Louisiana Open

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Its been a frustrating couple of weeks with seriously close calls coming up just short and players tipped the week before showing up and placing the week after! For this reason I will tone down the staking plan slightly until we find that winner but with more form and stats to work with and some 'close but no cigar' calls, I am confident we are close.

On to American soil this week for the first time in 2014 for the Web.com Tour Chitimacha Louisiana Open at LeTriomphe Country Club. A fixture on the junior tour since 1992, LeTriomphe is only a 7,004 yard long, Par 71 track and this in part explains why the winning score here is consistently around the 20 under mark. The Louisiana Open is slightly unusual in the sense that there are four Par 5 holes and five Par 3s, which inevitably means that a player who ranks highly in both Par 3 and 5 performance is likely to do well here. A prime example of this can be found when assessing 2013 winner Edward Loar's card that shows he played the Par 5s in 12 under and runner up Morgan Hoffmann played the Par 3s in 6 under for the week. GIR is another vital stat this week with both the winner and 2nd place in 2013 ranking over 76% of greens hit and the top two in 2012 hitting over 80% of greens.

Looking over past results at LeTriomphe also throws up another interesting stat to keep an eye on, driving distance. A number of winners here are long off the tee, in part this could be attributed to the often soggy Louisianan climate and course at this time of year, but this is definitely something to bear in mind. Brett Wetterich (2011 Winner) has a reputation for being a bomber, regularly hitting the ball over 300 yards, Ryan Hietala (2005) and Jimmy Walker (2004) are known for being long hitters and even last year's winner Loar is no slouch off the tee, averaging 304 yards for the tournament and 309 yards for the year.

My picks are as follows:

Fabian Gomez - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 - A pure play on the course form that Gomez has shown over the three times that he has played here. A winner in 2010, the Argentinian managed a runner up spot the next time he played the course in 2012, in fact his worst finish was a pretty impressive 15th on his course debut back in 2008. He still has limited playing rights on the main tour and last year sat 9th in Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders amongst stronger competition and recorded a driving average of over 290 yards. He comes here on the back of his best finish of 2014 so far in Panama (11th) where he recorded a final round of 66.

Adam Hadwin - 1pt e/w @ 45/1 - Hadwin has already won this year on the Web.com when he took the trophy at the Chile Classic but his two perfomances since have yielded distintively average results. He has played LeTriomphe twice in the last two years with a missed cut and an 18th which included a 63 and would have looked a lot better had it not been for a poor final round of 73. He is now a stronger, more mature player and most importantly has a win behind him to give him the confidence to go on and fulfill the promise he showed when recording two top tens in five appearances on the PGA Tour back in 2011. His game seems to suit LeTriomphe as he is ranked 7th for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders in 2014 and over the last six months ranks 8th in GIR and 3rd in Driving Distance. 

Casey Wittenburg - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 - Wittenburg was a popular choice amongst tipsters last week owing to his strong finish on his way to 5th in Brasil the week before and probably due to the fact that he only recently lost his PGA Tour card. The 29 year old has a great CV which includes a 13th place finish as an amateur at the Masters in 2004 and a 10th in the US Open. He is a previous winner of this event back in 2012 when he shot the lights out, carding -24 with two 66s, a 63 and a final round 65 and has only missed the cut once in four outings here. So far this year he is 10th in Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders and over the last six months ranks 8th in GIR on the Web.com. Hopefully a return to the scene of his first 2012 victory that led to him being voted the Tour player of the year will inspire him this week.

Steve Wheatcroft - 0.3pts e/w @ 66/1 - I'm siding with Wheatcroft for a number of reasons this week which include the fact that he is 2nd in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders so far this year and 4th in Driving Distance over the last six months. He comes here on the back of a season best 11th in Panama and while his two other results dont stand out, he is yet to miss a cut. In terms of course form, Wheatcroft has played LaTriomphe four times, missing the cut in his first two attempts he as since failed to record a finish of no worse than 18th.

Brett Wetterich - 0.3pts e/w @ 66/1 - Again, a pure course form play as Wetterich is a two time winner here in 2003 and 2011 and in eight outings has only missed the cut twice but finished in the top three three times, or 37.5%. There are no stats available for him on the PGA Tour site but I do know that he is a winner on the full tour back in 2006 and a three time winner on the Web.com, so he can win and I would want to be onside when he plays the site where he has recorded 66.66% of those wins.

Henrik Norlander - 0.3pts e/w @ 100/1 - I like the look of the young Swede this week despite the fact that this will be his first outing in Louisiana, as his game seems ideally suited to the course. So far in 2014 he sits 14th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders while last year on the main tour he was 13th in the same stat, not to mention a respectable 47th in Par 3 birdie or Better Leaders, 36th in Driving Distance at 295 yards and 31st in GIR. Despite all these high rankings, Norlander dropped down to the Web.com for 2014 but has started well with a 3rd place in Chile which is, coincidentally, another low scoring course like he will find this week and where he recorded a score of -14 on the Par 5 holes. 

Total Staked - 7.8pts