John Deere Classic

Like the Dutch Open, this week's European Tour event, there is no course form as this is a new venue for the PGA Tour. The course was built and opened only last year on land donated by Deere himself - it was a condition of sponsorship of the event that a new TPC course was built and used for this event. Makes capping a bit of a lottery, but it should lead to a few more mismatches than usual.

The course is long at almost 7,200 yards and being a par-71, it should be a stern test with ravines and tree-lined fairways adding to the quality of the course. The greens are small with Bentgrass surfaces, but their quality is unknown being so young. Nevertheless, initial reports are universally favourable on the D.A. Weibring-designed course.

The top two ranked are Bill Glasson and David Toms. Unsurprisingly both are the headline players in the early odds. There has been a marked improvement in Glasson's golf since he regained full fitness. He is now in the top-25 in this year's stats for greens in regulation and total driving and as evidence of his return to form, he now stands 19th in the 'All Round' category, having been 131st earlier in the year. He was 3rd last week and having not played at the British Open will not be suffering from the effects of travelling. That cannot be said for Toms, but he gave such an inspired display at St Andrews that the momentum should carry him on through this week at least. He won this event two years ago when it was called the Quad Cities Open and played on a different course and his last four starts have finished 16th, 15th, 9th and 4th. Very impressive run of form and should impress again in a very weak field.

The dark horse is Russ Cochran, currently price at 50/1 with Sportingbet. At his best with the flat stick, not at his best with the driver, this may not be the ideal course for him. But at the moment there is no way of telling, only that Loren Roberts has lately been showing that good putting can make up for a lot of weaknesses elsewhere. Has finished in the top-10 in two of his last three events and like Glasson does not have the effects of travelling to contend with this week. Will wait on other prices to be published for the other two, but can't see 50/1 for Cochran being bettered.

Early 72-hole plays:

John Cook to beat Mark Brooks -111 @ Easybets [2 units]
Definitely a play against an out of sorts Brooks. He may be high in the putting stats, but this should be the least rewarding aspect on a new course. Extremely poor start to the season for Cook, but has recorded two top-10 finishes in last two months

Jeff Sluman to beat Fred Funk -118 @ Sportodds
Better play in the past month from Sluman, including making the cut at the British Open which Funk didn't. Both should struggle on a long course, but looking for a more determined effort from home-state Sluman

Bill Glasson to beat Skip Kendall -120 @ Bowmans
Glasson should be too good for this type of field as outlined above; too long a course for Kendall

Tim Herron to beat Billy Mayfair -115 @ Intertops
When he's good, he's good, when he's bad ... seems to be the Lumpy's season so far. Think this will be a good week for Herron with another top-20 position in the offing. With no top-20 finish for Mayfair since March, that would be more than enough against a shorter hitter

Jeff Sluman to beat Billy Mayfair -135 @ Bowmans [2 units]
Confirmation of above plays. If Sluman makes the cut, should have a very good chance of winning this matchup

Players who have withdrawn from the event:

Doug Barron
Mark Brooks
Brandel Chamblee
Russ Cochran
Doug Dunakey
Matt Gogel
Ken Green
Donnie Hammond
Wayne Levi
Billy Mayfair
Gene Sauers
Esteban Toledo

Have lost three of my early matchups plays and my dark horse for the outright - not a great start to the week! Will update the list as I hear of more.

Adding two more:

Doug Dunakey
Ken Green

Adding 72-hole plays:

Jeff Sluman to beat Fred Funk -118 @ Sportodds
Adding another unit now the tee-times are known

Bill Glasson to beat Steve Jones -111 @ Ladbrokes [3 units]
Some better form of late from Jones, but woefully poor greens in regulation stats. The core to any good score, in the absence of course form, it is hard to see how Jones will play well on this course.

Bill Glasson to beat Skip Kendall -120 @ Bowmans
Adding another unit now the tee-times are known

Jeff Sluman to beat Steve Jones +110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Everyone else has this line as evenly matched, so surprised this one so far out of line. Fancy a top-10 finish for Sluman, which should be easily enough

Jeff Sluman to beat Skip Kendall -111 @ Ladbrokes
Another play on Sluman and another play on Kendall; means either a very good or a very bad week

Scott Verplank to beat Frank Lickliter -111 @ Easybets
Top-10 in each of the last three outings in this event for Verplank should bolster his confidence this week even if the event is being played on a new course

Final odds on outright plays:

Toms 12/1, Glasson 16/1 and replacing Cochran with Triplett 40/1, all prices with Ladbrokes. Triplett is generally priced at 20/1 elsewhere, so very glad of the odds. On ability alone, he should be up there with the leaders, particularly in this field. Still has problems with fragile temperament despite finally winning on Tour earlier this year, probably hence the price.

Adding:

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Jones -111 @ DAS [2 units]
Another play against Jones when up against a high quality opponent, now my dark horse for this tournament. Not convinced that someone ranked 170th in greens in regulation can be consistent enough during the week to finish in the top-10 [Triplett is ranked 10th]

News:

David Toms has arrived back from St Andrews, but his clubs are yet to be found. Could be a belated chance to oppose an otherwise strong favorite.

1st round plays:

Glen Day to beat Harrison Frazar -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Joe Durant to beat Craig Parry -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Fred Funk to beat Tim Herron -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Lowery to beat Bill Glasson +105 @ Enterbet [2 units]

Steve Jones to beat Jeff Sluman -110 @ Five Dimes

Skip Kendall to beat Kevin Sutherland -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Bob Tway to beat Frank Lickliter +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Steve Lowery to beat Scott Verplank -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Joe Ogilvie to beat Kirk Triplett -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

1st round update: 2-4-3 and -6.90 units

Not a good day. The results: Day/Frazar 4 down; Durant/Parry 1 up; Funk/Herron 3 down; Lowery/Glasson 1 down; Jones/Sluman all square; Kendall/Sutherland all square; Tway/Lickliter 4 down; Lowery/Verplank all square; Ogilvie/Triplett 1 up.

Much better on the 72-hole plays, currently standing 4-1-2: Sluman/Funk all square; Glasson/Kendall 5 up; Glasson/Jones 2 up; Sluman/Jones all square; Sluman/Kendall 3 up; Verplank/Lickliter 2 down; Triplett/Jones 1 up.

Will have 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Jeff Sluman to beat Steve Jones -115 @ Five Dimes

Kirk Triplett to beat Joe Ogilvie -125 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-0-0 and +2.00 units

A good bounce back after yesterday's mare   Sluman defeats Jones by one and Triplett defeats Ogilvie by three. Two 72-hole plays were concluded at the cut: Sluman defeated Kendall by five and Glasson defeated Kendall by ten. Standings in the other plays also looking favorable: Sluman/Funk all square; Glasson/Jones 6 up; Sluman/Jones 1 up; Verplank/Lickliter 2 down; Triplett/Jones 5 up.

Back with 3rd round plays in the morning.

3rd round plays:

Just one so far, but it looks a real bad line   A classic play is against the overnight leader, especially one with a large lead and to oppose him with one of the picks for the event is just a gift. Nothing else of interest yet.

Bill Glasson to beat David Frost -115 @ the Starnet books [3 units]

Adding:

Bill Glasson to beat Paul Curry -188 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]

3rd round update: 2-0-0 and +5.00 units

Glasson was not at his best, but was sufficiently under less pressure than overnight leader David Frost to beat him by two shots. Expected Paul Curry backwards - he did, but not a great deal and was rather lucky to secure a one-shot winner there. Steve Jones shot 65 to worsen the state of the remaining 72-hole plays a little, though still 3-2-0 ahead. They stand: Sluman/Funk 2 up; Glasson/Jones 3 up; Sluman/Jones 2 down; Verplank/Lickliter 1 down; Triplett/Jones 8 up. With Triplett 1st and Glasson 4th, hopeful of a good week on the outright plays. If only I'd left that 1st round alone

Back later with 4th round plays.

Early 4th round plays:

Robert Damron to beat Jerry Kelly -115 @ Carib

Tim Herron to beat David Frost -128 @ Sportbet [2 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat David Frost -145 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Bill Glasson to beat Jerry Kelly -124 @ Sportbet [3 units]

Joe Ogilvie to beat Jerry Kelly -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Lowery to beat Casey Martin -135 @ Carib [3 units]

John Cook to beat Fred Funk [tournament] +125 @ Olympic [3 units]

Scott McCarron to beat Ted Tryba [tournament] -130 @ Olympic [2 units]

Adding:

Bill Glasson to beat David Frost -140 @ Bowmans [3 units]

Bill Glasson to beat Charles Howell -125 @ William Hill

4th round update: 6-4-0 and +8.33 units; 17-9-4 and +14.43 units for the week

Not a good day to be on Bill Glasson, but David Frost made up for it   The 4th round results: Damron/Kelly 2 down; Herron/Frost 4 up; Triplett/Frost 3 up; Glasson/Kelly 2 down; Ogilvie/Kelly 4 down; Lowery/Martin 7 up; Glasson/Frost 1 up; Glasson/Howell 6 down. And the Olympic tournament plays: Cook/Funk 6 up & McCarron/Tryba 3 up.

Pleasing record of 5-1-1 on the 72-hole plays with the only loss being Sluman to Jones by 1 shot. Of the other remaining plays, Sluman beat Funk by five, Glasson tied with Jones, Verplank beat Lickliter by one and Triplett beat Jones by seven.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +3.00 units

Had already made the play on Toms before got the news about the clubs, so a predictable loss. Glasson had a poor final day to fall out of contention to 12th, but Triplett survived some early final day jitters to recover superbly and secure a playoff that he ... LOST