Mexico Championship

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The Web.com is back this week and arrives in Mexico for the El Bosque Mexico Championship. This is the seventh year of the event and the fifth year on the El Bosque course. Weighing in at just over 7,700 yards, the course plays to a Par 72 but is one of the toughest on tour, often playing to an average of closer to 73. Being so long and being home to a number of tricky hazards including a large lake on the 9th hole, an excellent driver of the ball will almost certainly triumph this week and a player ranking highly in Total Driving should be favoured. Given the couse reguarly plays over its par value then we should also look for someone with a decent scoring average. It is also worth noting that those players who fared well last year (winner Carlos Ortiz, Justin Tomas, Adam Hadwin and Daniel Berger) all went on to graduate to the main tour and all have kicked on and performed well. On this basis we should be looking for a top quality player who looks like they too will adapt well to the PGA, these players all rank highly in Ball Striking.

My picks are as follows:

Wes Roach - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 - I backed Roach last year after he had a break out year on the tour in only his third full year. He now has PGA tour experience and looks like a player who would grasp another opportunity on the big boy tour. This year he is 2nd in Total Driving, 1st in Bal Striking and 15th in Scoring Average (69.47). You ca also throw into the mix 1st in GIR, 3rd in Putting Average and 4th in Eagles for good measure. A string of missed cuts and average finishes were negated by a 3rd in Chile and a 65 in Louisiana before he was DQ'd. He was 2nd here back in 2013 so knows how to play the course and I expect him to be challenging this week.

Casey Wittenburg - 0.25pts e/w @ 80/1 - Doesn't reallt fit the profile for a player to succeed around this course but has had a crack at the PGA and looked like a played who could excel there given another chance. He has proven himself at a US Open as an amatuer but faded slightly recently. I am hoping that a return to a familiar track where he has previously excelled - 9th, 6th and 19th - will jolt him back into life.

Rick Cochran III - 0.25pts e/w @ 90/1 - A player i followed closely on the Latinoamerican Tour and one who looked like he could cut the mustard in better company. He sits 8th in Total Driving, 3rd in Ball Stricking, 2nd in GIR and has a Scoring Average of 69.89 so should fit the course well. He also has plenty experience of Latin American conditions and can boast a 6th in Panama, not to mention a 4th in Louisiana last time out, he is definitely a simmering player.

Steve Allan - 0.25pts e/w @ 110/1 - Aussie veteran Allan has had a great start to the 2015 season recording his best ever finish on tour with a 2nd in Colombia back at the start of March. He can also lay claim to a 16th in Louisiana last week with three strong rounds before a weak final round removed him from challenging for the title. Back in Novemenr last year he finished 15th in the Australian Open amongst strong company so seems to have found something in his game. Looking at his stats he is 3rd in total Driving, 2nd in Ball Striking and 6th in GIR. His Scoring Average of 70.27 is a little bit of a concern but is still well below the par value of the course and worth chancing.

Tag Ridings - 0.25pts e/w @ 275/1 - The journeyman ticks a few boxes for me this week, 8th in Total Driving, 8th in Ball Striking and 31st in scoring Average at 69.86. Although he does not fit the profile of being a young and up and coming player ready to take the PGA by storm, he does have some good course form, finishing 8th in 2010 and 35th in 2012 (where he opened with a 66). At 275/1 he is simply too big a price to miss especially when you factor in his decent finish of 16th in Chile back in March.

Total Staked - 4pts