if he can conquer the Par 5s then he will most certainly be in with a shout and is definitely worth a dabble at triple figure odds.

Philippe Gasnier - 0.25pts e/w @ 250/1 - A pure price play here and I suggest you jump on Stan James' offer of 250/1 as the other bookies pricing up this event have him, quite rightly, three times cheaper. He is a Brazilian golfer who has been around for a while, has Major experience in that he qualified for the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2008, albeit missing the cut, and can also boast a win in Brazil last year in the form of the Copa Clube de Campo de São Paulo. That win came back in September and saw him birdie five of the last seven holes to clinch the Latinoamerican developmental series tournament win in the same city as he will be teeing it up this week. He also has course form here at Sao Paulo GC, finishing a highly respectable 15th with three rounds in the 60s so he certainly knows his way around this track. As I say, it is purely a price play so I advise small stakes.

Total Staked - 8pts