Buick Challenge

The last of the three Buick-sponsored PGA Tour events boasts a better field than in recent weeks with the likes of David Duval, Davis Love and Nick Price on view this week. That said, Duval has not played since the British Open, and Love and Price have been struggling with their game in recent months. However Duval and Love have local connections this week. Love is a Georgia resident with an excellent record in this event - three top-3 finishes in the last four years - and Duval spent his student days at Georgia Tech and has been in the top-10 in his last two visits. If we add Stewart Cink to the list as a Georgia resident, his three top-10 finishes in his last four visits suggests that like last week at the Texas Open, it is the local boys who play well in the Southern states.

One reason may be Bermuda grass greens which are on offer this week and are much more common in the South, but climactic differences also come into play. As LaCantera, Callaway Gardens is rather hilly with much made of the narrow fairways which helps to explain the strong showings of Fred Funk and Jeff Maggert here. However, the course compatibility stats suggests that is very much a course for the ball-strikers, the greens in regulation specialists. With the last three winners being David Toms, Steve Elkington and Davis Love, that conclusion is reinforced.

It is David Duval who tops the ratings this week, but is unlikely to be a selection to win this event. Dependent on tee-times, odds of about 9/1 would be the benchmark for Duval this week, he will surely be too rusty to be competitive at this level. Similarly, concerns over Love's current form would make him a risky selection unless odds of 14/1 were available. Instead the player with the local connections and the best value is likely to be Franklin Langham. Previous performances can be ignored to some extent for he is a revelation this year. He has finished in the top-10 in six of his last seven tournaments and this would be his pinnacle of his late-season efforts.

Two others to look for will be Chris Perry and David Toms. 4th best in the field in greens in regulation and 15th in driving accuracy and putting average, Perry has the complete game to challenge every week. 2nd twice in his last four events and with a decent record in this event - he has never missed the cut in eleven years - he looks a good value contender. The same can be said for Toms who as defending champion is rather surprising to be quoted at 35/1 by LVSC. Another good ball-striker, he has consistently played well in the South and has shown over the past few months that he certainly capable of holding on to the trophy.

As ever, the final outright plays will not be made until the tee-times are known. Will have matchup plays tomorrow.

Early 72-hole plays:

David Duval to beat Notah Begay -133 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ GoTo Casino & On-Line Casino]
Prolonged layoffs for both, but a return to college State for Duval should provide added incentive. Has been top-10 in last two visits, but Begay's swing should struggle with the hilly lies he will face last; struggled in only time on course

Chris Perry to beat Steve Flesch -118 @ Centrebet
Flesch disappointed in Pennsylvania and in his last visit here, looking for Perry to be ultra-consistent again

Chris Perry to beat Nick Price +100 @ Intertops
Price is not as competitive as he once was and having never played this course before, Perry should have the edge here

Outright plays:

Was surprised to find Duval available at 9/1 quite widely so will adopt Duval and drop Toms, though at these odds he is only a straight win play. There may be cobwebs in his game, but he is head and shoulders the best player in the field. The second outright play is Chris Perry, available e/w @ 25/1 with Victor Chandler and Paddy Power in particular as they pay on the first five places. The third play, and the second with a Georgia connection, is Franklin Langham who is an amazing 40/1 with Victor Chandler. When Sportfanatik are quoting him @ 15/1 in the futures for this event and they are not out of line with others, there is a very clear geographic difference of opinion on Langham. That is good news for us

1st round plays:

J.P. Hayes to beat Ted Tryba -120 @ Five Dimes

Jerry Kelly to beat Charles Howell -110 @ Five Dimes

Jerry Kelly to beat Steve Pate -115 @ Five Dimes

Davis Love to beat Justin Leonard -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 2-1-1 and +0.80 units

Tryba inflicted the only loss of the first round with his surprising 67 and three-shot defeat of Hayes; of the others, Kelly beat Howell by four and tied with Pate, while Love defeated Leonard by three. All three 72-hole plays are ahead at this stage: Duval by four over Begay, Perry by four over Flesch and by one over Price. Looking better than it did last week.

2nd round plays:

Chris Perry to beat K.J. Choi -170 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Jonathan Kaye to beat Chris DiMarco +105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Nick Price to beat Steve Elkington +100 @ Sportbet

Fred Funk to beat Frank Lickliter -120 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Nick Price -125 @ Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Nick Price -110 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-3-0 and -0.35 units

Split the plays including the 3-unit plays. Perry won by five, but Kaye gave up on the back nine to miss the cut and lose to DiMarco by three   For the other plays, Price shot one of the rounds of the day to beat Elkington by five, but it meant that Perry lost to him by two and Toms by eight. Funk defeated Lickliter by two in the other play. All three 72-hole plays remain alive after 36 holes with Duval leading Begay by five, Perry leading Flesch by two and trailing Price by one.

Back in the morning with 3rd round plays.

3rd round plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Brian Gay -155 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ GoTo Casino & On-Line Casino]

Chris Perry to beat Ted Tryba -105 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Will have more later, waiting for better lines on the two-ball matchups.

Adding:

Stewart Cink to beat Brian Gay -150 @ Sportingbet  [same odds @ Victor Chandler]

Davis Love to beat Robert Damron -164 @ William Hill

Chris Perry to beat Charles Raulerson -150 @ William Hill [2 units]

3rd round update: 3-2-0 and +1.50 units

Grinding out the units in this tournament despite a frustrating loss when Perry and Raulerson both shot 69s. Damn Euro books!   Brian Gay also caused a problem or two today so his three-putt on the 14th and the loss of momentum thereafter was very welcome. It meant Hoch could steal a one-shot victory, though Cink still fell two short. The other two plays were more straightforward: Perry defeated Tryba by four and Love defeated Damron by three.

Of the 72-hole plays, Duval is nine ahead of Begay and looks safe, while Perry leads Flesch by one and trails Price by five. A decent chance of some return on the outright plays. Duval is a win-only play and stands just three shots behind Maggert, while Perry is too far behind to win the tournament but is only two shots out of a place finish. Langham has not figured all week.

4th round plays:

Craig Barlow to beat Bobby Cochran -120 @ Easybets

Steve Flesch to beat Michael Bradley -137 @ Easybets

Chris Perry to beat Brian Gay -130 @ Moneyplays [3 units]  [same odds @ most other UGS books]

Chris Perry to beat Charles Raulerson -149 @ Centrebet [2 units]

72-hole continuation plays:

Fred Funk to beat Robert Damron +115 @ Olympic [2 units] [one shot behind]

Franklin Langham to beat Skip Kendall -120 @ Olympic

Franklin Langham to beat Frank Lickliter +125 @ Olympic [one shot behind]

Final update: 2-4-1 and -2.45 units for the day; 12-11-2 and +1.55 units for the week

Poor way to conclude this week's matchups. Barlow shoots 69 and for the second day in a row it's good enough for tie which loses at a Euro book; Flesch edged out Bradley by one as did Perry over Raulerson. Looked like doing the same thing in the day's top play, but a birdie on the last meant Gay tied Perry's score for just a push. All three Olympic plays lost: Funk by two to Damron, while Langham shot 76 to lose to Kendall by five and Lickliter by three.

The 72-hole plays finished 2-1-0 with Duval a sixteen-shot winner over Begay and Perry beating Flesch by two and losing to Price by eight. Still a profit on the week though

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +7.00 units

Not an outright winner on the PGA Tour all year then hit two in a row   Duval did what he had to and Maggert crumbled. Bit of a surprise to see Price do so as well once he'd gained the lead. Still a nice 9/1 winner. Perry failed to make any headway on the final day and finished in 18th place, four shots out of a place finish so it well within his reach. Had given up hope on a place finish from Langham even before his 76. Looks like we might finally see a + sign next to PGA Tour outright plays soon.