The International

Made-for-TV golf or just a welcome break from strokeplay, this event is certainly unique and always attracts a high quality field. The Stableford scoring system is modified to reward attacking play by making points gained for scoring sub-par about twice the level of those lost for scoring over-par: double-eagle +8pts; eagle +5pts; birdie +2pts; par 0pts; bogey -1pt; double-bogey and above -3pts. It can make this rather a difficult event to cap as it rewards luck much more than other events: a holed fairway shot is rewarded very highly, but finding water is not too punitive. Last year Tiger Woods missed the cut - but he had won the PGA the week before in rather dramatic fashion - and Clarence Rose this event in 1996. But this aside, the list of former winners reads like a 'Who's Who' of golf and even in this format, cream usually rises to the top.

The course is extremely long at 7,559 yards, but in the thin desert air the ball travels 10-15% further, so this is in effect a short course. There is no point in having such a format if the course didn't offer up very many eagle or birdies opportunities. Like most Jack Nicklaus designs, the course favours a high fade [for the right-hander] and while two of the four par-fives are over 600 yards, extra length off the tee does open up the possibility of eagles. The greens are Bentgrass and usually fast, though they have recently been reduced in size. This week there are two cuts - the first after 36 holes is for the lowest 70 players and ties and then after the 3rd round, only the lowest 36 and ties progress to Sunday. It used to be just the lowest 24 with a playoff needed if there were ties.

The top-ranked is Phil Mickelson and by a decent margin. He has played this event every year since joining the Tour in 1992, winning this event twice and being 2nd once. On only one occasion has he recorded a negative score in those thirty rounds. Currently 2nd in the eagle stats to Tiger Woods and 6th in the birdie stats, this looks the perfect event for Lefty who needs a top-4 finish to take his earning in this event alone to over $1 million. Looks a justifiable favorite if odds of 8/1 and above can be found.

Ernie Els, this year's nearly man, has a solid record of going close here, but not winning. David Duval has a very mixed record here: 2nd last year and 5th in 1995, but missed the first cut in the intervening years. The early odds have them as equal favorites to Mickelson and at those prices will be passed over. Instead Steve Flesch looks the best value in the early odds. He has played this event twice and has finished in the top-10 both times. He is a more complete player this year and currently stands in the top-10 in the eagle and birdie stats. Available at 33/1 it represents great value, but as ever will wait until the tee-times are announced before making final outright plays.

Will have early matchup plays in an hour.

Outright plays:

The first and obvious choice is Phil Mickelson. Have already outlined why I think he is the main man this week and am surprised to see him priced behind Els and Duval at some places. The 12/1 on offer at Sportodds [same odds @ DAS] is very generous and well worth the e/w punt just as a failsafe. As mentioned earlier I will readily pass over Els and Duval at the odds on offer and plump for two 'gray' rather than dark horses: Steve Flesch and Kirk Triplett. Have already outlined my prior lean on Flesch - enough to say he has recorded the highest number of birdies and the 2nd highest [behind Mickelson] number of eagles on Tour this year. Just needs to carry on doing what he's been doing and the 33/1 e/w play at Sportodds could be very profitable!

Normally it is good play to oppose players involved in a playoff the previous week, especially when it is played on the Monday and there is a fair degree of flying involved afterwards, but Triplett seemed to positively enjoy the playoff despite almost always looking second best and I don't think he will be too damaged by the experience. If he hadn't won the Nissan earlier in the year and both players were looking for their maiden win it may have been a different matter. He is in fine form, has been 18th, 15th and then 10th in the last three years here and stands 4th in the Tour's birdie average stats. He is an attractive 40/1 e/w shot at Victor Chandler who also pay place bets on the first five places.

Will have matchup plays up soon.

72-hole plays:

Kirk Triplett to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ Victor Chandler
Appleby more of a poor weather player, rather than a birdie blitzer. Was 2nd in 1997 but very unimpressive otherwise

Steve Flesch to beat Notah Begay -105 @ Olympic [2 units]  [same odds @ GoTo Casino, Playersbet, Enterbet & On-Line Casino]
Begay ranks only 33rd in eagles and 123rd in the birdies stats - not a good omen for this week and maybe a reason why he failed to make it to Sunday last year

Skip Kendall to beat John Cook -110 @ Dunes [2 units]
Got to oppose a player who has had only one eagle all year [ranked 182nd] and is ranked 160th in the birdie average stats. Kendall is streets ahead in both those stats and was 3rd three years ago

Kevin Sutherland to beat Bob Estes -105 @ Dunes [2 units]
Poor record in this event, would rank only 76th in birdie average if counted in official stats and without an eagle all year; even the solid but rarely-contending Sutherland can beat that

Steve Flesch to beat Mike Weir -135 @ Bowmans
He is expected to do better this year, but two 36-hole cuts in the last three years is not conducive to being with Weir this week

Kirk Triplett to beat Justin Leonard -110 @ Olympic  [available generally @ the UGS books and Canbet]
Leonard is one for tough courses, not this one. Hence his ranking of 128th in the birdie average stats and his avoidance of this event in recent years

Chris Perry to beat Steve Lowery -111 @ Victor Chandler
Lowery's game has been somewhat re-born of late, but his three-year record of missed cut #1 [1 pt], withdrawn [0 pts] and withdrawn [-1 pt] is shockingly bad. Perry will make it to Sunday, that should be enough

David Toms to beat Steve Lowery -120 @ CRIS  [same odds @ Gamblers Palace]
Reunited with his clubs, Toms is one of the form horses and as the defending champion - and 11th the year before - he is well-suited to this event

David Toms to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Just can't see Olly keeping his driver under enough control to create the birdie & eagle opportunities this week; more of a warm-up for the PGA and WGC-NEC

1st round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Notah Begay -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Notah Begay -110 @ the UGS books

Frank Lickliter to beat Franklin Langham -110 @ Five Dimes

Did like Duval against Els & Singh for the 1st round, but after he had to withdraw from the pro-am after 14 holes because of his bad back, best to be safe and hold off.

1st round update: 2-1-0 and +1.90 units

Two wins against Begay though he make a strong comeback this morning - just not enough. Flesch beat him by 1 point and Appleby beat him by 10 points. Lickliter played poorly and Langham beat him by 4 points. Glad I played safe on Duval - he gave up after six holes!

Standings on the 72-hole plays currently 4-3-2: Triplett/Appleby 7 down; Flesch/Begay 1 up; Kendall/Cook 1 down; Sutherland/Estes 8 up; Flesch/Weir all square; Triplett/Leonard 10 up; Perry/Lowery 2 down; Toms/Lowery all square; Toms/Olazabal 7 up.

No 2nd round plays. Much too unpredictable with points format and delayed conclusion of 1st round.

No 3rd round plays either

Final update: 6-5-1 and +3.14 units for the week

No plays in the final round either and only the Triplett-Appleby play lasted until today as well. Triplett had a horrible day to finish 22 points behind Appleby. Of the plays that ended after the 1st cut, Flesch lost to Begay and Weir, Kendall tied with Cook, Sutherland beat Estes, while Toms lost to Lowery and beat Olazabal. Two plays were concluded after the 2nd cut: Triplett beat Leonard and Perry beat Leonard. Look forward to next week's Buick Open, it should be much easier to cap

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.50 units

So close! Mickelson just couldn't quite make up the difference to Els and finished 2nd to earn a modest place win. Triplett needed a good day to make the top-5, but he had the opposite and fell to 35th, while Steve Flesch was a surprising casualty after the first cut.