Final update: 2-0-2 and +2.00 units for the day; 10-6-2 and +3.45 units for the week

As for today's plays Appleby and Sabbatini won, while Sutton and Weir could only tie. On the 72-hole front, both Appleby and Flesch hung on for narrow wins. Phew!

Not too bad a week in the end

4th round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Stephen Ames @ -110 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Hal Sutton to beat Carlos Franco @ -115 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Rory Sabbatini to beat Mike Hulbert @ -115 with Olympic

Mike Weir to beat Carl Paulson @ -135 with GoTo or Moneyplays

3rd round update:

Another break-even day: 2-2 on 3rd round plays   Furyk certainly did "bounce back with a vengeance"! He shot 65 to jump to 4th. Just as spectacular was the Marco Dawson pick. He shot 78 to fall to last! In between, Barlow won by three, but Martin lost by two as Nicklaus the Younger shocked by surging into the top-10 halfway through his round. He faltered coming home, but I really thought Martin's 70 would have been enough to win. Things improved on the 72-hole matchup front. Appleby finally overtook Kendall and now leads by one, the same degree by which Flesch leads Langer.

Back with 4th round plays in the morning. 

Update:

Kendall remains three ahead of Appleby, but of the other 72-hole matchups Craig Parry collapses from a top-10 position to shoot 74 to miss the cut and lose to Langer. On a day when not breaking 70 is considered poor, this is very disappointing! Cochran did close out his matchup when Carter missed the cut as did Weir when Kelly also missed the cut. In the one remaining, Flesch leads Langer by two. On a lower note the 2nd round picks when 1-2 with both dogs losing: Gogel by two and Weir by three despite shooting 69. J.P. Hayes won by a very comfortable six and leads the tournament at the halfway stage.

For the 3rd round there are 3 plays. The first is Craig Barlow to beat Bob Heintz. Both are 13th in the tournament at the halfway stage, which is quite an achievement for Heintz who has missed six cuts out of eight so far this year. But in this position, Barlow has played well under the pressure. Since the start of last year he has been in the top-20 four times at the half-way stage; the worst score he has made in the 3rd round has been 70 in this position. Heintz has had a high of 29th after two rounds and in the two occasion he has made the cut he has not even reached 70 in the 3rd round. 

The second is Marco Dawson to beat Mike Hulbert, both also lie in 13th position which represents a high for Dawson this year, but for Hulbert it represents a minor miracle. He has missed the cut in all six events he has played in so far! Talk about paying under pressure to earn money to keep your card! Dawson has had fairly good 3rd round scores this year: three 70s and two 73s. This is his first full year on Tour for some time, but he has the experience to make this good start count. The last time Hulbert broke 70 in the 3rd round was June 1997 in the St Jude Classic. Just can't see the miracle comeback continuing today.

The third is Jim Furyk to beat Bernhard Langer. Furyk's come-down yesterday was to be expected after the dramatic way in which he won the event last week and after an opening 68 laid him open to the new pressures of possible back-to-back wins. He will bounce back will a vengeance today. The reasons for opposing Langer have already been outlined in the match-up against Parry, currently in 50th he is not noted for charges from so deep and this will be no more than practice for Augusta.

Finally Casey Martin is expected to beat Gary Nicklaus. Martin did shoot a level-par 72 to fall out of the top-10 to 24th position, but that was helped enormously by a horrible triple-bogey seven at the 18th. For 35 holes his game has been immaculate. To then make him a dog against someone who's top finish is 40th this year and has yet to break 70 in his 3rd round [Martin did so in his last tournament on the way to a 17th place finish in the Tucson Open] is amazing.

Staking plan:

Craig Barlow to beat Bob Heintz @ +100 with Sportingbet

Marco Dawson to beat Mike Hulbert @ +110 [+105 after 2.5% tax] with Blue Sq  [+100 at Sportingbet]

Jim Furyk to beat Bernhard Langer -133 with Sportodds [-138 with Sportingbet]

Casey Martin to beat Gary Nicklaus @ -110 with the Starnet books

1st round update:

Jeez! Where did that round from Skip Kendall come from??? His lowest score of the year on a course on which he's never made the cut   Confident he won't keep up this pace, but means a loss on the 1st round play   Was a little unsure about it when I saw Appleby was playing in the afternoon and Kendall in the morning, but it's too late now! At least Weir defeated Kelly by four shots to split the 1st day plays and limit the damage.

On the 72-hole plays, apart from Appleby's three-shot deficit to Mike Weir, things aren't too bad. Parry leads Langer by three shots, while Flesch does so by one. Cochran also leads Carter by one and Weir holds that four-shot advantage over Kelly.

There are three picks for the 2nd round: Matt Gogel to beat Carlos Franco, J.P. Hayes to beat Brian Henninger and Mike Weir to bear Hal Sutton. Today was a day without wind and a course without defense. The weather forecast for the second round suggest no great difference, but there is to be a small, but perceptible increase in wind speeds up to at most 15mph in the afternoon. Franco is not a wind player. But there is also the added consideration that he is playing with tendonitis in his left wrist. Obviously didn't affect him today, but it could quite possibly be an important factor tomorrow. As to whether Gogel will wilt under the pressure of being the joint 1st round leader, I don't think so. HE has made his good scores from good 1st round positions. This year he has been 8th after the 1st round of the AT&T and finished 2nd [69-68 the scores in the first two days] and 12th after the 1st round of the five-round Bob Hope and finished 7th [66-67].

The second is all about experience. Hayes was the leader after the 1st round at the Nissan Open three weeks and shot 70 in the 2d round, a good score in the circumstance and finished 10th on the week. Henninger's leadership of round one has only occurred once, in 1994, six years ago and he collapsed to finish 64th in the tournament. That was a long time ago, but Hayes is also a player in form. He has finished in the top-10 in his last two tournaments; Henninger has missed the cut in his last four. It is one more reason why Hayes will be the more comfortable player tomorrow.

Finally, the odds on Weir to beat Sutton are the main draw on this one. Both played very good golf in the more difficult afternoon conditions, though Sutton was the only one of the two to record a bogey. Both have had three top-10 finishes this year and both have struggled on this course. Weir missed the cut in 1998, while Sutton has missed it two times out of three at Heron Bay. In his only weekend action here, last year, he finished 7th, but only after an opening 64 was immediately followed by rounds of 73 and 76. Probably won't see a similar collapse, but this matchup should be very much closer than it is being priced.

Staking plan:

Matt Gogel to beat Carlos Franco @ +110 with Moneyplays or GoTo

J.P. Hayes to beat Brian Henninger @ -125 with GoTo

Mike Weir to beat Hal Sutton @ +105 with Moneyplays

The Honda Classic

Poor field, poor course. Need to bet on it to keep up the interest, but wouldn't even work for Stuart Appleby. Of Heron Bay, he said "the main problem was staying awake" and he was the winner in 1997 and finished in the top-10 ever since! If he can't enjoy this week, who can? "Flat and boring" is the consensus among the professionals on the PGA Tour and that may be a reason why so many have stayed away this week. But at least it means lot of new names on the matchups and that means unfamiliar territory for the linemaker

The longer-hitters have tended to do well on this track over their straighter colleagues and John Daly was indeed 4th two years ago. What price a repeat??? Water does figure on every hole, though it is the wind that is the dominant factor in scoring on this course. It is not expected to be unduly harsh, unlike 1993 when at the nearby Weston Hills golf course the tournament was abandoned when balls were being blown off the greens! The greens at Heron Bay are Bermudagrass again and have actually won a lot of praise from the players, it's just the rest of the course that is a course for insomniacs!

The first two picks are two Australians who are used to these types of greens, this type of wind and have played well on this course in its three-year history. Stuart Appleby has been 1st, 4th and 9th in that time, while Craig Parry has finished 4th, m/c and 27th, but he is also the joint course record holder. Appleby is matched against a totally out of sorts Skip Kendall who has missed the cut in four of his seven tournaments this year and has a highest finish of 28th. He has also missed the cut on both times he has played on this course so, in total, this is one hell of a mismatch!

Parry is up against Bernard Langer who let a promising early position slip last week. He has been a regular competitor in this event as preparation for the Masters and in the past three years on this course he has finished 22nd, 26th and missed the cut last year. But he is a player past his best and if there is any wind, then this should be a formality for "Popeye". Also looking to oppose Langer with Steve Flesch. The Cincinnati lefty wins this hands down on paper. His only appearance on this course was in 1998; he was 15th which is better than Langer has done in any of the past three years. He is also in a run of three consecutive top-10 finishes involving fields much stronger than this; Langer has not achieved such a run since 1995!

On a course in which good length off the tee and good hands on the greens are important, then Russ Cochran looks to be a decent bet against Jim Carter. We got burned opposing Carter last week, but Cochran is in certainly as strong a vein of form - two top-10 finishes in last three events - and he is well ahead of Carter in the important stats this week. His may only be 59th in driving distance, but Carter is 129th and he tops the putting average charts. This is Carter's eighth tournament in nine weeks, looking for him to run out of gas - or fall asleep - this week.

The final 72-hole pick is Mike Weir to beat Jerry Kelly. On course form, this is a matchup of no-hopers. Kelly has missed the cut twice and finished 22nd in his other appearance in this event; Weir missed the cut in 1996 and 1998,his two previous appearances. But the Canadian is a much more accomplished performer nowadays and already has three top-10 finishes under his belt this season, despite not setting the golf world alight as he did in the second half of last year. If the wind is a factor, this should also be in Weir's favor on past experience and in such a weak field, he could really set his season on its expected footing with any scent of victory this week.

As for the 1st round matchups, then it appears natural to also combine the plays on Appleby and Weir with 1st round plays as well. Both are playing in the afternoon, but as long as the current weather forecast for only moderate winds at that time persist, then these seem decent enough plays. More than the others, waiting for a decent weather forecast before making the play is important.

Staking plan:

Stuart Appleby to beat Skip Kendall @ -155 with Moneyplays

Craig Parry to beat Bernhard Langer @ -110 with Victor Chandler

Steve Flesch to beat Bernhard Langer @ -125 with Sportingbet

Russ Cochran to beat Jim Carter @ -110 with Victor Chandler

Mike Weir to bear Jerry Kelly @ -105 with Intertops

Stuart Appleby to beat Skip Kendall [1st round] @ -135 with Moneyplays

Mike Weir to beat Jerry Kelly [1st round] @ -115 with Moneyplays or GoTo