MasterCard Colonial

The ultimate shot-maker's course. Another short, but tight par-70 where the emphasis is on keeping the ball in play. There are only two par-fives and the usually narrow fairways have been narrowed further, but interestingly, the small Bentgrass greens have also been recently reduced in size. If the Texas winds blow then this very challenging course - it has hosted the US Open and the TPC in the past - could see some very large scores. When Jeff Sluman has the best recent course form - 2nd, 13th, 3rd and 2nd since 1996 - the course is obviously in the mould of a US Open course.

The top-ranked are Davis Love, David Duval and Jim Furyk, though none of them will attract a great price to win. Despite Love being a better putter on Bermuda grass he has a history of sustaining good form: in the week's following his 15 top 10 finishes over the past four years he has posted eleven top-10 finishes and one win. Duval is a frustrating player - he has the best 12-month average in greens in regulation in this field which should count a lot, but his putting is lousy. If it improves to just average, he will be a major player this week. Furyk's recent mini-slump can be attributed to a loss of driving accuracy; that seems to be under control again and if it remains so he is well-equipped to improve on his top-20 finishes in 1997 & 1998.

The 72-hole matchups plays for this event are:

Stewart Cink to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ WSEX
May have missed the cut last week, but Cink still has better current and course form than Janzen, plus his career-low 64 was shot here

Mark O'Meara to beat Steve Elkington -119 @ CRIS
He may have not played here since 1995, but three top-25 finishes in his last 4 events is a sign that O'Meara is within sight of his former self. The same cannot be said for Elkington

Jim Furyk to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ WSEX
Impressive course form vs. no course form; would be no questions if it weren't Franco, but this course should be too tight for a first-timer

Fred Funk to beat Mike Weir -110 @ WSEX
Complete collapse of form for the Canadian of late; Funk was 2nd last year and there's no-one straighter off the tee this week

Scott Hoch to beat Brent Geiberger -155 @ GoTo
Complete mismatch! Top-15 in five of last six events and ultra-consistent record here; Geiberger can't get close to that.

1st round plays:

The forecast is for the wind to blow tomorrow and harder in the afternoon, should make a difference, so two 72-hole plays in which the pick has the favorable draw tomorrow are:

Mark O'Meara to beat Steve Elkington -115 @ Moneyplays

Jim Furyk to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Moneyplays

1st round update: 1-1 and -0.15 units

Yet another day of splitting the plays   Furyk won by two on his way to a top-15 position, while O'Meara lost by two though at least he recovered from his initial five-over-par after eight holes. That does offer some comfort for this match over 72-holes. The other 72-hole plays are evenly matched: Hoch leads by three, but Funk trails by the same margin and Cink and Janzen at tied at level-par.

Just one play for the 2nd round - only 5 matchups on offer:

Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson +155 @ Island Casino
I have been reminded that much of Weir's mini-slump has been due to injury & external factors - looks to have his 'A-game' back. He's a good momentum player and if the PGA Tour stats are right, he's striking the ball better than Lefty. Too good a price to miss.

2nd round update:

A Mickelson birdie on the last hole denies us a very profitable winner; a push with both players shooting 70. Of the 72-hole plays, the 2nd round is still unfinished, but two look finished already. Franco and Hoch will both miss the cut after 2nd round 76s - so one won and one lost so far after 36 holes.

Only Bowmans and the Starnet books have early lines for the 3rd round, of these there are 2 plays:

Scott Dunlap to beat Tim Herron +105 @ Bowmans
Typically go against someone shooting the low score the day before and with Dunlap #1 in GIR this week, looks an attractive price

Skip Kendall to beat David Frost -145 @ Bowmans
A stat - average 3rd round score when <7 from lead over last four years: Kendall 70.6 (39 times); Frost 72.1 (25 times). With Frost only hitting 56% of greens in regulation, will take the chalk on this one.

3rd round update: 1-1 and -0.40 units

Yet more split plays: won with Dunlap, but not with Kendall.

4th round plays:

Scott Dunlap to beat Joel Edwards -115 @ GoTo

Tim Herron to beat David Frost +120 @ Bowmans

Phil Mickelson to beat David Frost -120 @ the Starnet books

Mark O'Meara to beat Jim Furyk +120 @ the Starnet books

David Toms to beat Jim Furyk +115 @ GoTo

Mike Weir to beat Rocco Mediate +110 @ the Starnet books

Mark O'Meara to beat Kevin Sutherland +105 @ Olympic

Stuart Appleby to beat Vijay Singh -130 @ Olympic

Final update: 3-4-1 and -0.95 units for the day; 8-8-2 and -1.15 units for the week

Disappointing finale to another damp squid week - 4 losing weeks in a row. Wins against Frost and Singh, but otherwise no joy. 72-holers finished 3-2 with wins for Cink, O'Meara & Furyk. Still, went 4-0 on website with Euro Tour and have consolidated 2nd place on BigGuy golf leaderboard, so no reason to get down. And no time either, start capping the Memorial tomorrow!