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Outright Picks - Web.com Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
Chile Classic
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This week sees us back at the Prince of Wales Country Club for the third outing of the Chile Classic on the Web.com Tour. With the tournament again running parallel to the PGA's Puerto Rico Open and the WGC's Cadillac, a number of Web.com regulars have taken advantage of entitlements or invitations to step up a grade so a few familiar faces may be missing this week. While there may be a number of new faces teeing it up, including sponsor's invites, local players and Latinoamerica Tour graduates, we do at least have two years of previous form and stats to peruse.

The Prince of Wales CC is the shortest course on the Web.com circuit at just over 6,700 yards and yet plays to a par of 72 so we can expect plenty of birdies this week and a low winning score. Last year's winner Kevin Kisner carded -21 while Paul Haley won back in 2012 with a massive score of 22 under The cut last year was 3 under and worse and even 68th placed Aaron Price finished level par for the tournament. The key to scoring are the highly birdieable Par 5s - four in total, Haley was -10 over the week and Kisner -6 on them so finding someone who ranks highly in the Par 5 birdie or better stat is a must.

As a tree-lined course with narrow fairways and wind coming in to play, there is no doubt that hitting the fairways will be essential this week so Driving Accuracy and Ball Striking will be the other stats to bear in mind. Evidence for this can be found in Haley's claim back in 2012 when he said that the course required, "shot makers [who could] work the ball in both directions".

As well as last year's results, we do also have a 2011 Tour de Las Americas outing for the Abierto de Chile Copa to look back on. However, I'm not sure that there can be too much information obtained from scrutinising the results. I would not rule out a good performance in 2011 but would be careful to remind of the quality of a minor feeder tour field.

My tips for this week are as follows:

Andrew Putnam - The younger of the Putnam brothers will want to follow in his brother's footsteps this year and gain his PGA Tour card and has most certainly started well, finishing 2nd in Colombia in the opening Web.com tournament of 2014. That runner up finish last month was even more impressive given the fact that it was well documented that Putnam had been suffering from food poisioning. If he can replicate a Scoring Average of 67.33, Birdie Average of 5.33 and the 55% of Birdie or Better conversions on Par 5s that he made despite being under the weather then he should do well this week. Evidence to support his Par 5 prowess can be found in the fact that he sat 39th for 2013 in the Par 5 Birdie or Better stat at just over 46%. In terms of form, Putnam has played the Prince of Wales Country Club before, finishing a rather average 47th last year but the thing that stands out from his performance and inspires me to back him this week is that he book-ended two rounds of 67 and 65 respectively, a combined 13 under! 1pt e/w @ 40/1

Sam Saunders - The 26 year old grandson of Arnold Palmer has long shown promise but has never really delivered on the professional scene with his best result to date being a runner up finish at the Utah Championship back in 2012. He is a player who likes to go low though as his -15 finish on his way to 12th place at last year's Chile Classic proves. He has started 2014 well with a 5th place last month in Colombia, converting over 55% of his birdie or better opportunities on Par 5s and recording a Scoring Average of 68.33. Couple this with his 2013 Birdie or Better conversion percentage of just over 50 and ranking of 12th and his 58th ranking in Total Driving and I think we have a player who should be able to negotiate the Prince of Wales Country Club easily. 0.5pts e/w @ 100/1 Various

Scott Harrington - I was rather surprised to find Harrington at triple figures this week and for that reason I advocate a decent bet on him as, put quite simply, the American ticks all the right boxes to succeed in Chile. Firstly, lets look at Harrington's stats - in 2013 he was 12th in Driving Distance at just over 308 yards (meaning he has good length to make the birdieable Par 5s), 28th in Total Driving, 47th in Ball Striking and an impressive 17th in Par 5 Birdie or Better conversion rate at just under 50%. In terms of form, he can boast a 6th place here on this course in last year's Chile Classic in what was his first and only appearance and his mediocre 54th place in Colombia last month was his first outing since September 2013, so a great warm up considering he would have been rusty. One final thing to note is that Harrington's best performances seem to have come on courses where low scores are essential. Last year his best performance (bar the Chile Classic) was a 6th in the Midwest Classic where he carded -14 and if we look back to his best ever finish on the Web.com, at the Price Cutter Championship where he finished runner up, he carded 21 under there. 1pt e/w @ 125/1 Sky Bet

Total Staked - 5pts