Update: 4-3-1 and +0.55 units for the day; 12-6-3 and +5.20 units for the week

Well, no blowout and no jackpot! Triplett goes 2-0-1, but offset by Sluman who goes 0-2. At the end of the day, it's another profitable one

Triplett's 70 was enough to beat Flesch by three and Micheel by nine. But Couples thankfully missed his eagle putt on the last hole and a push was secured. Sluman never got going today and starting sliding on the back nine to a poor 75. He lost to Flesch by two and Couples by five. Of the others, Toms beat Cink by two and Kevin Sutherland beat the impressive Stephen Sear by one. Stricker neither charged nor collapsed, but neither did Paulson who finished a two-shot winner.

On the 72-hole front, all three matchups were won   Geiberger beat Magee by eight shots, while Sluman and Toms edged home by a solitary shot. Who cares! Well, I did. It was hard enough keeping track on today's eight matchups, I could have done without worrying about nail-biting finishes for two more!

All in all, another good week now that the early season volatility of January has gone. Looking forward to the Nissan next week

Gulp! Never before have I liked so many of the 18-hole matchup card on a Sunday. And on a Sunday it's a fairly big card. Take these as you please, but I like EIGHT of them! Doubling-up and even tripling-up accounts for most of them, but this is scary. Boom or bust on just one day. The problem is, I've already deleted some I only liked a bit, these are solid plays

Okay, be as brief as possible. The main players are Kirk Triplett and Jeff Sluman. Triplett did find the going too tough yesterday and was easily defeated by Mickelson, by not by himself. Sure he scored 73, but that was to be expected after a 64 on Friday. He could have shot a whole lot worse given the conditions in which he was playing. He is in 4th place and while he still six shots back he is now out of the pressure pot and can concentrate on a real high finish. He is a good 4th round player as well; since the start of the 1999 season he has started Sunday 13 times in 30th place or better, on 10 occasions he has shot lower than the average score for the day. In his best pre-final round position - 5th at the Tucson Open - he closed with a 69 to finish 3rd. No reasons to expect he won't break 70 again.

Triplett is pitted against Fred Couples, Steve Flesch and Shaun Micheel and in only the last is he the favorite. For Fred, it is a classic 'yo-yo' week - means bad day, Sunday - and the last time he was anywhere near as high as 4th coming into Sunday was the NEC in August, he finished 15th. Flesch's final round record in similar situations is equally poor. Apart from last year's Compaq Classic in which he surrendered the lead to finish 2nd, on solitary the other 3 occasions he has started Sunday in the top-20, he has finished 10th (from 3rd), 44th and 47th. Not impressive. Then there's Micheel. After Matt Gogel's performances in the pro-ams this year, maybe we shouldn't overplay experience, but c'mon this is the first time he's made it to Sunday since a couple of events in 1998. No surprise he went backwards and expect more of the same as the pressure mounts today to make 'real' money!

Jeff Sluman. A great pick all week. Has gotten better rather than scorching round, fall back, etc. And every reason he'll at least maintain 4th place. Since the start of last year, he started Sunday in the top-10 six times, on only one occasion has he ended Sunday lower down. Again, no reason to expect a change to take place today. He's pitted against Fred Couples and Steve Flesch. Need I say any more?

The final three matchups are David Toms to beat Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker to beat Dennis Paulson and Kevin Sutherland to beat Stephen Sear. Toms and Cink are in 16th place with no chance of victory, what is their motivation for a strong push today? For Toms it appears to have been much stronger so far. On two occasion - the Kemper and Doral-Ryder Opens - he even managed to break into the top-5 from a similar situation, but on almost every occasion he has at least maintained such positions and improved a few places in the main. For Cink, the exact opposite is true. Decent Sundays at last year's Phoenix Open and Buick Challenge are very much against a strong trend of rapid slides down the leaderboard on Sundays. Motivation.

The same holds true for Stricker and Paulson who lie in 16th and 25th position respectively. Paulson's Sunday collapses, apart from when in the top-13 beforehand, are about the worst on Tour. Appalling for anyone who backed him for the event. Stricker is the opposite. He never moves on a Sunday. Just take a look at his stats. It's incredible, he just stays right where he began the day. Every time! Should be enough to see off Paulson though!

Finally, and at long last, Kevin Sutherland lies in 10th place and it is a position with which he is well-acquainted and has coped with well in the past. Last year's Nissan Open being his only collapse from such a situation. And he's pitted against someone yet to play on a Sunday! The odds could have been much worse for such a matchup.

Sure hope Triplett and Sluman don't have a bad day!!!

Staking plan:

Kirk Triplett to beat Fred Couples @ +110 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Flesch @ +100 with WSEX

Kirk Triplett to beat Shaun Micheel @ -125 with Carib

Jeff Sluman to beat Fred Couples @ +120 with WSEX

Jeff Sluman to beat Steve Flesch @ -125 with GoTo or Moneyplays

David Toms to beat Stewart Cink @ -105 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Steve Stricker to beat Dennis Paulson @ -120 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Kevin Sutherland to beat Stephen Sear @ -125 with Carib or Bowmans

Update: 3-2 and +0.8 units but not without its drama!

All the favorites won and all the dogs - minor as they were - lost. Stadler won by two, Love won by four and Mickelson won by six. Yet when Curry eagled the 13th he drew ahead of Stadler for the first time all day, Yikes! But Stadler closed in style and the win was secured. Within a minute of Curry eagling the 13th, Love double-bogeyed the 12th to fall back to being level with Hughes. From being 4-1, I was instantly in a loss-making 2-1-2 situation   But 18 holes is a long time and class shows through in the end, like Stadler and Mickelson to follow, Love finished in style and ended an easy winner. Mickelson was very much an easy winner though the size of victory was not so wide until he finished with four birdies over the last six holes.

Of the two losses, one was just bad, the other was hard to take! Begay was never on his game today and ended a very poor six shots behind Flesch. Not the same for Waldorf, he was always ahead of Tway, even while they both faltered on the back nine. Waldorf opened the back nine with three straight bogeys - back to just a one-shot lead over Tway ... until the last when he bogeyed the 3rd easiest hole on the course. Thought he'd birdie the par-5 for a two-shot win, but okay, at least a push ... until his score was then adjusted after the round - he had had four consecutive at the start of the back nine, not three

At least things improved considerably on the 72-hole plays. Geiberger shot 70 to overtake Magee and open up a three-shot lead. Sluman shot 66, the best round of the day, to overtake Kendall and open up a four-shot lead. Toms shot 70 to stay one-shot ahead of the resilient Roberts.

Still looking like a good week overall. Back in the morning with the 4th round plays.

Going to make Saturday even more nail-biting. I've five plays that I like in the 3rd round matchups. Some of them are decent-sized favorites, but in my view justifiably so. They have a much greater than 50% chance of winning, else I wouldn't be playing them. The first one isn't too bad though: Notah Begay to beat Steve Flesch @ -110. Begay was a winner for us yesterday and we predict he'll do the same again. A class act in his rookie year last year and he continued in the same frame this year. They're both in 8th place and now it gets serious. Begay was in this position at the start of the 3rd round many times last year and only failed once [the TPC]. For Flesch being in this position at this stage of a tournament is much more rare and when he has been here he hasn't performed under the pressure. At the MCI Classic he fell from 6th place at the start of round 3 to 31st after it. May not be so dramatic today, but one is a proven winner, there is just a good player on his day.

The next is more of a favorite with the books, Stadler to beat Paul Curry. Paul Curry!!! He has just qualified for the Tour after finishing 30th at the Tour qualifying school; he spent years on the European Tour as a journeyman pro, winning just once. I thought he'd retired! Now he's up against someone with an awesome record on this course, and not just of years long ago, and has a similarly impressive record of maintaining decent positions over the weekend. He problem has been obtaining the decent position before it! What a matchup! Great value whatever the odds!

More of the same thing can be said for the 3rd play: Davis Love over Bradley Hughes. Love's late collapse cost us a win yesterday, but he should pay us back for that today. Still only three shots out of the lead, we look for the classic 'yo-yo' effect to take place: rounds in the 60s follow rounds in the 70s or vice-versa. 65 on the 1st day, 71 on the 2nd day, well, a decent score is to be expected on the 3rd. Already explained why he should do well this week and has a huge wealth of experience of playing the weekend on the leaderboard. Since the start of last season, Bradley Hughes has started the weekend in the top-10 just once: the BC Open where he has 4th after the 2nd round. He followed that with scores of 75 and 75 to finish 44th. Odds may be a little short, just surely they could have been much shorter.

Same story for the next one as well. It's from the lead group - three-balls this week - and comprises of Phil Mickelson and Kirk Triplett. Mickelson followed his opening 66 with a 67; Triplett came storming into the lead with a second round 64. Where's that yo-yo? It really is difficult to follow such storming round with another. One notable exception was Mike Weir at the Canadian Open but that was over the weekend, not quite so soon in the tournament. Needless to say, he's never led a tournament at this stage and it won't be made an easier playing in the lead group with Phil Mickelson for company, with Davis Love in the group in front and mass hysteria potentially taking place several holes ahead where Tiger Woods may be. Daunting it is. Too much for Triplett and again though the odds may not be high, the chances of winning with Lefty certainly are.

Okay, last up is not such a heavy favorite. Duffy Waldorf is only -110 to beat Bob Tway. Two steady 69s leaves Waldorf in 14th place along with Tway and certainly in contention. Quite simply, Tway is not a Saturday man. He often plays well on Sundays, but hardly ever on a Saturday. Since the start of last season he has NEVER improved his position on a Saturday when starting the day within the top-40! That's quite a record! For Duffy quite the opposite is true if he starts a Saturday in the top-20. There is one exception - the Bell South Classic - but there's an extremely strong trend here and coupled with quite contrastingly fortunes in this event, it looks a decent play in itself.

Staking plan:

Notah Begay to beat Steve Flesch @ -110 with GoTo Casino

Craig Stadler to beat Paul Curry @ -140 with Moneyplays

Davis Love to beat Bradley Hughes @ -145 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Phil Mickelson to beat Kirk Triplett @ -140 with Moneyplays

Duffy Waldorf to beat Bob Tway @ -110 with the starnet books (e.g. Sportfanatik)

Update: going to be a nail-biting weekend!

Disappointingly split the plays on the round 2 matchups 1-1-2. Begay shot an excellent 67 to win by two shots, Geiberger's level-par round sent him tumbling down the field and was four worse than Flesch's score, while Sluman couldn't capitalize on an excellent first nine and limped home with an over-par second nine. It was enough only for a push with Kaye. And there was Davis Love   "Laid-back", "can handle leading from the front" is what I wrote. After 13 holes he was four-under for the day and coasting well clear of Couples. Then he just went bogey, double-bogey and couldn't even get a shot back at the easy par-5 closing hole. Another push

On the 72-hole matchup front, things didn't improve today either! Geiberger's 72 enabled Magee to overtake him by one shot; Kendall had a storming 66 and that left him three ahead of Jeff Sluman; though at least Toms managed to hold onto his slender one-shot lead over Roberts.

Back with the plays for the 3rd round in the morning. Starting to need something positive to happen!

The starnet books are a welcome addition to the list of sportsbooks that offer 18-hole matchups and while their lines have been rather sporadic this year, today they have posted a choice of six round 2 matchups   Again no concern has been granted to which course the players are playing on. From their list I am adding two more round 2 plays.

The first is Brent Geiberger to beat Steve Flesch, both playing on the South course today. The reasons for thinking Geiberger will do well this week have already been laid out and an opening 69 is a good testimony to those thoughts. Flesch's form has been surprisingly good so far this year; he certainly didn't look like achieving a top-10 finish during the second half of last year. But, quite simply, there is a difference in class between these two players. When they're made equal favorites in a matchup, and especially on the West Coast, I'll always plump for Geiberger.

The second is much more clear-cut: Sluman to beat Kaye. As with Geiberger, the reasons why I like the favored player have already been laid out. A score on 70 on the harder course is a decent enough start; Kaye's 70 was conducted on the easier North course and today they switch around. Kaye has missed the cut in two of his three appearances in this event; his finishes this season read: m/c, 51st, m/c, 35th. Do I see a trend for a m/c this week? Currently in 22nd place, he will probably avoid that but I just can't see him making the move today on the harder course that I expect Slu to do on the easier one. Such is my confidence in Sluman today, I've replaced Tiger with him in my Yahoo fantasy golf team. That's confidence! We'll see what hindsight has to say about that! LOL!

Staking plan:

Brent Geiberger to beat Steve Flesch @ -115

Jeff Sluman to beat Jonathan Kaye @ -130

Both lines with the starnet books, e.g. Sportfanatik.

Update: sitting pretty

Geiberger beats Lickliter by six shots to win 1st round matchup. The three 72-hole picks are ahead, not by much, but they're ahead: Geiberger, Sluman and Toms all lead by one.

For the 2nd round, the matchups available at GoTo and Moneyplays don't seem to take any account of the course played by either player. Yet the North course has historically averaged 2.5 shots easier than the South course. However last year that differential was almost halved and today it was a mere 0.15 shots   Can't explain it, though the differential is noticeably larger for the first quartile, but I still say go with a North course player tomorrow.

With that in mind I have two plays for the 2nd round, though neither has particularly attractive odds. They just look a whole lot better than the projected 56% probability of winning

Davis Love to beat Fred Couples. Okay, so you shouldn't play someone who is currently in the lead, but there are not many more laid-back people that Davis Love - apart from Fred Couples LOL! - who can handle leading from the front. He's played this event for the past 5 years; in that time he's finished 12th, 1st, 59th, 3rd, m/c, which summarizes Love to a tee. If he's in it, count your money! Again, rather a lot like Freddie! Just can't see Couples staying in this one; no consistent form outside of off-season events and a very reluctant visitor to this event [just two starts in last seven years]. Oh, and Love is playing on the easier course tomorrow, which kind of puts his 65 into an even better light!

The second play is on Notah Begay to beat Chip Beck. Both will be playing on the same course tomorrow, but I can only see them going in different directions. Begay was a two-time winner as a rookie last year and that doesn't happen too often! Let's just say Beck is in the twilight years of his career. With two missed cuts and a 53rd place finish so far this year, there is little current evidence that he should build on his present 26th position. The course evidence is not supportive either: since he won this event in 1992 he has played every year and made it to the weekend just once [1995]. There should be only one winner here.

Staking plan:

Davis Love to beat Fred Couples @ -125 with GoTo
Notah Begay to beat Chip Beck @ -130 with GoTo

  Can't place the Woods parlay. Apparently the software won't allow it be done on the internet or via the telephone. Looked a great scalping opportunity with WSEX having the other trio at +140. Thought is was too god to be true!

The Buick Invitational. Number seven?

Staking plan:

Brent Geiberger to beat Andrew Magee @ -110 with Victor Chandler

Jeff Sluman to beat Skip Kendall @ -110 with Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Loren Roberts @ -120 available generally

Brent Geiberger to beat Frank Lickliter [1st round] @ -130 with GoTo or Moneyplays

plus,

3-play parley at Gamblers Palace: Tiger Woods to beat Fred Couples @ -185; Tiger Woods to beat Davis Love @ -185; Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson @ -185. Parley odds of +266.