Greater Hartford Open

This event has yet to find its calendar home, in the last three years it has been in late July, then early July, then early August and now late June. Very strange. This year it follows the traditional birdie-fest of the St. Jude and with it being a TPC clone of a course, again the pros that like to play consecutive weeks have to re-adjust their games considerably. The course is not particularly long and there is little reward for length, this course, like Sawgrass, rewards the accurate players, those high in the greens in regulation rankings. Water does come into play on five holes and there are over 120 bunkers, but the test is to hit the small, Bentgrass greens which are typically very slick.

The top-three ranked are Davis Love, Stewart Cink and Kirk Triplett. Love was 14th here last year after having missed this event for six years. He fits the bill of the type of player to do well here, good from tee to green and on them as well, but he is a rather shaky favorite for this event. His swing changes do not seem to have him at ease with his game and he spectacularly missed the cut at the US Open. Nevertheless, with Victor Chandler offering 14/1 as opposed to the general 10/1 on him and with the e/w bet applicable to the first five places there rather than four, that seems the best proposition.

Stewart Cink is a much more likely top-10 finisher this week. He has played in this event four times and apart from his very first round, he has been under par in every round in that time. An impressive late-charging 8th at the US Open and nothing too taxing last week, he should be finely-tuned for this event. Again it is Victor Chandler who offer the best price, and at 16/1 the e/w shot is worth the lay.

Finally, Kirk Triplett has an excellent record on this course, averaging less than 70 for his 38 rounds here and was 2nd back in 1995. Apart from a collapse at the US Open, he has been in both excellent and consistent form with top-20 finishes almost every week. Again the e/w play is at Victor Chandler where he is priced 33/1.

Will have matchups plays posted this evening.

72-hole plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Notah Begay -110 @ WSEX [3 units]
Hoch may have lost the ability to win events, but consistent top-20 finisher. Begay will suffer a reaction after last week's victory; he's been through too much this year for it not to

Kirk Triplett to beat Notah Begay -120 @ Olympic [2 units]
Following in the same theme and as I've already singled out Triplett for a top-5 finish, looks just as good a bet at slightly worse odds

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Craig Parry -110 @ Olympic [2 units] [same odds @ Moneyplays]
Calc's record here reads 3rd, 5th, 16th and 3rd in the last four years, Parry has avoided this place for five years and he does not have the game for this course: Calc ranks 3rd in greens in regulation in this week's field, Parry ranks 119th

Bill Glasson to beat Craig Parry -111 @ Victor Chandler
Glasson has avoided this event for years like Parry, but he has been showing good form for a few months, unlike Parry, and he does rank high in those greens in regulation stats

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Lowery -111 @ Ladbrokes [same odds @ SIA]
Three consecutive missed cuts here for Lowery and with a game ill-equipped for River Highlands, I can't see his decent recent form continuing

Kevin Sutherland to beat Jean van de Velde -111 @ Easybets [2 units]
Gave up at the weekend, so not too much can be read into Sutherland's performance last week. However, four appearances, four top-25 finishes on this course is very newsworthy

1st round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Craig Parry -110 @ Five Dimes [same odds @ Playersbet]
Just confirmation of the 72-hole play for the 1st round at a smaller stake

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Neither player with any course form and I don't expect either to challenge for the lead this week, but a noticeable stat about Furyk is that whether we use a 6 month, 12 months 2, 3 or 4 year time-horizon, his 1st round scoring average is less than his 2nd round average, which is less than his 3rd and so on. Almost exactly the opposite for Weir. With more favorable tee-time expect Furyk to challenge tomorrow then fade.

Kirk Triplett to beat Brent Geiberger -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units] [same odds @ Playersbet]
More favorable tee-time and expected to challenge for the tournament, Triplett should easily beat a struggling Geiberger, defending champion or not

1st round update: 2-0-0 and +4.00 units

Calc showed his liking for this event by posting a 65 to beat Parry by four, while Triplett looks to be a decent e/w tip with an opening 64 to probably be the joint leader overnight and beat Geiberger by three. Of the 72-hole plays, one was declared void when Bill Glasson withdrew, but of the others, it was not a good time to oppose Notah Begay again! He also shot 64 and so leads Scott Hoch by seven and is tied with Triplett. Of the other three, Calc leads Parry by four, Triplett leads Lowery by one and Sutherland leads van de Velde by one.

Back with 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Robert Gamez -115 @ Playersbet [3 units]

Brent Geiberger to beat Kirk Triplett +110 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-0-0 and +4.00 units

Would have been tempted to take on the -150 on Calc available generally, but the -115 at Playersbet was a gift. Calc won by six shots, the same margin by which Geiberger defeated Triplett. Notah Begay continues to be a thorn in my side, following his opening 64 with a 65. He now leads Triplett by seven and has defeated Scott Hoch who missed the cut by one shot. None of the others were concluded at the cut, Calc leads Parry by nine, Triplett trails Lowery by two and Sutherland trails van de Velde by one.

Back with 3rd round plays in an hour.

3rd round plays:

Brent Geiberger to beat Robert Allenby +100 @ the Starnet books [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Tommy Armour -124 @ Sportbet [3 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Notah Begay -105 @ Canbet [2 units] [same odds @ Five Dimes]

Jay Don Blake to beat Wayne Grady -111 @ William Hill [3 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Craig Parry -135 @ Five Dimes

Steve Lowery to beat Jason Caron -139 @ William Hill [2 units]

Jeff Sluman to beat Trevor Dodds -125 @ William Hill [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Robert Gamez -135 @ Bowmans [3 units]

Ed Fryatt to beat Dave Stockton +100 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat Bradley Hughes -139 @ William Hill [2 units]

Skip Kendall to beat Jean van de Velde +100 @ William Hill [2 units]

3rd round update: 10-0-1 and +22.00 units

Today's results: Geiberger tied with Allenby; Flesch beat Armour by one and Gamez by three; Calcavecchia beat Begay by three and Parry by five; Blake beat Grady by one; Lowery beat Caron by one; Sluman beat Dodds by twelve; Fryatt beat Stockton by four; Triplett beat Hughes by fifteen; and Kendall beat van de Velde by two.

Improvement on the 72-hole plays as well. Triplett narrowed the gap to Begay to just one and now leads Lowery by six, while Calcavecchia leads Parry by fourteen and Sutherland leads van de Velde by two.

Back with 4th round plays in the morning.

4th round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Tommy Armour -125 @ GoTo Casino [same odds @ Island Casino, Sportbet & Playersbet]

Jim Furyk to beat Doug Barron -150 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Notah Begay +110 @ Carib [2 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat Notah Begay +100 @ Bowmans [3 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Paul Goydos -142 @ Canbet

Kirk Triplett to beat Ed Fryatt -145 @ Five Dimes

Brent Geiberger to beat Dave Stockton -125 @ Ladbrokes [3 units] [-151 @ Canbet where ties push]

Billy Mayfair to beat Gary Nicklaus -120 @ GoTo Casino [3 units] [same odds at other UGS books]

Final update: 2-4-1 and -8.00 units for the day; 19-6-2 and +21.30 units for the week

Hardly the final day to round off an otherwise stellar week!!! Appleby loses to Armour by one; Furyk ties with Barron; Calcavecchia loses to Begay by four; Triplett loses to Begay by three; Flesch beats Goydos by six; Triplett beats Fryatt by four and Geiberger loses to Stockton by two. Mayfair withdrew before the final round. of the 72-hole plays, Triplett lost to Begay by four, but beat Lowery by ten, while Calcavecchia beat Parry by seventeen and Sutherland beat van de Velde by eight.

Update on outright bets: 1-2 and +2.13 units

At last, a winner on the PGA Tour! Have had a couple in recent weeks on the European Tour, but not in the States. Triplett finished 3rd for a place win, but he could have delivered an even bigger win - he was leading the tournament after the 1st round, then slumped, then returned back into contention with a 3rd round 61! Cink for the 2nd week running was never in the tournament, finishing 14th and this is the 3rd time in four weeks I've backed Davis Love, and the third time he's been a loser. When will I learn?