Update: 1-1-1 and -0.20 units for the day; 7-5-3 and +1.80 units for the week

A better week, but still frustrating! Was 3-0 for most of day until last five holes of Magee-Geiberger-Sluman rounds :-(  Was 5-0 or 4-1 for 72 hole matchups for virtually the entire week until the final day. But at least it's a sign that the unpredictability of early season sports may be coming to an end. Looking forward to a storming February!

Magee was never in the tournament as we feared, though surprisingly neither Geiberger nor Sluman made the charges so common from similar positions last year. It left them vulnerable and when Magee birdied three of the last five holes, it was disastrous for us! Sutton produced the 4th lowest round of the day to beat Mickelson by two.

For the tournament, that Sutton charge was enough to pip Huston by one. A 7th place finish by Huston was worthy of the double picks on him; unfortunate with Sutton, but four shots clear of Mickelson. Much more surprising was Couples' poor form this week; he would finish four back of Lefty. If he couldn't perform well this week after such a promising off-season, it looks like it could be another profitable season opposing him! Of the others, Allenby's 12th place finish was enough to beat Chalmers by three and Goydos has won already when Jones missed the cut by 17 shots.

A frustrating, but better week. Feels like we're on an upward curve and ready for a storming Phoenix Open :-)

Update:

Lost most of Friday's gains with a 0-2-1 day :-(  Calc never got started and lost by two to Mickelson on a course he should have easily have beaten 68. Freddie looks to be back to his old ways of losing interest; an over-par round is very rare this week, though it would have been bard pressed to beat Perry's 65. Finally Toms. He birdies the first two holes, then nothing. One par, one bogey. Two-under par was only good enough to tie with Love.

On the 72-hole front, Huston is tied with Sutton but two ahead of Mickelson, who in turn is five ahead of our pick Couples. Allenby leads Chalmers by one and Goydos has won his matchup with Jones missing the cut. It was looking much better earlier in the week!

Three picks for the last round, including another double, this time against Andrew Magee. This is Magee's first tournament of the year and to be in 11th position with one round to play is impressive for a player whose year last year consisted of a runners-up spot in the WGC World Matchplay and nothing more, just one top-10 finish. Leaderboard rusty, maybe, but he is not a good closer of events. Apart from the Byron Nelson last year he always dropped alarmingly out of a top-10 or top-25 spot. His fifth round average at the Hope is 70.20 which certainly isn't impressive. So we'll pit him against Brent Geiberger and Jeff Sluman.

Geiberger shot 61 on Thursday and we profitably predicted a come-down the following day. His return to form with a 67 yesterday is an indication that he is away from the pressure of that round. Five shots out of the lead, it will take another 61 to have a chance of victory. But he IS a good closer of events. Last year he average final round scores when in the top-25 at the start of the day was 1.08 shots lower than the average scores on those days; Magee's final round scoring averages were 0.98 shots higher than the average on those days. The same story for Sluman. His final round scoring average was 1.11 shots lower than the average scores for those days. Stats such as these always hide as much as they reveal, but they do show that in the current scenario, only Magee is expected to have a bad day.

The final one is Hal Sutton to beat Davis Love. Maybe a little insurance here if Huston gets overtaken by Sutton, but this is a very strange matchup. Sutton is in 15th place and five shots behind the lead, an outside chance of victory; Love is 37th and nine shots behind the lead, only an outside chance of a top-10 finish. Love is rarely in this position, but when he is, he tends to quit on a tournament and pay in 'auto' mode. Sutton will not and as far as final round scoring record are concerned, they are exemplary.

Staking plan:

Brent Geiberger to beat Andrew Magee @ -115 with Moneyplays Casino

Jeff Sluman to beat Andrew Magee @ -120 with Carib

Hal Sutton to beat Davis Love @ -135 with Moneyplays Casino

After yesterday's 3-0 sweep, there's plenty more choice today despite the format still being the same. Nothing as strong as yesterday, but there are three 18-hole picks again. The first is Mark Calcavecchia to beat Phil Mickelson. Lefty was performing poorly as we predicted until a glittering 64 yesterday around La Quinta lifted him to a mid-table position. A good score around a tough course, but Calc shot 66 which ain't too bad either. For Mickelson it restored some pride, but he is out of the tournament; for Calcavecchia it kept him in it. Today they play the easiest course, Bermuda Dunes, we expect Calc to perform the strongest and make a strong bid for a 4th top-4 finish in ten appearances.

Sticking with our favorite players for the week, the next is Freddie Couples to win again, this time against Chris Perry. Couples hasn't really got out of third gear this week and is too far back to win now; but he should still perform well nevertheless. In 28th place, he will be looking for a top-10 finish. It would be different if he were in 46th place, as Perry, as motivation could be one reason today for this pick. Another is that Perry just doesn't relish this format, and particularly with the courses so easy. A best of 16th place from 11 attempts will not be bettered this week.

Again motivation is a factor in the third pick, David Toms to beat David Love. Toms has been around the lead all week and now lies comfortably in 3rd place, two shots behind the leader. He has a decent record at the Hope with two top-25 finishes in the last two years and has looked all week as if he will still be there or thereabouts on Sunday. For Love, he lies in 28th place with a respectable score, but he has chosen to miss this event  since 1994 and in the other five-round pro-am, the Las Vegas, he has played there just twice in the last four years and missed the cuts both times. Not one for this format and so not one for a charge today.

Staking plan:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Phil Mickelson @ +125 with Sportingbet or Stan James

Fred Couples to beat Chris Perry @ -110 with Stan James

David Toms to beat Davis Love @ -105 with Moneyplays Casino

Update:

Both Couples and Mediate shot 68s around Indian Wells, which are quite frankly, disappointing scores on such an easy track. Couples never really got going, he started both nines with bogeys and well, Mediate, did as we predicted and spurned an excellent chance to push for the lead. Of the other picks, again they're looking strong. Huston leads Sutton by one and Mickleson by six, Couples leads Mickelson by four, Allenby still leads Chalmers by one and Goydos stills leads Jones by fourteen.

The matchups for the 3rd round are construed in the extreme. Gogel against Strange! In their attempt to match players with similar scores playing the same courses, this is very strange set of matchups to choose from, but not without value! Indeed, of the six available I like three of them!

First up is our man, John Huston, to come up trumps again. He shot 65 today to get himself firmly into contention; an excellent score considering he was one-over-par for his round after four holes. He has been pitted against Brent Geiberger who shot 61 around Indian Wells, including six consecutive birdies to finish the round! An excellent young player, but shooting such a score is very draining. There is no way he will be anyway near that tomorrow. Rely on the experience and the track record of Huston to be there in contention on Sunday not Thursday. Can't believe Geiberger is a strong favorite in this matchup!

A justifiably strong favorite is David Duval to beat Robert Damron. Like Huston, Duval is in ideal position, just five shots out of the lead and out of the pressure. This is a very long tournament and having the mental (and physical) freshness to find an extra gear on Sunday will be important. Expect another solid 66 or 67, which should be ample to see off Robert Damron who struggled today after his opening 64. The odds may not be great, but they should be a lot worse!

Finally, in a tournament of what we called 'giggle golf', we're going for the Gogel golfer to overcome his Strange adversary. Not a matchup we're likely to see again! Gogel is a Nike Tour rookie who has shot 66 and 67 around the two hardest courses and the lines makers make him a dog against a TV commentator and 'giggle' golfer who lies five shots further back. Lovely! Gogel had two Nike Tour victories last year and really shouldn't be expected to crack until the pros get down to the serious stuff on Sunday. He may fade away before then, but he's done the hard part; he's no got the two easiest courses to complete. Strange hardly deserved a mention. Nine missed cuts from sixteen events last year, including the Hope, he is way past his best. Very strange matchup indeed!

Staking plan:

John Huston to beat Brent Geiberger @ +105 with GoTo Casino

David Duval to beat Robert Damron @ -140 with Enterbet

Matt Gogel to beat Curtis Strange @ -110 with GoTo Casino, Moneyplays Casino or Enterbet

From the matchups available at GoTo and Moneyplays, I have just one pick for the 2nd round: Fred Couples to beat Rocco Mediate. That makes three plays on Freddie so far this week  A solid opening 4-under-par opening round on the most difficult course is an ideal start; not too close to the lead to feel the pressure and happy in the knowledge that it gets easier from here on in. Another excellent and lower score is to be expected on the easiest course of the lot, Indian Wells, tomorrow. Mediate should also score well - every single player broke par on that course today, but ignoring Zinger's performance last week, it is hard to shoot even lower scores when on the leaderboard. Last year he opened with a 65 to lie sixth; he shot 74 in the 2nd round. In fact, of five top-10 1st round positions last year [he currently lies joint 10th] he improved his position only once: the Phoenix Open which he won. Never too many strokes between the players on such easy courses, so with a book that doesn't have ties losing, the play is Couples.

Staking plan:

Fred Couples to beat Rocco Mediate @ -120 with Moneyplays

Update:  :-)

Before looking at how the picks are doing, consider today's average scores on the different courses:

Indian Wells -4.28 under-par [no-one over par]
Bermuda Dunes -3.13 under-par [1 player over par]
PGA West -2.09 under-par [six people over par]
La Quinta -1.31 under-par [seven people over par]

As predicted, Indian Wells is the easiest course and La Quinta the hardest; but what a difference, three strokes, that makes a huge difference if you can find an 18-hole matchup with two players on each of these courses! It also needs to be taken into account when considering how well the selections are doing ...

Okay, things are looking real good for the first time in a couple of weeks.

Huston [La Quinta] trails Sutton [Indian Wells] by one shot, but because of the 3-shot average difference between the courses, he really leads by two!

Huston [La Quinta] trails Mickelson [Bermuda Dunes] by one, but in real terms leads by one.

Couples [La Quinta] is tieing with Mickelson [Bermuda Dunes] at 4-under-par, but in real terms leads by two.

Goydos [Indian Wells] leads Jones [La Quinta] by FOURTEEN, but in real terms only leads by eleven

Allenby [PGA] leads Chalmers [PGA] by one.

Going to be difficult to track 'real' positions this week, but if GoTo and Moneyplays Casinos continue to post daily round matchups this week, there could be some rich pickings!

Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

The first made-for-TV event of the season; and it's only three weeks old! For the first four days, the pros have to endure three partners in the form of amateurs who have paid a lot of money to be in this tournament and will be determined to enjoy their money's worth [or enjoy the media exposure], regardless of what the pro is doing there. He only has the final day to himself to concentrate his own golf. Duval shot 59 last year; he could only have done it in the final round.

The course is set up nice and easy so as not to embarrass the amateurs, so low scores are likely. Duval and his 59 come to mind as does John Huston who holds the PGA Tour record for low scoring. He thrives on easy courses, which more than adequately offsets the conversion from Bermuda to Bentgrass greens. They are not fast, again for the amateurs, so the transition is not a great deal. All in all, it is an easy course, or rather courses, and it is who can put up with the amateurs the best that will be in the best position on Sunday. A report in Golf Online has shown that of every winner of the Bob Hope in the 1990s, the least number of visits to the Bob Hope before the victory was four [Kenny Perry in 1995] and that in sis of the ten years, the number of 'learning' years was in double figures. This is 'giggle golf' and it takes some getting used to!

There are five picks for the tournament, including a double on John Huston. Huston has the lowest 3-year scoring average in this event [68.00] of the entire field after finishes of 30th in '97, 10th in '98 and 3rd in '99. In lifetime scoring at the Bob Hope his 68.77 average [59 rounds; minimum 16 rounds] is only behind Bob Estes and Skip Kendall. Back that up with a 3rd place finish last week and two 5th place finishes at the end of the last Tour season; just about everything points to a great week for Huston.

We're going to pit him against Phil Mickelson and Hal Sutton. No two-bit players normally, but weak this week. For Mickelson, it's a story of two attempts, two missed cuts; he's not been back since 1994. For Sutton, it's a story of not making the top-10 in the last twelve attempts, including two missed cuts in the last four attempts. Both have been disappointing so far this year. Mickelson was 11th of 12 in his home town for the Williams World Challenge and Sutton was just 21st of 30 in the Mercedes Championships. Can't see either of them reversing their trends let alone overcoming John Huston this week.

To this end we're also doubling up against Mickelson with a play on Freddie Couples. His last Tour event, a 10th place finish at the Las Vegas, may seem a long time ago, but he had a busy and a profitable post-season. He won three times! The Skins Game, the Shark Shootout (with Duval) and the Diners Club (with Calcavecchia). Add that to an impressive history in these events - his last seven finishes in this event and the Las Vegas have been 7th, 9th, 1st, 8th, 9th, m/c, 10th. That missed cut stands out a little, but top-10 in six of last seven 'giggle golf' events is a real good omen; especially when pitted against a player who has never made the cut at this event.

On to the lesser names, and usually better value! The next is Paul Goydos to beat Steve Jones. Finishes of 7th, 25th, 24th and 8th in the last four years at the Hope read particularly impressive for a pro journeyman like Goydos. Added to a respectable 36th last week, we look for another fine finish this week from our pick. Jones did finish four places higher than Goydos last week, but it was a tale of a decent start to the week that just faltered away. A closing 72 left him demoralisingly out of the serious money. Though he has a reasonable track record at the Hope, he seems to be well past his best. For this week, more than most, he is opposed in favor of Goydos.

Finally, the last pick is with Robert Allenby to beat Greg Chalmers. This bet is available with Centrebet - hence the all-Australian cast - which means that people with US addresses can't bet on it :-(  However, for those that can, Centrebet offer the attractive proposition of updating the odds on each matchup after every round. So if well ahead, we can close it out for a nice little risk-free profit before Sunday :-)  Ok, so why Allenby? Apart from an impressive 11th place finish last year, it is more of a play against Chalmers. Of the two, Allenby has made the better transition from the European Tour to the PGA Tour; Chalmers ended up playing almost every week to earn some money last year - nine straight weeks until the Tour Championships. Very tiring, then the Australisian Tour at the end of last year [better finishes] and then a missed cut last week. It doesn't look like good for the young left-handed Chalmers and we'll gladly oppose him.

No 1st round picks. The two strongest leans - Couples over Mickelson and Huston over Sutton - has both Couples and Huston playing at the hardest course La Quinta; Mickelson is at Bermuda Dunes and Sutton is at the easy Indian Wells.

Staking plan:

John Huston to beat Hal Sutton @ -115 with the Starnet books (Sportsfanatik, Aces Casino, etc.)

John Huston to beat Phil Mickelson @ -118 with Victor Chandler

Fred Couples to beat Phil Mickelson @ +100 with the Starnet books

Paul Goydos to beat Steve Jones @ -111 with Sportingbet

Robert Allenby to beat Greg Chalmers @ -133 with Centrebet

Full preview later when all lines are up

First, one stat that might be of interest.

The scoring average for the different courses over the past five years and the years they have been used:

Indian Wells: 69.48 [1995-99]
PGA Palmer Course: 70.18 [1998-99]
Bermuda Dunes: 70.60 [1995-99]
La Quinta: 70.45 [1995; 1997-98]

Big difference if you find an 18-hole matchup with one player playing on Indian Wells and the other on a different course!

Behind those statistics, in which cross-year differences in weather matter for the Palmer course and La Quinta is the following:

Indian Wells has been the easiest [by scoring average] of all four courses in all five years.

La Quinta had been the hardest of the four in two of its three years and 3rd hardest in the other.

In between those two, the Palmer course seems easily the 2nd easiest course and then comes Bermuda Dunes.

Combine this info with the weather forecast [fine, but chance of rain on Saturday] for 90-hole matchups and it would suggest an avoidance of players playing at La Quinta on Saturday; otherwise go for players getting off to a solid start by playing Indian Wells first.

Just some thoughts.

Back later.