Air Canada Championship

Formerly the Vancouver Open, this has been blighted by scheduling problems since its inaugural event in 1996. For its first three years it coincided with the NEC World Series of Golf and this year and last it has been played the week after the WGC-NEC Invitational; a time when most of the leading players are looking for a week off. The list of winners is hardly inspiring: Guy Boros, Mark Calcavecchia, Brandel Chamblee, but at least home favourite Mike Weir made the event a memorable one last year. He closed with weekend 64s to come from nowhere and be proclaimed the 'Canadian Tiger'. He should certainly go close again this year, but at a much lower price.

The course has undergone some significant changes since last year. One hundred yards have been added in length to bring it up to a par-72, though it is still very short by Tour standards. To compensate, the rough has been more than doubled in acreage and the formerly large, undulating Bentgrass greens have been reduced to be well below the Tour average. If that were not enough, the fairways have also been narrowed significantly. Last year it was putting ability that separated the contenders from the also-rans [see course compatibility table], now more emphasis will be on accuracy, especially with the irons.

The emphasis away from putting will be good news for Mark Calcavecchia who is 14th in the Tour greens in regulation stats, but 83rd in putting average [still his highest position in that stat for many a year!] and as a former champion who also finished 21st last year, he has the course form and the game to make it a repeat performance. He has also has an excellent record in the Canadian Open and tops the rankings. The best-price odds of 33/1 at DAS look good e/w value. Second-ranked is Greg Chalmers. He was 21st last year, is 23rd in the greens in regulation stats and his last three finishes read 11th, 16th and 4th. In a weak field, he certainly has the quality to push for at least a place finish. Again DAS is the place for the best odds and 40/1 makes the e/w play very worthwhile.

The outsider this week is Scott Dunlap who is available at 50/1, yet again with DAS. He was an impressive 9th in his last outing, the PGA, and is another ranked highly in the greens in regulation stats, currently 20th. He has not been too close on the course of late, but his overall record in Canada is respectable and could push hard in this weak field.

Will have matchup plays later.

72-hole plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Stephen Ames -118 @ Grand Central Sports [2 units]
Top-ranked player against a Canadian resident who has a poor record on his adopted home soil - he has missed the cut in both times he has played here

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Scott Hoch +110 @ Bowmans [3 units]
Hoch will yet again make the cut, but cannot get into contention in a tournament. He was a characteristic 27th last year in a weak field, while Calc has the much better temperament to finish high on the leaderboard

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Jerry Kelly -120 @ WSEX [2 units]
Kelly has had a decent run of late, but shares Hoch's temperament when in contention and has only played on this course once: he missed the cut the year Calc won the event

Skip Kendall to beat Joe Durant -111 @ Easybets [2 units]
Early season Kendall's all-round stat was ranked in the 100s, now he's climbed to 33rd on the back of some excellent putting and a decent accuracy game. Durant may be as accurate as they come, but is a woeful putter and his form is on the slide at the moment

Skip Kendall to beat Jonathan Kaye -118 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Another opponent for Kendall whose stats/form is moving in the opposite direction, plus he has a poor record on this course

1st-round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Stephen Ames -115 @ Five Dimes

Jesper Parnevik to beat Sergio Garcia -105 @ Five Dimes

Greg Kraft to beat Retief Goosen -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jerry Kelly to beat Joe Ogilvie -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Adding:

72-hole plays:

Brian Henninger to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Five Dimes
Backing a very inconsistent player who was 4th at the Reno-Tahoe last week to give him his second top-10 in five tournaments; apart from 3rd at the John Deere Classic, Howell has finished in the top-30 of a PGA Tour event

1st round plays:

Fred Funk to beat Stephen Ames -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Brian Henninger to beat Charles Howell -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

1st round update: 5-1-0 and +7.80 units

When your player can shoot 76 and still win the 18-hole matchup, you know these days don't come around very often, so just sit back and enjoy Henninger was described as erratic and he was, yet his 76 was enough to beat Howell by three shots. Elsewhere, Calc beat Ames by seven, Parnevik beat Garcia by two, Kraft lost to Goosen by three, Kelly beat Ogilvie by two and Funk beat Ames by three.

Honors even on the 72-hole plays, though Calc and Kendall did go out in the worst of the scoring conditions; it should be remedied by a morning slot tomorrow. But Kendall needs it, he shot 76 to trail Durant by five and Kaye by seven. Calc leads in two of his matchups: against Hoch by one and against Ames by seven, though he trails Kelly by one. The other matchup looks to finishing early with Henninger holding a three shot lead over Howell.

Back with 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Scott Hoch -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Greg Chalmers to beat Scott McCarron -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Tim Herron to beat Michael Clark -110 @ Five Dimes

Sergio Garcia to beat Jesper Parnevik -115 @ Five Dimes

Skip Kendall to beat Jerry Kelly +100 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Mike Weir to beat J.L. Lewis -125 @ GoTo Casino [3 units]  [same odds @ Playersbet & On-Line Casino]

2nd round update: 1-5-0 and -12.95 units

I suppose I expected this after a lucky day on Thursday   And only Calc's one-shot loss to Hoch was close. Chalmers lost by three, Garcia by two, Kendall by five and Weir by three. The only winner was Herron, by one shot over Clark who bogeyed his last hole. Three 72-hole plays were concluded at the cut. Kendall missed it by eight shots, losing to Durant by thirteen and to Kaye by nine in the process. The other play did win though, Henninger shot 66 to make the cut and beat Howell by two.

3rd round plays:

Jesper Parnevik to beat Tommy Armour +100 @ Island Casino [2 units]

Larry Rinker to beat Bob Burns -111 @ DAS [2 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Tommy Tolles -140 @ the Starnet books -140 [3 units]

3rd round update: 1-2-0 and -1.22 units

And it was such a good start to this week ...  Calc defeats Tolles by three, but Parnevik loses by two to Armour and Rinker loses by six to Burns. Calc's 65 does improve the remaining 72-hole plays: he now leads Hoch by five and is tied with Kelly; he also defeated Ames by seven shots yesterday when Ames missed the cut and I missed it as well.

Back in the morning with 4th round plays.

Early 4th round plays:

Jimmy Green to beat Bob Burns -111 @ DAS

J.L. Lewis to beat Grant Waite -110 @ Five Dimes

Esteban Toledo to beat Adam Scott +100 @ DAS [2 units]

Can't get into any of the UGS books at the moment, apart from Five Dimes. Should have more plays later.

Can only get into Moneyplays, so adding:

Jimmy Green to beat Bob Burns -111 @ DAS  [another unit]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Tim Herron -105 @ the Starnet books

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Rory Sabbatini -150 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

J.L. Lewis to beat Grant Waite -110 @ Five Dimes [another unit]

Chris Riley to beat Rory Sabbatini -115 @ DAS

Esteban Toledo to beat Adam Scott +100 @ DAS [another unit]

Final update: 2-4-0 and -4.57 units for the day; 13-14-0 and -7.22 units for the week

Not a good day to oppose Rory Sabbatini!! He wins the tournament and defeats Calc by two and Riley by three. Of the other plays, Green lost to Burns by two and Lewis lost to Waite by three, while Toledo beat Scott by four and Calc beat Herron by eight. Calc won the two remaining 72-hole plays, by six shots over Hoch and four shots over Kelly, but this was a week that should have ended on Thursday!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +2.13 units

Calc looked as if he could take the title at the end, but fell two short of a very impressive Sabbatini. Dunlap and Chalmers were out of the money, but performed fairly creditably. Dunlap was four shots out of a place finish in 22nd place, while Chalmers was two shots further back in 31st place. Still to hit an outright winner on the PGA Tour