Final update: 5-2-1 and +2.52 units for the day; 13-5-3 and +7.67 units for the week

A very good day to close with, but maybe the scores were better than the picks? The only bad pick was Mark O'Meara. He lost both his matchups, by three to Franco and by one to Wiebe. The real lucky pick was Ernie Els who shot 74 and still managed a push, though the play was against Lowery and he did falter   The slightly luck pick was Davis Love who shot 71 but only hit five greens in regulation, yet he still won both his matchups against Begay and Hoch, of which the latter was definitely a 'go-against' play. That leaves only two of the five picks being good picks. Cink was a good one of course as he went on to win the event and defeat Mize by five on the day. Perry was also a decent one. He shot 69 and that was enough to continue his climb up the leaderboard and defeat Janzen by two and Nicklaus by six.

The 72-hole matchups finished 4-0-1 with the only push being in the Love-Els match; it sure made Love's birdie on the last feel sweet! In the two other matchups surviving the cut, Perry defeated Janzen by two, the same margin by which Parnevik defeated Hoch.

The double-unit week still remains elusive, but there's always the Greater Greensboro Open. Full field stats and preview available tomorrow evening.

4th round picks

Quite a big selection this week! Love may have played poorly yesterday, but when he closed with two birdies he kept himself very much in the tournament. With his bad round out of the way, he is expected to capitalize on that finish and push Els very hard - we need him to as they feature in one of our 72-hole picks! One of his opponents, Notah Begay, was a losing pick yesterday despite shooting 68, but his stats this week have been unimpressive. He may keep his top-5 position, but a challenge for the lead is not predicted. The other opponent, Scott Hoch, scored the lowest round of the day yesterday with a 64, so he is a classic oppose. That his record when so high on the leaderboard on Sundays is not great is an added bonus.

Similar things can be said about Larry Mize and Steve Lowery who stand 4th and 2nd respectively. The last time Mize was in the top-8 at this stage of the tournament was at the Greater Hartford Open, July 1998; much too rusty for the pressure they'll face this afternoon. The last time Lowery was in the top-5 at this stage of the tournament was at the Byron Nelson, May 1999, when he shot 77. Rusty and not a good record when in the current position, the added pressure of making it count re: money and keeping his card, will be too much for his game. They are opposed by respectively Stewart Cink who played in the final few groups as lately as the Bay Hill Classic and shot 70 - plus there is a good price offered by BlueSq who no longer impose the betting tax on stakes - and Ernie Els, who despite being the leader and a poor price, will be far too imposing a partner for Lowery to handle.

A fourth prediction is a good day for Mark O'Meara. Despite his missed cut at the Masters last week, O'Meara has been playing much better this year than in the previous two; he even managed a 9th place finish at the TPC three weeks ago when he jumped from 28th after round 3 [currently 20th] with a closing 67. He is generally one who keep trying on Sundays even when unable to win a tournament, something that cannot be said about Franco who has the talent to do better. Whether Wiebe has such talent is debatable, but he seems to have reached his 'comfort zone' on the leaderboard. After opening with 3 birdies in the first eight holes, he parred in from there onwards. His 4th round scores also show little evidence of last day charges.

Finally, Chris Perry is expected to continue his charge up the leaderboard. His is one who does not bounce back in such circumstances on Sundays. His inward nine of 29 was spectacular and when he ranks 6th for the week in greens in regulation and 18th in driving accuracy, his game seems as equipped as his temperament for a repeat of yesterday's 65. He is doubled-up in two senses of the word. His is pitted against two players for the fourth round, but one of those, Lee Janzen, with whom is he is level, is his 72-hole opponent. Janzen similarly climbed quite a few places with a 66 yesterday, but his 4th round record is one of being stationary after such a Saturday move and with his best stat for the week [greens in regulation] being a lowly 40th, it is clear who is playing the better golf. Perry's other opponent is Gary Nicklaus who is amazingly the favorite according to the UGS books bar Moneyplays. All this on the basis of one 2nd place finish, despite years of being a journeyman pro, quite unbelievable.

Staking plan:

Davis Love to beat Notah Begay @ -135 with GoTo, Playersbet and Enterbet

Davis Love to beat Scott Hoch @ -125 with BlueSq

Stewart Cink to beat Larry Mize @ -125 with BlueSq

Ernie Els to beat Steve Lowery @ -160 with Moneyplays, GoTo, Playersbet and Enterbet

Mark O'Meara to beat Carlos Franco @ -110 with Moneyplays

Mark O'Meara to beat Mark Wiebe @ -138 with Sportingbet

Chris Perry to beat Lee Janzen @ +100 with Canbet

Chris Perry to beat Gary Nicklaus @ -110 with Moneyplays, GoTo, Playersbet and Enterbet

3rd round update: 3-3 and +0.00 units for the day

What a waste of time & energy! The three wins came from Cink [by 5 shots], Parnevik [2 shots] and Lehman [4 shots], while at least the three losses were by closer margins: Azinger [2 shots], Begay [2 shots] and Fabel [1 shot, with a triple-bogey on his card].

The remaining 72-holers turn a turn for the worse though   Love is now 3 behind Els, Parnevik is now 1 behind Hoch, while at least Perry has pulled up level with Janzen.

Will have 4th round plays in the morning.

Picks for the 3rd round.

First is Paul Azinger to deliver another winner over Fred Funk. The wind may not be blowing, but the cold and wet conditions suit Zinger's penetrative ball flight and definitely don't suit Funk very short game. He may have fallen away badly last week with a 3rd round 77 when in a similar position, but only shows his general return to form; he still managed to finish 28th. Funk's 3rd round record is even worse. He was also in a similar position last week after 36 holes; he recorded a 78 in the 3rd round and his last five events when similarly on the fringe on contention after the cut have seen poor 3rd round scores.

A second is Notah Begay to beat Steve Lowery. The stats show that Begay had a horrible day on Thursday, but he seemed to have his game completely turned around yesterday. A winner of two events last year in his rookie year he should defy his inexperience to keep up with the leaders. For Lowery, it is a classic go-against on someone who shot the lowest score of the round on the previous day. That his last top-6 position after the cut was eleven months ago adds to the feeling that he will find it difficult to repeat yesterday's form.

Another surprisingly on the leaderboard is Frank Nobilo. But a closer look at his stats reveals that it has been his putting that has kept him in this tournament rather than solid ball-striking - 48 putts over the first 36 holes. Cink does not appear to be playing as well as he usually does, but he looks much more likely to remain in the top-10. The last time Nobilo was there at the end of the 2nd round was at the Buick Classic, June 1999. He shot 74 in the 3rd round to fall out of the top-30.

Yet another play against inexperience of being in the top-10 at this stage of the tournament is against Dan Forsman, the surprise 1st round leader. He shot 71 to fall only to 3rd, but the last time he was in the top-6 after 36 holes was at the BC Open, September 1998. He shot 76 in the 3rd round to fall 41 places. Fabel has been in this position many more times in recent times, even as close as the TPC three weeks ago. He didn't play too well in the 3rd round then, but being comfortable at this stage of the tournament will be important.

The last two plays are not on field position inexperience, but on general form. Jesper Parnevik ranks 1st in greens in regulation and 2nd in driving accuracy; the predicted suitability of his game to this type of course is holding true and comfortable being in the top-10, he should improve on his current 8th position. Huston's best stat this week is 20th in driving length which is of little importance on this course and his record when in this position after 36 holes is not particularly impressive. The last time was at the Bay Hill Classic a month ago, he shot 75 in the 3rd round.

Finally, Lehman is expected to beat Vijay Singh. We said last week that Lehman was a good 3rd round player when in contention - the problem lay in the final round - and that Singh was the same, but the opposite. So how fitting they should both again be in contention and be paired in a 3rd round matchup. They both seem to be playing well - Lehman is 1st in greens in regulation with Parnevik, while Singh is 7th - but this is about how well they play on 'movement day'.

Staking plan:

Paul Azinger to beat Fred Funk @ -110 with Moneyplays

Notah Begay to beat Steve Lowery @ +100 with GoTo, Playersbet and Enterbet

Stewart Cink to beat Frank Nobilo @ -120 with GoTo, Playersbet and Enterbet

Brad Fabel to beat Dan Forsman @ +110 with Ladbrokes

Jesper Parnevik to beat John Huston @ -105 with Moneyplays

Tom Lehman to beat Vijay Singh @ +110 with Moneyplays

2nd round update:

Win one and push one in round 2 matchups and close out two winners in the 72-hole matchups. Lehman did drop out of the top-10, but did enough to hold off Norman by one, while Tway drops four shots on his back nine it meant only a push against Roberts.

In the 72-hole matchups there were early victories for Chris Perry over Loren Roberts and Paul Azinger over Shigeki Maruyama as their opponents missed the cut. Pretty close in the other three: Love leads Els by one at the top of the leaderboard, Parnevik leads Hoch by two and Perry trails Janzen by one.

More cold, wet weather forecast for tomorrow, esp. morning. Was the Masters really only a week ago?

1st round update:

Two ahead, two level and one behind. Not too bad. Perry trails Janzen by only one and is tied with Roberts, while we were denied the lead on the Love-Els matchup when he double-bogeyed the last. Parnevik and Zinger have leads of three and two shots respectively.

As with the 1st round, there are no great plays in the matchups available, however two look favorable despite the odds. The first is Tom Lehman to beat Greg Norman. Like Davis Love, Lehman double-bogeyed the last to spoil his card, but his is still nicely placed in the top-10 and he is usually very difficult to dislodge from that position once there! His 1st round stats were excellent - on a course that demands accuracy was ranked 20th in driving accuracy [Norman was 73rd] and 2nd in greens in regulation [Norman was 10th]. Not as good as a price as we would like, but his game is certainly in top condition. He should deliver the goods today regardless of how Norman plays.

The second is Bob Tway to beat Loren Roberts. Both played in the easier morning conditions yesterday and so will play in the afternoon today when the weather forecast says there will be heavier rain. For Tway, currently in 18th position, this will be an annoyance; for Roberts, in 59th position, this will be troublesome as he faces the very real prospect of missing the cut. His game was not on song yesterday. His two strengths, driving accuracy and putting, were off-key as his stats show - 42nd in driving accuracy and 31st in putts per GIR [his highest rank of any of his 1st round stats] - and his record when in a lowly position after the 1st round is not good either. Tway on the other hand has shot two and a half shot better than the field average when he has been on the fringe of contention after 18 holes and his game appears to be far more solid. He ranked 2nd in greens hit in regulation and would have done extremely well had he not had the 11th worst number of putts on day 1. That can be remedied far easier than poor ball-striking and he should be around for the weekend; hopefully Roberts will not.

Staking plan:

Tom Lehman to beat Greg Norman @ -130 with Moneyplays or Enterbet

Bob Tway to beat Loren Roberts @ -120 with GoTo, Moneyplays or Enterbet

After the endless betting opportunities last week, the 58 matchups on offer this week appear rather limited! But there are a number that appear to be decent plays, though none for the first round alone. The first is Paul Azinger to beat Shigeki Maruyama. This is a links course and one on which the wind is a factor; as he showed in Hawaii, his low ball flight is ideal for this type of course and it is rather surprising that his recent form at Harbour Town is poor. Rejuvenated by his win in Hawaii and by a reasonable run of form - he finished 28th last week - he should do much better. This is a first visit for Maruyama to Harbour Town; too difficult for a first-timer.

A second is Jesper Parnevik to beat Scott Hoch. When it comes to the classic test of links golf - the British Open - Parnevik is an annual challenger, Hoch is an annual absentee. But at Harbour Town, Hoch has suggested that he can indeed play this type of golf: his four-year figures read 3rd, 9th, 31st and 12th last year. But he is not the player of previous years. The course compatibility table identifies greens in regulation as the key stat for this week, followed by putting average. Hoch is currently 67th in the greens in regulation stats, in previous years he has been 35th, 31st, 13th and 14th in 1996. He is currently 144th in putting average, in previous years he has been 57th, 21st, 42nd and 48th in 1996. On course form he looks good; from the reasons behind that good course form, he doesn't look so impressive anymore! Parnevik was 2nd in 1997, 18th in 1998 and got himself disqualified last year when he brushed the line of his putt with his glove. A very basic error when in a reasonable position. His stats have continued to improve - currently 3rd overall - whereas Hoch's have declined over the past few years. Looks clear-cut to me!

Chris Perry is the next tip and specifically against Lee Janzen. Perry has been playing this course since his childhood days and finally combined that with some confidence in his game to finish 4th last year. A very different player to one 18 months ago, he now ranks 1st in the course compatibility stats [Janzen is 48th] and has shown some better form of late with top-15 finishes in three of his last five events. He should make it in four in six. While Janzen does revel on tough, tight courses, he is coming off two straight missed cuts and like Hoch, his course form looks less relevant when the decline in his game is considered. He is currently 55th in the putting average stats, in previous years he has been 7th, 12th, 2nd and 6th in 1996.

Perry is also expected to beat Loren Roberts and to do so quite convincingly while being quoted as a dog. Roberts did win this event in 1996, but has done nothing in this event ever since. With him currently lying 53rd in the putting average stats, we can also see that here is another whose course form can be tempered with the ageing of his game. The 'Boss of the Moss' he is no more. The odds for this matchup appear to be a consequence of his 3rd place at the Masters last week, it won't be repeated.

The final 72-hole pick is Davis Love to beat Ernie Els. A four-time winner of this event and another who has played on this course since his early days. He is also coming off a very good 7th place at the Masters after an opening 75, so his two-year winning duck looks more likely to be broken this week than any other. For Els, the trauma of being so close last week may have an effect on him this week, but this is a course on which he has shown no form in recent years anyway. Doesn't look like a winner.

Staking plan:

Paul Azinger to beat Shigeki Maruyama @ -110 with Sportsinteraction

Jesper Parnevik to beat Scott Hoch @ -130 with Olympic

Chris Perry to beat Lee Janzen @ -135 with Victor Chandler

Chris Perry to beat Loren Roberts @ +115 with Intertops

Davis Love to beat Ernie Els @ +100 with Moneyplays

The MCI Classic

After the manufactured splendor of Augusta, it is time for a true seaside links. Much narrower fairways than last week and the smallest greens the pros experience all season represent quite a change from the Masters. With an emphasis on accuracy, particularly in hitting the tiny greens and this can be seen from the 1st course compatibility table, this is no course for the big hitters. The fact that there are only three par-5s adds to the downplaying of length and the collectively the four par-3s are the toughest on Tour; this is where much of the title race will be decided. In another change from last week, we are back on Bermuda greens. Such week-to-week changes would appear to not be very enticing, but the players are unanimous in their praise of the set-up and barring any late withdrawals after the stresses of Augusta, this is a top-class field.

Locals and those with an impressive course history figure highly in the Tour-Tips ratings. On top is Davis Love who is a four-time winner here and has been playing the course since the age of thirteen. Back problems forced a 3rd round withdrawal last year; barring a repeat of any such injury trouble, he cannot be ignored. Another who has played this course since his childhood days is Chris Perry; last year he was 4th.

Particularly impressive course form can be found with Nick Price who won this event in 1997 and Jesper Parnevik who was identified last week as a better player of British Open-style links courses. Barring the elementary rules infringement last year which resulted in his disqualification, his record at this course is excellent.

There's my early thoughts on who to look for; will add matchup plays over the next two days.