Panama Championship

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A trip to Central America for the Panama Claro Championship is in order for the Web.com Tour this week. A regular fixture on the circuit since 2004, Panama Golf Club offers a wealth of course form and sees four previous winners on the course tee it up in a bid to claim the 2014 title.

Panama must go down as one of, if not the hardest, tracks on the Web.com Tour, consistently refusing to allow low scoring. This can be highlighted by the fact that only 20 players managed to break par a year ago and in 2013 Edward Loar’s winning score was just -4 while only six players broke par. It is a Par 70 course that recorded a scoring average of 71.199 last year, 72.027 in 2012 and 70.956 in 2011, so a key attribute to look for when selecting a player for this tournament is obviously Scoring Average.

A quick look down the leader boards over the last couple of years and it becomes apparent that those who managed to break par seemed to pick up birdies on the par 5 holes. Last year's winner Foley was -3 on the Par 5s, runner up Goggin was -5 while 2012 winner Loar was 4 under and 2nd placed Luke List -6.

As much as I would like to say that course form is of huge importance here, I simply can’t as the last three winners in Foley, Loar and Goggin were first time visitors to Panama. However, it would be wrong to dismiss anyone who has played well here before, emphasised by Matthew Goggin's runner up finish last year.

One final thing to note, which may be a slightly tenuous link but it is worth noting the similarity between the results at Panama Claro and those at the Wichita Open. Matthew Goggin is a winner at both venues in the same year and the runner up to him in 2011, Kyle Thompson, can boast finishes of 6th and 10th at Panama GC. It seems that those who tend to perform in one of these tournaments can often be found in the top 20 of the other and visa versa.

My tips for this week are as follows:

Matthew Goggin - 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1 - I have mentioned him numerous times in the above write up and as a result he just has to be backed. He has finishes of 1st (2011) and 2nd (2013) here in the two years that he has played the tournament, recording Par 5 scores of -3 and -5 respectively and has not carded a round worse than Par. He is 39 years old and mature and experienced enough to be able to negotiate a tough track like this, plotting every shot and not being overly aggressive on the holes that require plotting. His stats seem to suit the course too - so far in 2014 he has a Scoring Average of 69.88 and a Par 5 Birdie or Better % of 46.67 and if we look back to last year we see he was 30th in Par Breaking, 28th in Scoring Average and 15th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Conversions. Goggin is a four time winner on the Web.com, one of which came on this course, so has all the experience necessary to excel here and comes here on the back of a highly respectable 12th at the Brasil Champions. We missed the 40/1 he opened at but 33s are still large enough to take.

Will Wilcox - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 - Wilcox can already boast an 8th placed finish on the PGA Tour this year at the Sony Open - another Par 70 course like he will find in Panama. He was simply on fire last year in terms of stats, 5th in Scoring Average with 69.27, 2nd in Birdie Average, 2nd in Par Breaking, 9th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders and 1st in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders. Although only finishing 43rd in Puerto Rico on his last start, Wilcox managed to record a score of -9 on the Par 5s which will definitely help this week.

Shawn Stefani - 0.25pts e/w @ 90/1 - Stefani had two top 10s on the PGA Tour in 2013, one of which was a 7th at the St Jude Classic - a Par 70 track. He was also 9th here in Panama back in 2012, the same year that he won the Par 70 Midwest Classic, he obviously has an affinity for the lower Par courses. In 2013 on the PGA he was 58th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders and an impressive 37th in Strokes Gained Putting.

Peter Tomasulo - 0.3pts e/w @ 125/1 - Tomasulo has started the season relatively well, despite his missed cut last week he has managed a 57th in Chile and an 8th in Colombia. I know I mentioned that course form wasn't imperative but on the basis the Tomasulo has played this course five times, only missed the cut once and last year recorded his best finish here (13th) I am willing to side with him on this basis. Over the last six months he sits 7th in Par 5 Performance and 17th in Scoring Average which will hold him in good stead this week. 

Troy Kelly - 0.2pts e/w @ 200/1 - This is a risky pick as Kelly had a disastrous year last year on the PGA Tour, his best finish was 62nd at Pebble Beach but this could be attributed to the knee problem he was forced to have surgery on in April 2013. That being said, Kelly has not started 2014 overly well on the Web.com with a 23rd in Chile and a MC last week in Brasil. However, back in 2011 when last on the Web.com Tour full time he was 10th in Scoring Average, 23rd in Par Breaking and 19th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders. What also leads me towards him is that back in 2012 he recorded his best finish ever with a 2nd in the Greenbrier Classic (another Par 70 track like he will find this week) on the PGA, losing in a tightly fought play-off to Ted Potter Jr.

Total Staked - 6.5