Compaq Classic

The Tour moves to New Orleans this week for the Compaq Classic, a tournament that itself moved last year: from its pre-Masters slot as the Freepost-McDermott Classic to its current May slot. As with any Jack Nicklaus designed course, there is an emphasis on length and an ability a high ball, the importance of which was increased with the later staging of the event. The greens are are small with Bermuda grass and are difficult to hold when the course is playing fast and running.

Largely because it was the pre-Masters event, it was consistently ignored by the top players. Els has played here twice before, Singh once and Mickelson never before, but that should not be too much of a disadvantage. The last two winners of this event has been first-timers and it has a long history of infrequent visitors winning here. The change of schedule should erase that in time as a more consistent field will assemble here.

The top-ranked is Hal Sutton, for whom this is as close to a hometown event as it gets. He is a regular in this event, though his record is hardly awe-inspiring. But his current game and state of mind is a long way from what it was in the early/mid nineties and current form, he looks good to improve on last year's 7th place finish. The can be no questions about the current form of the 2nd & 3rd ranked either. Vijay Singh followed up his Masters win with a 3rd place finish in the MCI Classic, the same finish as Ernie Els was 2nd the week before at Augusta. Both have had a couple of weeks' rest and look very good in a field that is a little bottom-heavy.

The matchup plays are as following:

Jack Nicklaus to beat Chip Beck -120 @ WSEX
Missed cuts galore both in recent times and on this course for Beck; Jack should make the weekend on his own course

Hal Sutton to beat Carlos Franco -120 available generally
Top ranked and justifiably so on current form against someone playing as defending champion for first time

Hal Sutton to beat Phil Mickelson -110 @ Intertops, Gamblers Palace, CRIS, Premiere League
Very up-and-down season so far for Lefty, may find it difficult as a first-timer to keep up with the ultra-consistent Sutton

Dennis Paulson to beat Steve Lowery -111 @ Sportingbet
Course record holder (62) and 4th twice from three starts; Lowery also has terrific record, but very unpredictable over 4 rounds

Bob Tway to beat Craig Stadler -120 @ SOS
Nothing spectacular from Tway, but a regular at this event so likes the course; can Stadler put that playoff behind him? Doubtful.

1st round update:

No 1st round plays and now only four 72-hole matchups left: Craig Stadler withdrew from the event.

Not looking too great on the other four though: Jack shot 70, but looks like Beck will finally make a cut after his opening 68. Sutton could only manage a level-par 72 and lies five behind Franco and 1 behind Mickelson, while Paulson surprisingly could only manage 75; at least Lowery shot the same score. Looks like that one will be decided before the weekend!

Plays for the 2nd round:

Scott Hoch to beat Chris Perry -115 @ Five Dimes
Yet another poor opening round for Hoch, but his 2nd round rescues are famous. Looking for something like last week's 65 from similar position

Scott McCarron to beat Dan Forsman +105 @ GoTo or Moneyplays
He may be 2nd overnight, but McCarron has done well when in this position - even shot 69 in this event three years ago when 3rd after round 1 - no such consistency in Forsman's game

2nd round update: 2-0 and +2.05 for the day

Hoch delivered with a 68 to jump to top-20, while Perry missed the cut and McCarron's 70 was enough to keep him in the top-10; Forsman's 75 was enough to drop him from a top-10 position to just making the cut by one shot!

Two 72-hole matchups were concluded today. Chip Beck did miss yet another cut, but Jack lost his way on the back nine to also miss the cut and finish three shots behind Beck. Paulson also missed the cut, but in this basement battle, he did defeat Lowery by four shots. Of the other two, Sutton had two late birdies to make the cut, but lies four behind Mickelson and eight behind Franco, but at least there's 36 holes to make those up!

Early plays for the 3rd round:

Stephen Ames to beat Paul Stankowski -105 @ Bowmans
Last week Stankowski was 4th after 36 holes - he shot 78 on Saturday! Ames much more comfortable on leaderboard these days

Stuart Appleby to beat Carlos Franco +110 @ Bowmans or the Starnet books
Very good price for a proven winner and front-runner. Last week Franco was 4th after 36 holes - he shot 72 to fall off the leaderboard

Glen Day to beat Blaine McCallister -120 @ Bowmans
Seven years since McCallister led a tournament after 36 holes, can't see him being in the top-10 after 54 holes!

Adding two more 3rd round plays:

Glen Day to beat Paul Stankowski -120 @ GoTo
Similar to earlier plays: solid Day versus suspect Stankowski temperament

Nick Price to beat Ernie Els +140 @ GoTo
Both Leaderboard tables in Analysis section show Price to be a mover in mid-table and Els to become disinterested.

3rd round update: 1-3-1 and -2.40 units for the day

Double egg on the face! Stankowski's temperament was fine - he seems to have learned rather than be affected by last week's 3rd round collapse when in similar position - and McCallister also kept on top of his temperament to remain on top of the leaderboard! Ames was the only winner, while Price and Els tied with 69s. For the 72-hole plays, Sutton shot 68 but it was only enough to edge one closer to Mickelson - now three shots behind - and remain eight behind Franco.

4th round plays:

David Toms to beat Craig Parry -120 @ Olympic
Basement battle for which the stats show that Toms tends to bounce back and Parry tends to lose interest

Stuart Appleby to beat Stephen Ames -135 @ Olympic
Ames freezes when on a Sunday leaderboard - e.g. 73 when 8th after 54 holes last week; enough to justify the chalk on 18 holes

Joel Edwards to beat Bob Burns -110 @ WSEX
Edwards wasn't fazed last week when on Sunday leaderboard - was 5th at start of day and shot 70 to finish 3rd

Scott McCarron to beat Scott Dunlap +110 @ Sportodds
Dunlap has very poor 4th round record and no real history of bouncing back from a 3rd day slide

Kevin Sutherland to beat Scott Hoch +114 @ Canbet
Excellent 4th round record for Sutherland and one would look comfortable if a top-10 position was reached

Bob Tway to beat Frank Lickliter +110 @ the Starnet books
Another whose stats show excellent past performance when in similar position on Sunday against one whose stats don't

Kirk Triplett to beat Paul Stankowski +100 @ Bowmans or Carib
Triplett always good for a decent finish, though winning this year was a surprise, still reserving judgement on this is a rebirth of Stankowski's career or a bubble of form

Final update: 4-3 and +0.75 units for the day; 8-9-1 and -2.10 units for the week

A winning final day, but not enough to make up for the rest of the week   Toms [3 shots], McCarron [4 shots], Tway [1 shot] and Triplett [7 shots] were all winners, but the other three weren't even close! On the 72-hole front, Sutton shot 74 to lost comfortably to Carlos Franco and Phil Mickelson.

That's two losing weeks in a row after bragging about my % of winning weeks this season. Been tasting humble pie too often these past two weeks; will make amends next week!