Canadian Open

The late entry of Tiger Woods will attract the headlines rather the event itself which is the 4th oldest on the Tour or the course which is one of Jack Nicklaus' finest. Tiger may have been exhausted by flu last week and had intended to have a long layoff, but nothing drives him more than surpassing Nicklaus' records. Jack never won more than two national championships in a year and this year Tiger already holds the US and British versions, so where better than on a Nicklaus track.

Glen Abbey is a tough course with a four-year average of 72.52, though with three par-fives in the last six holes it should produce some dramatic finishes if anyone is in sight of a fit Tiger. The Bentgrass greens are small, so the emphasis is on accurate iron play of which Tiger tops the Tour stats, but maybe somewhat more surprising is that Tiger also tops the putting stats. It was only two years ago that he was ranked 147th on the Tour in that department - if fit this is no contest in a unspectacular field. But even at odds of +100 it is quite a risk to take on someone last seen in poor health.

Instead the value should lie more with the likes of Hal Sutton, Jesper Parnevik and Franklin Langham. All three are at their best with their short game and relish tough courses. Sutton can boast finishes of 4th and 1st in the last two years on this course, while Parnevik was 9th last year and looked good for two days last week. Langham for his part has been 7th on his last two outings including the PGA and has been 2nd three times this year already. He is a much-improved player this year. Early indications are that we should be able to get 16/1, 28/1 and 50/1 respectively for these three, though final outright selections will be made once the tee-times are known - this is an event often affected by wind.

Early 72-hole plays:

Scott Verplank to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Sportingbet
The winner of the Reno-Tahoe has had time to come to terms with such a long-overdue win; Sabbatini should suffer a reaction from his first Tour win last week

Hal Sutton to beat Mike Weir -138 @ Sportingbet
Top-tip for this event and defending champion should be a strong contender this week; Weir has a very poor record in his home championship, missing the last four cuts and did little last week to suggest that this trend would be overturned

Outright plays:

The three outright plays are confirmed as Hal Sutton, Jesper Parnevik and Franklin Langham. While Tiger can be found at 6/5 at Victor Chandler, the best value lies with these three players in e/w bets. Sutton can be found at 20/1 with Sportingbet, Parnevik at 25/1 with Ladbrokes [same odds @ DAS] and Langham at 50/1 generally, though Victor Chandler is the best place with their e/w bets paid on five places.

Adding one 72-hole play:

Greg Chalmers to beat Mark O'Meara -110 @ GoTo Casino
Chalmers was an outright selection last week and every reason to expect another good performance this week. He was 15th alongside O'Meara last year, but has vastly superior stats for this type of course and much more likely to finish in top-10

Adding another 72-hole play:

Franklin Langham to beat Michael Clark -110 @ SIA
No course form and with his best club being his driver, can't see Clark challenging this week. Have been looking for a decent matchup with Langham

Adding:

72-hole plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Mike Weir -105 @ WSEX
Top-25 in last two seasons here, Calc's fade is the ideal shot for this course. If putter holds up, his momentum from last week should see him easily beat Weir who has a very poor record here

Hal Sutton to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ WSEX  [same odds @ Olympic]
No course form and very poor greens in regulation stats suggest this could be a difficult tournament for Garcia

Hal Sutton to beat Mike Weir -138 @ Sportingbet [adding another unit]
Just can't see this one being close

1st round plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Michael Clark -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Greg Chalmers to beat Mark O'Meara -115 @ Five Dimes

Chris DiMarco to beat Mathew Goggin -105 @ DAS [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Mike Weir -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Scott Verplank to beat Steve Jones -110 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 4-0-1 and +6.98 units

Second week in a row we get off to a flyer, but what happened afterwards last week is worth forgetting! A near sweep with just DiMarco and Goggin tying with 74s, for which DAS pay out via their dead heat rule. All the others won: Azinger by three, Chalmers by two, Flesch by three and Verplank by three also.

The 72-hole plays look in good shape also, currently standing 4-2-0: Verplank/Sabbatini 2 down; Sutton/Weir 2 up; Chalmers/O'Meara 2 up; Langham/Clark 3 up; Calcavecchia/Weir 4 up; and Sutton/Garcia 5 down.

Back in the morning with 2nd round plays.

2nd round plays:

Mike Brisky to beat Doug Dunakey -105 @ DAS

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Sergio Garcia +140 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Franklin Langham to beat Greg Chalmers +100 @ Five Dimes

Glen Day to beat Mark O'Meara -110 @ Five Dimes

Jeff Sluman to beat Rory Sabbatini -111 @ DAS [2 units]

2nd round update: 1-3-1 and -3.27 units

Gave half of yesterday's profits back   The losses may have been close, but when Franklin Langham can shoot 67 and still lose, it's definitely a day to put to one side and not worry about, they don't come around that often. Langham lost by two to Chalmers, the same margin that Brisky lost to Dunakey, while Sluman lost by one to Sabbatini. Calc and Garcia tied with 69s, while Glen Day had a six-shot victory over Mark O'Meara.

Two 72-hole plays were decided at the cut and both were winners. Chalmers has a twelve shot victory over O'Meara and Langham had a ten shot victory over Clark. The remaining plays are split: Verplank is two ahead of Sabbatini, Sutton is one behind Weir, Calc is four ahead of Weir and Sutton is eight behind Garcia.

3rd round plays:

Franklin Langham to beat Michael Bradley -143 @ Centrebet

Doug Dunakey to beat Rory Sabbatini +138 @ Paddy Power

Hal Sutton to beat Scott McCarron -125 @ Five Dimes

Kevin Sutherland to beat Corey Pavin -120 @ DAS

3rd round update: 3-1-0 and +2.00 units

Back on track in day three. The only loss was with Dunakey whose 73 was bettered by six shots by Sabbatini. Elsewhere though, Langham beat Bradley by two shots, Sutton beat McCarron by five shots and Sutherland beat Pavin by four shots. The 72-hole plays improved also despite the efforts of Calc who shot 77 to fall back into a tie with Weir. In the other plays, Verplank leads Sabbatini by one, Sutton leads Weir by seven and has closed the gap on Garcia to three shots.

Back in the morning with 4th round plays.

4th round plays:

Steve Flesch to beat Barry Cheesman -130 @ Five Dimes

Kevin Sutherland to beat Barry Cheesman -120 @ DAS [2 units]

Final update: 2-0-0 and +3.00 units for the day; 14-5-3 and +12.61 units for the week

Managed to hold onto and build on my 1st day gains this week   Only two plays today and both were winners: Flesch defeated Cheesman by two shots, while Kevin Sutherland defeated him by one. Of the 72-hole plays remaining, Sutton beat Weir by thirteen shots, but lost to Garcia by four, Calc beat Weir by six shots, while Verplank and Sabbatini tied. Good job Sportingbet dropped their ties lose rule on those plays! This one definitely had the feel of a good week throughout!

Update on the outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Still more difficulties with the outrights on the PGA Tour, but at least the plays were close. Langham finished in 6th place, when the e/w bet was paid on the first five places   while Sutton recovered from just making the cut to finishing 10th. Very impressive weekend, but no money. Calc just had a horrible Saturday and finished well down in 48th place.

One point of note is that this week's plays have brought the year's profit to over 100 units