Invensys Classic

Early season and late season we have these nonsense events. The Tour stopover in Las Vegas may be popular among the pros, but the pro-am format is not. When players are trying desperately to hold onto their Tour cards or even just qualify for the Tour Championship, being paired with amateurs and playing on artificially easy courses trivializes the whole affair. These events therefore bring to the fore the more experienced players and the ones more at ease with distractions. Hal Sutton has a terrible record in these events, Fred Couples has an excellent one. Two people with different degrees of intensity and therefore suitability to the pro-am format.

The event is played over three courses - Summerlin, Desert Inn & Southern Highlands - which are played in rotation on the first three days, then only the Summerlin course is played at the weekend after the cut. All three courses are over 7000 yards, but play much shorter in the thin desert air. The greens are large, but will be soft, so birdies will come easily. The course record at Summerlin is 60, set by Tommy Armour last year, while Jim Furyk's winning score was 29-under-par. With the Summerlin course also boasting wide fairways, it is something of a surprise that Jim Furyk has won this event for the past two season - he is no long-hitting birdie machine. Again, it shows suitability to format is important this week.

There has been some doubt that Furyk is playing this week, though I have a reliable source who insists that he is. Just as well as he my top-ranked player this week. His form has not exactly been spectacular of late, but he did have a top-20 finish last week and his record here reads: 5th (1994), 1st (1995), 22nd (1996), 19th (1997), 1st (1998) and 1st (1999). His average round in this event is 67.50 and the courses are all par-72! The early lines do not have him listed, but he should represent value from about 12/1 upwards.

Second-ranked is Davis Love who is attracting relatively large odds because his form has been unimpressive for quite a while. Nevertheless he has had four top-5 finishes in his last seven visits including victory in 1993 and he is a long-hitting birdie machine. He currently ranks 7th in the Tour driving distance stats and 3rd in the birdie average stats. Like Furyk though, his last outing was a top-20 finish (Buick Challenge) and he does look good value @ 20/1.

Looking at the early odds, there are no real outsiders that look capable of winning, so this may be a week to pass on those. A third player to note in this case would be Mark Calcavecchia. He missed the cut last year, but had finished 2nd, 4th and 3rd in the three years prior. With his putter behaving uncharacteristically well, he could be a strong challenger and fit the mould of Furyk as a pro-am specialist (he has a good record in the Bob Hope Classic as well) rather than that of Love.

Will have final plays later today once the tee-times and course rotation has been announced.

Sticking to original outright plays of Furyk, Love and Calcavecchia and very happy with the odds available. Intertops were one of the first to have Furyk listed rather than one of the field and they offered 6/1. No value there, but there is with William Hill who are also short on a number of the top players, including Davis Love. Finally, Calc represents great value in the e/w play, especially as the first five places are payable with Paddy Power.

The outright plays:

Jim Furyk 14/1 @ William Hill  [e/w payable on first four places]

Davis Love 20/1 @ William Hill  [e/w payable on first four places]

Mark Calcavecchia 33/1 @ Paddy Power  [e/w payable on first four places]

Will have matchup plays shortly.

90-hole plays:

Joel Edwards to beat Brad Faxon -120 @ Five Dimes
Two top-20s and a 5th place since September for Edwards looks very impressive against Faxon who really struggles to make the weekend

Steve Flesch to beat Fred Funk -133 @ Easybets [2 units]
As with Edwards, the selection has much better current form and a better recent record in this event. Can't for much more than that

Jean van de Velde to beat Fred Funk -111 @ Paddy Power
Has made an impressive debut on PGA Tour and Velde has the personality to make an impression this week, not so Funk

Chris Perry to beat Mike Weir -111 @ William Hill [2 units]
Extremely consistent and 4th last year, Perry could go close. Apart from 2nd at the Michelob, Weir has suggested little to expect a birdie barrage this week

Chris Perry to beat Chris DiMarco -140 @ WWTS
Much too slow to get the best line on this matchup, but DiMarco's record in this event - two missed cuts - is enough reason to oppose him in this format

1st round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Scott McCarron -133 @ Centrebet

Stewart Cink to beat Jerry Kelly -135 @ Five Dimes

Kevin Sutherland to beat Robert Damron -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jeff Sluman to beat Fred Funk -115 @ Five Dimes

Jean van de Velde to beat Billy Mayfair -130 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 2-1-2 and +0.69 units

Came through the 1st day intact when only guessing how hard the Southern Highlands course was. It actually ranked the hardest of the three by two shots over Desert Inn and one shot over Summerlin. Quite a difference across the courses! Five Dimes have played safe and all their matchups today involve players on the same course. Yesterday's winners were Cink by six over Kelly and Sluman by two over Funk, while Kevin Sutherland tied with Damron, Van de Velde tied with Mayfair and Appleby lost by seven to McCarron.

The 72-hole plays stand a poor 1-4-0: Edwards/Faxon 7 down; Flesch/Funk 3 up; Van de Velde/Funk 2 down; Perry/Weir 5 down; Perry/DiMarco 6 down, but until each player has played the same courses such standings are very provisional.

2nd round plays:

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Olin Browne -110 @ Five Dimes

Scott Verplank to beat Fred Couples -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Glen Day to beat Brad Faxon -105 @ Five Dimes

Bradley Hughes to beat Brian Henninger -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Billy Mayfair to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Pete Jordan to beat Dennis Paulson +100 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 4-2-0 and +4.80 units

A nice profit on the day with the 2nd round plays as Maruyama beats Browne by one, Verplank beats Couples by two, Day beats Faxon by four, Hughes loses to Henninger by three, Mayfair beats Howell by four and Jordan loses to Paulson by four.

The 72-hole plays now stand 0-4-1, which is worse than yesterday, but some of the deficits were narrowed: Edwards/Faxon 1 down; Flesch/Funk all square; Van de Velde/Funk 3 down; Perry/Weir 5 down; Perry/DiMarco 5 down. Still one more day on the course rotation to go, so these are not 'true' standings.

Back in the morning with 3rd round plays.

3rd round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Scott McCarron +100 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Bob Estes to beat Jim Carter -115 @ Five Dimes

Joel Edwards to beat Joe Durant -115 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Dudley Hart -118 @ Centrebet [2 units]

3rd round update: 1-3-0 and -4.51 units

Ugly day! Estes is a two-shot winner over Carter, while Appleby shoots 67 and loses by a single shot to McCarron. The rest was not so good: Edwards lost to Durant by five and Sutton lost to Hart by six. Of the five 90-hole plays, four are decided at the cut and all four are losers: Edwards by three to Faxon [one shy of making the cut]; Velde by three to Funk; Perry by thirteen to Weir and by six to DiMarco. In the only remaining 90-hole play, Flesch leads Funk by three.

Have to make amends in the morning!

4th round plays:

Phil Mickelson to beat Rich Beem -165 @ On-Line Casino [3 units]

Bob May to beat Rocco Mediate @ On-Line Casino  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

4th round update: 2-0-0 and +4.00 units

Very quiet for a penultimate round, but the two plays were winners: Mickelson by four over Beem and May by one over Mediate. The remaining 72-hole play looks good with Flesch opening up a seven shot lead over Funk. With just one round to go, looks like the week should finish in the black.

Back with final round plays in the morning.

Final round plays:

John Cook to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

John Cook to beat Steve Lowery -115 @ Five Dimes

Scott Verplank to beat Lee Janzen -115 Moneyplays  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

Davis Love to beat Billy Mayfair -163 @ Sportingbet

Scott McCarron to beat Shaun Micheel -110 @ Paddy Power [2 units]

Final update: 3-2-0 and +0.17 units for the day; 13-12-2 and +1.20 units for the week

A long week and nothing more than a break-even one on the PGA Tour. Cook shoots 67 to beat Beam by four and Lowery by one, while Verplank beats Janzen by one. Davis Love is a costly two-shot loss though, as is McCarron one-shot defeat by Micheel. The sole 90-hole play that survives the cut is a winner though, Verplank by thirteen shots over Funk. Hoping for more return to my efforts next week.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Back-to-back winners and now back-to-back shutouts   Furyk finished in 17th place, Love in 40th place and Calc missed the cut.