Byron Nelson Classic

Two courses are used this week, Las Colinas and Cottonwood Valley, and while it will only be the former that is played over the weekend, both are short and tight. As shown by the course compatibility stats, driving ability counts for little this week, the emphasis on the players' short game. Without wind, this can be reduced to a pitch and putt tournament with very low scoring. The forecast is for wind though! These conditions tend to bring the Texans to the fore.

The 72-hole plays:

Joe Durant to beat Brian Watts -125 @ Sportingbet
Watts was 3rd last year, but apart from 22nd in the BellSouth, his top finish this year is 60th! Durant not setting the course alight, but at least his form is moving in the right direction - 9th last week.

Chris Perry to beat Sergio Garcia -111 @ Sportingbet
Garcia was 3rd last year, but Perry has been top-10 twice in last three years. Tight courses should be too much for Garcia's fragile game & temperament

Nick Price to beat Sergio Garcia -130 @ the Starnet books
Price revels on tight courses, Sergio gets his shoes muddy on them.

Chris Perry to beat Steve Stricker -125 @ WSEX
When the emphasis is on greens in regulation and putting, there aren't many that can compete with Perry; Stricker's stats don't.

The 1st round plays:

Vijay Singh to beat Jim Furyk -115 @ Five Dimes
Furyk's game has gone off the boil in the past couple of months, plus he'll be playing in the wind tomorrow.

Loren Roberts to beat Lee Janzen -125 @ Five Dimes
Three top-4 finishes in last five events shows Roberts is back to his best when he makes the cut; defending champion so obviously likes the course and has the morning advantage

1st round update: 1-1 & -0.25 units for the day

Split the 1st round plays: Singh was four-shot winner over Furyk, but Roberts lost by two to Janzen despite shooting 70 and having a top-20 position. The 72-hole plays are looking none too encouraging though. Durant shot 77 to trail Watts by four, Perry shot 73 to lead Stricker by three, but a big surprise was Garcia's 68; he leads our picks Price by two and Perry by five.

2nd round plays:

Davis Love to beat Sergio Garcia -120 @ GoTo, Sportbet, Island Casino
Raising the stakes on Garcia! Love is an excellent frontrunner and playing the easier course today [1.24 shots difference yesterday]

Tiger Woods to beat Davis Love -130 @ GoTo, Sportbet, Island Casino
Nothing fights harder than a wounded animal and with Woods in 75th position, there should be fireworks in the calmer winds this afternoon

Double-birthday celebration in family yesterday so no capping. Seem to be splitting all my plays this week, so need to break out today.

Olympic plays [back soon with others]:

Bob Estes to beat Mark Brooks +100
In last 3 years, when in top-9 going into Sunday, Brooks averages 3 shots more than Estes

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Blaine McCallister -120
Same story as with the Estes-Brooks play above, despite McCallister's obvious great current form

Adding:

Glen Day to beat Jay Williamson -125 @ BlueSq
Too lofty a position for Williamson on the leaderboard and looking for Day to repeat last week's 68 from a similar position; can get -141 with Canbet if tie bet wants to be avoided

Scott Verplank to beat Scott Dunlap -111 @ Canbet
Opposed Scott Dunlap last week with Scott McCarron and were rewarded with 4 shot winner, this week another Scott! Same reasoning as before, Dunlap is a good player, but when on the fringes on contention on Sunday, he's one to oppose.

Bob Estes to beat Paul Stankowski +110 @ William Hill
Good finisher when in contention, looking to double up on Estes. For this price, worth taking the risk with the tie - Canbet and Sportodds have Estes -111.

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ Moneyplays
Very solid and a good closer of events, Maruyama looks a better play than the often-charging, but easily frustrated Spaniard

Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -160 @ WSEX
Yes, I do think there is that big a gap between them at the moment!

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Jerry Smith -120 @ William Hill
The line is -200 elsewhere and that looks right; the ties lose problem is no disincentive with this price.

Final update: 4-4 and -0.51 units for the day; 7-9-0 and -3.72 units for the week.

The slide continues   Another split day, though the only losers were Maruyama and Verplank. Bit of a problem when you have three plays on Maruyama and he is 3-over-par after five holes. He did come back to lose to Garcia and McCallister by only one, but a loss is a loss. That is unless a tie is a loss! Price and Garcia tied over 72 holes, but at Sportingbet that equals a loss

That's three weeks in the negative numbers. Looking to bounce back in style next week