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Outright Picks - Web.com Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
Chiquita Classic
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2014 marks the second hosting by the Club at Longview of the Chiquita Classic and also the second event of the four tournament Web.com Finals. It is an exceptionally tough course as highlighted by the Course Superintendent when he said, "This is absolutely beautiful for the eye, challenging for the best players in the world and will produce a great championship". For this reason I will be concentrating on those players who are experienced and a class above, more than likely those who have taken a step down from the PGA in order to retain their cards.

Longview is a Jack Nicklaus designed course like we saw last week and it too features rolling hills, tree lined fairways, a variety of elevation changes and a number of water hazards. A six mile creek runs through the course and can come into play on seven holes while numerous small lakes also feature on seven holes. For this reason, and as we did last week, a premium will be placed on accuracy, particuarly GIR and Driving Accuracy. The course is only just over 7000 yards so being able to hit the ball for distance won't be a huge attribute. However, there are four par 3 holes here so it may well be worth keeping a keen eye out for those who have decent stats in par 3 Performance.

My picks are as follows:

Colt Knost - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 - I am quite surprised to see Knost at 50s this week after his excellent performance last week at the Hotel Fitness Championship. His runner up spot showed progressive form in as much as his previous three outings yielded the following results: 5th, MC, 4th and in each performance he has consistently ranked in the top 10 for Driving Accuracy, top 20 for GIR and topped the rankings in Scrambling. He contradicts my logic in as much as he isnt stepping down from the PGA as he has been on the Web.com Tour all year but he is still desperate to regain his card he lost last year.

Joe Durant - 1pt e/w @ 55/1 - Wily veteran Durant has been sharing his time between the Champion's tour and the PGA this year and has shown consistent form on both. He has six top 10s on the Senior Tour and can boast that he still cuts it with the youngsters on the PGA with finishes of 11th, 12th and 17th. He is one of the most accurate players on all of the tours, consistently recording top 10 rankings in Driving Accuracy and typically in the top 25 for GIR, so he should suit this course this week and definitely has the level head to negotiate a tricky shot-making track.

Roberto Castro - 1pt e/w @ 55/1 - Roberto is a player who I expected to go well last week but ultimately disappointed despite a first round 67. He came to the Hotel Fitness Championship on the back of a highly respectable 18th at the Wyndham Championship earlier in August on the PGA and should he had carried that form over he would have sailed through the field. Despite his 41st place finish the thing that caught my eye with Castro were his stats, he was still 2nd in Driving Accuracy and 10th in GIR, attributes that will certainly come into play at Longview. It is also worth noting that some of Castro's best form comes in the state of North Carolina where we find ourselves this week, he was 18th at the Wyndham and 8th at the Wells Fargo this year, so hopefully his fondness for the area will spur him on.

Ben Curtis - 1pt e/w @ 100/1 - Despite the missed cut last week I am willing to chance Curtis as on his day he is a classy player, so classy that he won a major back in 2003 at the Open. He had a relatively poor season on the PGA by his standards, hence why he finds himself here, but did manage to record some decent finishes at the Houston Open (12th), Memorial Tournament (6th) and Canadian Open (12th). A man with such experience should have no problem in negotiating a tough track and it is well known that he is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on tour which will certainly stand him in good stead.

Carlos Sainz Jr - 0.25pts e/w @ 175/1 - My outside bet of the week comes in the form of Sainz who has been progressing relatively well as the season comes to a close. He finished a respectable 19th last week amongst much stronger company than usual and at the start of the month was runner up at the Price Cutter Charity Championship. However, what appeals to me the most is the fact that he has been highly consistent in his Driving Accuracy and GIR stats over the last few weeks, ranking well within the top 40 and more often than not in the top 15 for both. If he can get his accuracy up to speed again this week then he could be contending.

Total Staked - 8.5pts