Buick Open

It may be the week before the final Major of the year, but there's a decent field in this week's event including one Tiger Woods who is paid to endorse the sponsor's products. He will ensure crowds upwards of 180,000, but this is an event that typically produces a surprise winner the week before the PGA. The timing of the event may have something to do with that, but last year Pernice was 150/1 and the year before Billy Mayfair was 125/1 with Tiger in the field. One surprising stat is that only twice in the last ten occasions has the 3rd round leader won this event.

The course itself is setup rather easy for the players. The fairways are very generous, with the recent 30-acre extension of the rough not going to make a great deal of different, and this has all-too-often been an exercise in target golf. The Bentgrass greens are some of the largest on Tour and with the recent wet weather will only add to the 'target' element this week. It may well suit Tiger very well if he is contention from day one, but it does lend itself to surprise winners.

Tiger is obviously one to pass over the week before a Major, so the value should lie instead with Jim Furyk, Steve Flesch and Loren Roberts at this stage. In a week for 'horses for courses', Jim Furyk's record of three top-15 finishes from four starts stands out [putting to one side the declining Bob Tway] with a cumulative score of 40-under-par for those rounds. He also holds the course record of 62 in 1995. The 'horses for courses' rule may not be very applicable to Steve Flesch and Loren Roberts - Flesch was 54th last year on his only visit and before last year, Roberts had a record of 8 visits, 6 missed cuts and two 75th places - but both are in the middle of a great run of form. Flesch's missed cut last week can be ignored, Warwick Hills and the format take some acquiring, while Roberts did post a 9th place finish last year and has not been out of the top-10 in his last four events, a run that includes a win in the Greater Milwaukee Open and two Majors. If it's a putting contest, all three should excel.

As usual, final outright plays will be deferred until the tee-times and weather conditions are known. Will post matchup plays tonight.

The weekly withdrawals update

Strange one this week, let's start with additions, or rather, players that were left off the official PGA Tour list on Friday

Fred Couples
Larry Mize

And now the withdrawals:

Mark Brooks
Paul Curry
Brent Geiberger
Ken Green
Kazuhiko Hosokawa
Charles Howell
Mark O'Meara
John Restino

Will update as I hear more

Adding:

Jay Haas

Outright plays:

With Tiger in the field, I'll stick with my next three ranked as they all attract good prices. First up is Jim Furyk, available at 25/1 with Victor Chandler with the e/w payable on the 1st first places and they also have the best prices on Steve Flesch and Loren Roberts as well: 40/1 and 33/1 respectively   BTW, an Irish online sportsbook that I have just added to my list, Paddy Power, also have the same odds for Flesch and Roberts and pay e/w bets on the first 5 places as well.

72-hole plays:

Bill Glasson to beat Paul Azinger -105 @ the UGS books
Will continue to rise the Glasson train, he really is on top of his game. Zinger a much better putter on Bermuda greens and if it does become a putting contest, he won't figure this week

Greg Chalmers to beat Matthew Goggin -111 @ Easybets
Won't get too many chances to oppose about the worst putter in the field in a putting contest; Chalmers may not finish too highly but his game is much better suited to this course

Glen Day to beat Jeff Maggert -115 @ Olympic
Last time I opposed Maggert he bucked very long sequence of missing cuts; back on the way down again so will again oppose a decent putter against a poor one

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Easybets
Jimenez has played well on his trips across the pond, maybe the wide open fairways should play in Olazabal's hands, but he did miss the cut last year

Chris Perry to beat Shigeki Maruyama -111 @ Ladbrokes
Top-25 in his last three visits against a first-timer to this course; a player with good stats against a player without. Perry is not as hot as last year, but he should be top-25 again

Loren Roberts to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -143 @ Centrebet
I love this one, if only the line wasn't so high!

Adding:

J.P. Hayes to beat Matthew Goggin -115 @ Five Dimes
Line on Chalmers-Perry may now be -167, but can oppose Goggin with another decent putter

Kenny Perry to beat Dennis Paulson -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Perry should be top-25 which should be plenty against a player with poor all-round stats and a no-show here since 1995

1st round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Russ Cochran -115 @ Five Dimes

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Paul Azinger -110 @ Five Dimes

John Cook to beat Glen Day -115 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Fred Couples -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris DiMarco to beat Lee Janzen -105 @ Moneyplays  [same odds @ GoTo Casino, Playersbet & Enterbet]

Steve Elkington to beat Brad Faxon -115 @ Five Dimes

Tim Herron to beat Scott Verplank -115 @ Five Dimes

Bob Tway to beat Glen Hnatiuk -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Skip Kendall to beat Rocco Mediate +100 @ Moneyplays  [same odds @ GoTo Casino, Playersbet & Enterbet]

Davis Love to beat Vijay Singh -110 @ Five Dimes

Davis Love to beat Hal Sutton -120 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ GoTo Casino, Playersbet & Enterbet]

Phil Mickelson to beat Vijay Singh -120 @ the UGS books

Tom Scherrer to beat Craig Parry -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Kenny Perry to beat Dennis Paulson -115 @ Five Dimes

2nd round plays:

Russ Cochran to beat Stephen Ames -115 @ Five Dimes

Glen Day to beat John Cook -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Paul Goydos to beat Joel Edwards -120 @ Five Dimes

Steve Flesch to beat Joe Ozaki -143 @ DAS

Jim Furyk to beat Skip Kendall -125 @ the UGS books bar Five Dimes

Jim Furyk to beat Phil Mickelson -115 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Davis Love +105 @ Five Dimes

Will have 1st round damage survey in a minute

1st round update: 2-9-3 and -11.75 units

The roll-call: Ames/Cochran all square; Maruyama/Azinger 8 down; Cook/Day 2 up; Chris Perry/Couples 4 up [doing okay so far!]; DiMarco/Janzen 2 down; Elkington/Faxon - Elk wd with sore hip; Herron/Verplank all square; Tway/Hnatiuk [the 3-unit play ] 2 down; Kendall/Mediate 1 down; Love/Singh 5 down; Love/Sutton 4 down; Mickelson/Singh 3 down; Scherrer/Parry 2 down; Kenny Perry/Paulson all square.

The 72-hole plays are currently split 3-3-1 with Glasson withdrawing before teeing off. They stand: Chalmers/Goggin 3 up; Day/Maggert 4 down; Jimenez/Olazabal 3 down; Chris Perry/Maruyama 6 up; Roberts/Olazabal 4 up; Hayes/Goggin 2 down; Kenny Perry/Dennis Paulson all square.

Looks like my first round selection methods need some fine-tuning!

2nd round update: 3-3-1 and -0.55 units

Better than yesterday I suppose! The results: Cochran/Ames 3 down; Day/Cook all square; Goydos/Edwards 4 down; Flesch/Ozaki 2 up; Furyk/Kendall 3 down; Furyk/Mickelson 1 down; Sutton/Love 5 up.

Much better performance on the 72-hole plays: six of the seven were closed out at the cut, standing at 5-1-0. They were: Chalmers/Goggin 2 up; Jimenez/Olazabal 3 up; Chris Perry/Maruyama 14 up; Roberts/Olazabal 12 up; Hayes/Goggin 4 down; Kenny Perry/Dennis Paulson 7 up. In the only remaining 72-hole play, Glen Day trails Jeff Maggert by 3 shots.

Still a lot to make up from Thursday though. Will have 3rd round plays in the morning.

3rd round plays:

Fred Couples to beat Brad Faxon -120 @ the Starnet books

Jim Furyk to beat Fred Couples +110 @ GoTo Casino [2 units] [same odds @ On-Line Casino]

Scott Verplank to beat Jeff Maggert -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

3rd round update: 0-3 and -5.60 units

I hate this week! Couples loses by two to Faxon, Furyk loses by one to Couples and Verplank loses by three to Maggert. Day trails Maggert by four in the remaining 72-hole play.

4th round plays:

Casey Martin to beat Aaron Bengoechea -130 @ Five Dimes

Phil Mickelson to beat Brad Faxon -150 @ DAS

Kenny Perry to beat Robin Freeman -143 @ DAS

Jeff Maggert to beat Dudley Hart +100 @ DAS [3 units]

Takao Nogami to beat Craig Perks -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Tournament play:

Paul Azinger to beat Dudley Hart -160 @ Olympic [3 units]

Final update: 5-1-0 and +4.20 units; 15-17-4 and -8.85 units for the week

Stupid! Stupid! Stupid! Got sucker-punched today by seeing how bad Dudley Hart's back was yesterday. Cost me the only loss and at a price that managed to half the day's winnings Really thought he would struggle today, if he even started, but just can't play to injuries, all players carry some sort of injury for which temporary relief can be found during a tournament.

The winners were Martin over Bengoechea by five; Mickelson over Faxon by one; Perry over Freeman by two; Maggert over Hart by two; and Nogami over Perks by seven. Zinger had a poor day as well to surrender his one-shot lead and lose to Hart by three. In the only remaining 72-hole play, Day lost to Maggert by six.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Close, but not close enough. Furyk had just one bogey all week, but on this course it was all about birdies and he was found wanting. He finished in 16th place as did Loren Roberts, while Steve Flesch was down in 25th place.