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Outright Picks - Web.com Tour

Tipster: Bill

Odds: Outright

 
 
News Sentinel Open
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This week the tour heads to Knoxville, Tennessee for the Sentinel Open. Fox Den Counrty Club boasts long fairways, eight water features and 50 strategically placed bunkers. It also claims that its large greens are well protected and demand a tactical approach. In short, what I gather from this course is that accuracy will be of a premium and for this reason I will be making my primary focus ball striking. It is also apparent that the average winning score in the history of the tournament, has been around 17 under and it is obvious that there is a premium on scoring and good putting. For this reason, I will also be looking for player who rank highly in bogey avoidance and scoring average.

 

My picks are as follows.

 

Michael Kim 0.5pts e/w @ 28/1- A great young player who will surely do well on the main tour when he makes it there. He has four top tens this year and has only missed three cuts, it wont be long before he gets his breakout first win. This is his debut on the course but it should suit him given that he ranks 2nd in Ball Striking, 7th in Putting Average, 8th in Birdie Average, 4th in Scoring Average, 4th in Bogey Avoidance and 1st in the Overall ranking. This could be his week.

Darron Stiles 0.5pts e/w @ 30/1- One man who has terrific course form is Stiles who can boast a 3rd last year, win in 2012 and 2002 as well as another top ten back in 2004. He has shown a recent upturn in form with a runner up finish at the Digital Ally Open and despite a MC last week, I really like him here. He doesn't rank too highly in Ball Striking but is 4th in Driving Accuracy and 1st in Scrambling should he miss the greens. He is also 4th in Putting Average, 1st in Putts Per Round, 10th in Scoring Average and 8th in Bogey Avoidance.

Bronson Burgoon 0.375pts e/w @ 66/1 - The young player hit my radar for a couple of reasons, firstly and most obviously that he finished 2nd here last year on his first attempt but perhaps more subliminally, I have backed him because he is a Texan. Looking at past results, Texans seem to have performed well here - Martin Piller won in 2014, Hunter Haas won in 2006 and 2003 and JJ Henry won in 2000. Burgoon is Texas born and raised and also attended college there so I am hoping the connection pays off. He is 41st in Ball Striking, 10th in GIR, 27th in Birdie Average and 9th in Total Birdies. He started the year well and had three top tens within the last two months so hopefully should perform again on a course he likes.

Roland Thatcher 0.125pts e/w @ 250/1 -A wise old head is supposedly needed to negotiate this course and Thatcher certainly brings that to the fold. A veteran of the PGA tour and full of experience, he has also performed well on this track before, 7th in 2003 and 9th in 2007. He comes here on the back of 3 missed cuts on the Web.comand that would explain his price but he was 3rd in the BMW Charity Pro-Am back in May and should have the game for this course. He is 45th in Ball Striking, 3rd in Scrambling and a respectable 54th in Scoring Average. He is a long shot but worth a scrap at a large triple price.

 

Total Staked -  3pts