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Update: 2-0 and +2.3 units for the final day, but only 6-5 and +1.00 units for the week. What an amazing finish! Tiger is seven behind Gogel after nine holes, but finishes eagle-birdie-par-birdie to put the pressure on Gogel; maybe it worked to his advantage to be three holes ahead! Woods deserves to tie Hogan's record after today's performance around Pebble Beach. Needless to say, he beat Lehman in our 72-hole matchup. For a Tour rookie though, Gogel has yet again beaten an awful lot of expectations and we were sure glad of that to get him at +125 against Brooks who was never in the tournament after Gogel opened with three birdies. The final margin of victory was an unrepresentative three shots. In the other matchup, Day came from behind to beat Mediate by two shots. Disappointing week otherwise. Azinger missed the cut by one place and one shot; his two opponents narrowly made the cut. Calc even went to defeat another of our picks, Jeff Sluman, by four shots after trailing to him briefly on the back nine today. The mismatch of the week, the Sutherland brothers, turned out to be a sucker punch! David collapsed with a 78 today, but that was a day too late. Kevin had already missed the cut by three. The cut did give us one early win though in the shape of Davis Love over Hal Sutton, but after Love closed with a 67 [despite finishing with two bogeys] there was little chance of Sutton being close anyway. However Sutton did bring us one loss. He shot 75 in round 2 to lose to Janzen by one shot. And I did say he doesn't play well in pro-ams ... Of the two remaining matchups to report on, Day beat Leonard by one in round 2 and then there's Lickliter vs. Garcia. Lickliter was five shots clear in this matchup when I stopped watching the golf. Time to go and spend the winnings. Wrong! Lickliter took a quadruple-bogey SEVEN at the par-3 17th and Sergio stole a push with a birdie at the last What a week! On Thursday it's the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines. Let's hope for dry weather!
Okay, missed first golf day in a very long time. Other things matter sometime, if not all the time No time to look at these properly or write up some analysis. But Day looks a good play @ +105 with Moneyplays. William Hill have him +110 but the 5 cents for a tie is worth the buy. The other I like is Matt Gogel to beat Mark Brooks @ +125 with William Hill. When GoTo have him -125 and Moneyplays -110, worth taking the risk on the tie. That's the only time I've got now. I'm ready for a new tournament!
Update: Yet more chaos at this event. The 1st round took two days to complete and being on different courses made a huge difference. So not much point going through how each pick is faring other than to say that every one is still looking in decent shape apart from Azinger over Calcavecchia. The damage was done to Zinger's round in the torrid conditions at Pebble Beach on Thursday. He finished the round yesterd}ypuaceafour-over and six behind Calc. However, Calc's score was made on Poppy Hills so expect some narrowing of that gap over the weekend. The only result was a seven-shot victory for our first round pick, Vijay Singh over Justin Leonard. Again, the course mattered! And so it shall again in today's 2nd round picks; every one chosen has the players on separate courses today. The weather is not forecast to be as severe: only a 40% chance of rain, mainly showers, and winds up to 15mph. So again it will be a day to avoid Pebble Beach where the winds will be strongest and where the greens are the smallest. The first pick does not involve Pebble Beach though. Glen Day [Poppy Hills] is favored to beat Justin Leonard [Spyglass Hill]. Poppy Hills is by far the easiest course of the three, while Spyglass Hill has historically been the hardest of them. It combines holes along the coast with holes that dart through the pine forests. Very unusual, very narrow and bitterly complained about by the pros in the early days as being unplayable. While the weather affects Pebble Beach the most, this course is intimidating enough in its own right. As was written when opposing Leonard in the first round, he was no real record in this event and neither do good putters. In 67th place, he should find it difficult to make headway. Day is one shot better than Leonard after his 1st round at Spyglass Hill in which he came back yesterday to complete the second nine in two-under-par. On Poppy Hills he should carry on in the same vein. Hal Sutton had a similar profitable return to Pebble Beach yesterday; he finished the second nine in three shots under the par and it lifted him back into contention. He is being pitted against Lee Janzen who is very much in contention at four-under-par, and that at Pebble Beach. It is a good performance for someone who has chosen not to play in this event since 1995 and before then missed the cut half of the time. Today Janzen plays Spyglass Hill, Sutton plays Poppy Hills. Despite his dislike for pro-am golf, Sutton in his current form should be able to wreak havoc upon that course! The final pick for the 3rd round is Frank Lickliter to beat Sergio Garcia. Yes, you guessed it, Lickliter is playing Poppy Hills and Sergio isn't He's playing at Pebble Beach. It's very much early season for the young Spaniard and after his missed cut last week, a one-under-par score round Poppy Hills in the 1st round is no indicator of a return to form. At Pebble Beach he will have his work cut out to stay where he is. Lickliter had a very solid first round at Spyglass Hill: one birdie and one bogey. What a change from last Sunday! But his finishes this year read 67th, 28th and 10th. By that progression he should have a good week! He is obviously in good form and on an easy course today he should get quite a bit closer to keeping up that trend. The starnet books have offered an unusual series of props: tournament-end matchups involving players who are on the same score after round one. Centrebet regularly do the same thing after rounds 1 and 2, though they are only updated odds of their pre-tournament matchups not completely new ones. Of these, one in particular takes the eye: Jeff Sluman to beat Mark Calcavecchia. As already outlined, Calc has already has his 'easy' round; Sluman's first-round 70 was recorded at Pebble Beach; he plays at Poppy Hills today and should open up a decent lead over his opponent. While Sluman does not have a very good record in this event at all, when it hosted the US Open in 1992 [as this year] he was 2nd in this event and the Open that year. Could history repeat itself? Staking plan: Glen Day to beat Justin Leonard @ +115 with Moneyplays Hal Sutton to beat Lee Janzen @ -110 with Bowmans Frank Lickliter to beat Sergio Garcia @ +110 with Enterbet, GoTo or Moneyplays Jeff Sluman to beat Mark Calcavecchia [54 holes] @ -115 with Sportfanatik and the other starnet books
AT&T Pebble Beach Once again 'Crosby weather' looks likely to be a factor this week. Whether this tournament was under the guise of its former name, the 'Bing Crosby Pro-Am', or its current name, it has far too often been destroyed by rain. Last year the final round was washed out; the year before the final round was washed out for two days and had to be played six months later; four years ago the tournament had to be cancelled altogether. The forecast is for rain, which adds another factor to be taken into account when 'capping this event. It will be tragic if the rains ruin this event again, for in Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach, this event is played on two of the best courses in the world. Nine of the 18 holes at Pebble Beach run along the Pacific Ocean; but not just alongside, rather on the craggy cliffs that look down on the Pacific. There are few better finishing holes than the 18th at Pebble Beach. It is probably the most spectacular golf course in the world. Spyglass Hill is nowhere near as dramatic, but it is certainly every bit as difficult. This is a pro-am without the concessions to 'giggle golf'. The only concession that is made is that the greens will be slower than usual. For people who have struggled with their putter of late, including Mr. Duval, this will be good news. The third course, Poppy Hills is the easiest of the three and it is important to be playing this course when the weather is foul; scores can escalate very quickly at the other two. In particular, if the wind is strong, you really don't want to be on the cliffs at Pebble Beach. The courses are quite different so there is no one type of player that plays well at this event, but as usual with these events, being comfortable players with amateur celebrities who will shoot horrendous scores is an important part of surviving until Sunday. Given the projected weather conditions/course rotation and the general rating of the players involved there are quite a number of picks. Though it is notable that they are mainly with the Euro books who make up their own matchups. The LVSC lines appear to be pretty sharp this week We're doubling up on Paul Azinger first of all. It was nine years ago that Zinger won this event and he finished 3rd the year after. A lot has happened since. But in his rehabilitation to Tour golf again it is noteworthy that in both 1997 and 1998 his finish in this event was his season best; 7th and 3rd place finishes respectively. He followed that up last year with a 10th place. A man for this event, he tops the 3-year scoring averages with 69.10. He did miss the cut last week, but that can surely be put down to a reaction against the emotion-charged week in Hawaii. With Payne Stewart being remembered this week, the adrenalin will be in full flow once more. He's being matched up against Mark Calcavecchia and Steve Elkington. Calc put in a good performance last week to finish 7th and has a reasonably good record in this event over the years, but he has chosen to skip it several times of late. It can be as much an indication of how well a player expects to play as their actual finishes when they did play. In the other pro-am this year he was a lowly 59th. We expect more of the same, whereas Zinger is a real challenger for a top-3 finish this week. With Elkington, it is another case of an excellent record in this event - he has been in the top-20 in his last six attempts here. But apart from his storming final round charge to win the Doral-Ryder Open, last year was a disappointing one for Elkington. He opened this year with a poor 18th [of 30] in the Mercedes. Looks to be playing well below his best. A charge that cannot be directed at his opponent. The next is Tiger Woods to beat Tom Lehman. Clear and simple, no contest. Yes, there's the pressure of a sixth consecutive win, but if you can handle the pressure of a 3rd or 4th or 5th consecutive win then you're just that little bit special! For Lehman, this week will be like last week for Azinger. An emotional victory in front of his home crowd will have its effect on Lehman; this week will be a huge anticlimax, particularly if the putter starts cold. Extremely short odds, but totally justified. Next up is David Love to beat Hal Sutton. Love's suspect back seemed to hold up quite well last week, he was certainly striking the ball well. His record in this event is decent: top-30 in five of his last six appearances and importantly he has wanted to play here every year since 1986. Usually excellent from tee to green, the slower greens suit him. This event historically does not go to a top putter. Not that Sutton is such a good putter either, but despite his showing in the last two events (5th and 4th), he is not at home in a pro-am environment. He has played in this event just three times out of its last six stagings; he missed the cut in two of them. The final 72-hole matchup is Kevin Sutherland to beat his brother David. Sorry, but this looks a complete mismatch to me Kevin is currently 1st in the early-season greens in regulation stats, David is 90th. In terms of scoring averages, Kevin is 12th, David is currently 125th. That says a lot about their current form! What is more, Kevin has a much better record in this type of event: 6th in the Vegas twice in the last three years [David's highest finish is 49th]; 8th and 23rd in the 'Hope' the last two seasons [David has never made the cut!]; 15th here last year [David has missed the cut four years out of six]. The draw has not been that kind to Kevin, but we can be assured that come Sunday, no matter what their positions may be, they'll have their eye on this matchup as well! The final pick is for the 1st round only: Vijay Singh to beat Justin Leonard. It is the ideal combination for the weather/course rotation: Vijay is playing at Poppy Hills while Leonard will be playing at the windswept and wet Pebble Beach. Vijay has new clubs and it shows. He's striking the ball well, but the consistency that comes with confidence is not there. His final round 76 last week propelled him down the leaderboard. But as usual he's playing every week, despite assertions to the contrary, and consistency will arrive sooner or later. Top-15 in two of last three years at this event gives no cause for worry. Leonard was 4th last year, but he'd never broken into the top-40 before that. Remember this is an event in which good putters don't do well. If the winds blow and the rain falls tomorrow, there'll be very little he can do at Pebble Beach! Staking plan: Paul Azinger to beat Mark Calcavecchia @ -110 with Victor Chandler Paul Azinger to beat Steve Elkington @ -110 with Ladbrokes (Gibraltar) Tiger Woods to beat Tom Lehman @ -220 [yes, -220] available generally Davis Love to beat Hal Sutton @ -111 with Stan James Kevin Sutherland to beat David Sutherland @ -110 with Sportingbet Vijay Singh to beat Justin Leonard [1st round] @ -120 with GoTo, Moneyplays or Playersbet
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