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Final update: 2-6 and -4.00 units for the day; 10-14-1 and -4.54 units for the week
3rd round update: Yes! Got back those horrible four 2nd round losses with a 5-1 day
Phil Mickelson to beat Fred Couples. After being one of the earliest out yesterday, his 70 jumped him way up the leaderboard, but it is still not enough to put him in with any chance of victory and he was rather fortunate with the conditions that was playing in despite the thunder delay. May get into the top-10 but can't see a sub-70 round to do any more than that. For Lefty, i is completely different, he is in 5th place and only three shots behind 2nd place, assuming that Singh will falter. When in contention for the lead on a Sunday he normally does well; when he is on the fringes of it and tries too hard, that is when he doesn't do too well. Don't expect a collapse, but a real challenge and a winner for the matchup. David Duval to beat Vijay Singh. How they can make Singh a heavy favorite I just don't know. He has a three-shot lead over his playing partner who, apart from Tiger, is probably the worst opponent you can have in a head-to-head when in form. It translates to steering the ball and defensive golf, which for Vijay normally means wayward driving. As long as Duval doesn't become wayward off the tee and keeps the pressure on Vijay, this is a must. Can't believe those odds! Steve Jones to beat Greg Norman. What a price! Double picked Jones last Sunday and he rain washed out those picks, but then I highlighted the resurgence of his form and he has continued that this week, a 76 playing in the worst of the conditions yesterday is no sign of weakness in his game. It has left him with too much to do, but at only five shots behind 2nd place, he can really put himself back on the pro golf map this week. He has the form and the experience to do it. So has Norman, but like Couples his 70 was not that spectacular for the early morning players, it was how the rest of the day turned out that propelled him up the leaderboard. Will certainly give Jones a good run for our money, but the odds are way out of line on this one. Nick Price to beat Sergio Garcia. Price is playing with Sergio today which will be good for both of them. After his comments last year about the youngster needing to refine his swing and the youngster's impolite comments about the course at Sun City, in Price's homeland, this pairing will have some spice to it and it will help to channel their golf. For Price, with his experience, it should produce a low score; for Sergio, with his oft-seen fiery temperament, he could just as easily shoot 66 as 76, it depends how frustrated he gets. And against the ice-cool Price it is hard to see him keeping a lid on it for the full 18 holes. Nick Price to beat Tom Lehman. Price is expected to make a move today, he usually does when on the fringes of contention on the last day of a Major. Lehman's head is expected to drop slightly after yesterday's failure to maintain ground let alone make ground on the leaders. For two days he was playing the best golf on the course, his record of catching up with the leaders, rather than staying with them, is not that great. Don't expect to see it today. Jesper Parnevik to beat Greg Norman. Have already predicted that Norman will neither collapse nor make a charge today; he is rather fortunate to be as high as he is right now. But Parnevik did make a charge yesterday, at least early on when he four-under-par for the round, but closed with a 70 like Norman after double-bogeying the 11th. His record when on the fringes of contention and when making such large jumps up the leaderboard the previous day suggests another move will be made today. At even money, the younger man looks a decent play. Mike Weir to beat Loren Roberts. The Canadian may be a rookie at Augusta, but
this is not the first time he has impressed when new to a course. Don't think he
will yet have the nerve to win if the opportunity presented itself to him, but
he is a much more frequent late Sunday player than Roberts. He may have
experience, but the last time he played in the final three groups on Sunday was
at the NCR Classic last October; he shot 78. This was available @ +105 with
Carib, but only Bowmans have this matchup still open now Jeff Sluman to beat David Toms. Going off in ten minutes so will just summarize it as silly price for one who should be the marginal favorite in this two-ball pairing. Experience of being in top-10 in a Major, even with little chance of victory will see Sluman home. Staking plan: Phil Mickelson to beat Fred Couples @ -115 with the UGS books David Duval to beat Vijay Singh @ +110 with GoTo, Playersbet and Sportbet Steve Jones to beat Greg Norman @ +140 with GoTo, Playersbet and Sportbet Nick Price to beat Sergio Garcia @ -105 with GoTo, Playersbet and Sportbet Nick Price to beat Tom Lehman @ +100 with Sportingbet, BlueSq and Ladbrokes Jesper Parnevik to beat Greg Norman @ +100 with BlueSq and Ladbrokes Mike Weir to beat Loren Roberts @ -110 with Bowmans Jeff Sluman to beat David Toms @ +125 with BlueSq
2nd round update: Horrible 0-4 yesterday. Not even worth comment
Going with six more today, so it's a double-digit loss this week or some face-saving! The first is David Duval to beat Vijay Singh. Two players out of form before this tournament began and now they are first and second! But at least Duval has a good course history here - 2nd and 6th in the last two years. This play would probably be different tomorrow but for today, Duval is a good front-runner and capitulating under the pressure of leading a Major is not something I would expect on him on a Saturday. He doesn't have a particularly good 3rd round scoring average, but Vijay's is shocking - currently 110th in this year's stats and I went back as far as four years and he had an extremely poor 3rd round scoring average every year. The same cannot be said for Lehman; his problem has been finishing the tournament on a Sunday! But when in contention, as he showed two weeks ago he is very solid on the Saturday. Currently 1st in greens in regulation for this tournament, he is expected to maintain his top-5 spot, while Leonard's game may have showed some sign of improvement yesterday, it is still dependent on scrambling to achieve his current 12th place spot. No basis for a serious challenge for the tournament. A third is Loren Roberts to beat Rocco Mediate. These are two players who definitely don't 'bounce-back'. They follow good round with good round and bad with bad - see leaderboard change table for stats. Yesterday Roberts jumped fifteen places to a top-10 position and his experience will hold him in good stead; Mediate dropped 19 places to 24th and his lack of experience will prevent him from reversing that decline in a Major. Experience of Majors is obviously something that Jack Nicklaus
has over all his opponents and after yesterday's round there were hopes he could
repeat his 1998 finish of 6th here. The turn of the weather for the worse seems
to have extinguished that hope. His hip injury which kept him out of last year's
Masters will be too problematic in these conditions and so he is opposed by two
Europeans, Colin Montgomerie and Ian Woosnam who also have a great deal of
experience and Woosie is a past champion here. Can't see either of them
collapsing today, so sorry Jack, can't root for you today Finally, Mike Weir is tipped to beat Jumbo Ozaki whose difficulties in playing outside Japan are well-documented and a third consecutive missed cut here was widely predicted. He wrong-footed many with a top-10 position after 18 holes, but has since slipped back into the pack and with motivation not being something he is renowned far, a further slippage is expected. For a course rookie Weir did well to make the cut and motivation will certainly be central to his game today as he looks to soak up the experience at this unique event. Staking plan: David Duval to beat Vijay Singh @ +100 with Moneyplays Tom Lehman to beat Justin Leonard @ +105 with Moneyplays Loren Roberts to beat Rocco Mediate @ -115 with any of the UGS books Colin Montgomerie to beat Jack Nicklaus @ -115 with Island Casino or Sportbet Ian Woosnam to beat Jack Nicklaus @ -115 with any of the UGS books Mike Weir to beat Jumbo Ozaki @ -124 with Canbet
Adding one prop for the 2nd round: Forecast is for some wind today, 15-25mph, and with it being warm as well it could make things rather tough this afternoon. So will play Olympic's 'score to make the cut' at over 150.5 @ -105. Remember there's the 10-shot rule as well so if the leader is no better than -3 after the 2nd round, it's a winner no matter what everyone else does.
1st round update: Plenty of surprises on day one, but this is a Major, provided the cut is negotiated, cream will always rise to the top! That might be a little too much for Carlos Franco who lies in 78th place when there it is only the top-44 plus ties that qualify for the weekend, but at least anyone within ten shots of the leader will also qualify. So as long as he breaks par tomorrow, he should stand a decent chance of redeeming himself! He lies five shots behind David Toms. Another lagging behind the leading pack is Jesper Parnevik who
shot 77; but it is enough to lead Greg Norman by three and be tied with Lee
Westwood. In fact, all the picks bar Jim Furyk had disappointing rounds, but
maybe the plays were as much against their opponents as plays on them
Three matchups for the 2nd round. The first is a re-commitment to Jim Furyk's game. Bogeys at 17 and 18 spoiled an otherwise good card and his 1st round stats show his game to be in reasonable state: 8th in fairways hit and 18th in greens hit in regulation. Not so for his opponent, Justin Leonard: 55th in fairways hit and 71st in greens hit. The putting stats on the Masters site are misleading as they are gross putting stats, not the preferred putts per GIR; i.e. they will look good if a player is always missing the green and chipping to the flag. In terms of recalculating their data to give 'putting average' stats, Leonard was 2.00 putts per GIR and Furyk was 2.08 putts per GIR. Not much difference, but it shows where Furyk could very easily improve on his 1st round, whereas Leonard difficulties in striking the ball will make it much harder for him to improve on his 1st round. Furyk to be sub-par, Leonard to scramble it round again. The high quality of golf is evident from the stats for the Sutton-Lehman matchup. In the first round, Sutton hit 14 of 18 greens in regulation, while Lehman hit 15. As would be expected Sutton hit more fairways, but their play was excellent and defies the notion that Sutton cannot play this course. His mental toughness, so evident since the Ryder Cup, and the tightening of the fairways make him a real challenger for this title. Much will depend on how many greens he hits in regulation for his chipping is definitely a weakness, but currently in 10th place he is in an ideal position for this stage of the tournament. For Lehman, the double-bogey at the last to drop him to 2nd place is expected to rankle him overnight and if Paulson, who also has an early start but is three groups ahead, has the expected difficult start, he could soon be the tournament leader and that only induces defensive golf. Finally, I'm opposing another whose finish may have been somewhat irritating. Greg Norman closed out the last three holes in four-over-par for a back-nine of 43! From looking solid, he looks to have a mountain to climb to make the cut; he is already twelve shots behind the leader and I can't see there being much fire in Norman's game tomorrow unless he has an electric start. But when he's hitting only 7 of 18 greens in regulation, there is no way he turn that round in less than a day. Olly did much better than many expected; hitting 14 of 18 greens is excellent, but hitting 9 of 14 fairways is remarkable! He lies in 10th place and if there is any semblance of a return of confidence in his driver, then he can surely improve on this position. It would be another remarkable turnaround in his career. It may not happen, but there will be a spark in him and his game tomorrow, there won't be in Norman's. Staking plan: Jim Furyk to beat Justin Leonard @ -125 with Carib Hal Sutton to beat Tom Lehman @ +100 with GoTo, Island Casino, Sportbet, Enterbet or IBet Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Greg Norman @ +120 with Island Casino, Sportbet, Enterbet or IBet
The most anticipated event of the year and server & computer problems throw all my preparations into chaos! But here we are, set for four stunning days of golf on a course is as infuriating as beautiful and on which every form book can be thrown out of the window. Apart from this one of course! Naturally, every one is on Tiger to win and by every angle possible, he should win this one. Attempts may have been made to make the course 'Tiger-proof', but that view only looked at his awesome length and not his whole game which has become to the fore in the past six months. For an indication of the anti-Tiger measures that were effected after his runaway victory look at the top Course Compatibility table, length off the tee has become less important since 1997, whereas being a good putter is as important as on any course on the Tour. That is not surprising, with super-fast undulating greens in which three- and four-putts are common place, deftness on and around the greens will be central. In that area, Tiger is no slouch, though having the extra length off the tee does make hitting the approach shots to the 'right' side of the pin much easier! It is no surprise then, that Tiger is ranked 1st in the Tour-Tips ratings by a merry mile. The distant second is new steely Jim Furyk. To refute the theory that length is all-important at Augusta, Furyk has been top-30 in all four visits and suffered a cruel break late on Sunday 1998 to fall to 4th. He did collapse over the weekend at the TPC, but that will have been forgotten and he looks a decent e/w proposition. For now though I am content to oppose him in a matchup with Tom Lehman whose recent course form has shown little to suggest a re-run of his 2nd place in 1994. Was very disappointing when in a good Sunday position for the TPC. Another who disappointed at the TPC was Jesper Parnevik, but he had shown very good prior form and his record in Major tournaments is very good. He will probably achieve a top-10 finish at best though, his game is far more suited to the links courses of the British Open than Augusta. That sort of finish should be ample to beat his two chosen opponents, Greg Norman and Lee Westwood. Last year's 3rd place finish for Norman was a sign that he had finally put behind him his Masters defeat to Nick Faldo in 1996, but it proved to be as much a flash in the pan and Olly's victory. Difficult to see him finishing any higher than 20th. For Westwood, it is still a case of unfulfilled potential. Finished 6th last year and has won on the PGA Tour, but outside of Europe and Japan he has all too often disappointed and if still suffering from food poisoning, it could be another fruitless venture. I am also opposing Westwood with Colin Montgomerie. His natural fade is the wrong shot for Augusta, but like Parnevik, natural ability will get him around Augusta in a decent score. Has finished 8th and 11th the past two years and that again looks the order of the day; much will depend on his brittle putting technique. Which brings us to Bernhard Langer. Surprisingly he is currently 1st in the European Tour putting stats, but he will need all of his suspect touch on the greens to keep up his phenomenal record at Augusta which includes 16 cuts made from 17 visits. But his game is definitely showing signs of ageing and while he should make the cut yet again, it is difficult to see him in contention this week. He is expected to be beaten by Stewart Cink whose 10th place finish in the shortened BellSouth Classic made it three top-10 finishes from four and with two top-30 finishes in his last two attempts at Augusta, he certainly looks like one for whom a midfield position is the worst he should do. One final play is on Joe Ozaki over Retief Goosen. This may be the first time at Augusta for Joe, but he on the evidence of his performances on Tour this season he looks a much better bet to make the cut than both Jumbo and Retief Goosen. For all that the South African is impressive on the European Tour, he has failed miserably on the PGA Tour. He is coming off three successive missed cuts and a missed cut in his other visit to this course in 1998. With putting the weakest part of his game, it is hard to see a break from the past. Staking plan: Stewart Cink to beat Bernhard Langer @ -120 with Moneyplays or Enterbet Carlos Franco to beat David Toms @ -111 with Ladbrokes or Sportsinteraction Jim Furyk to beat Tom Lehman @ +105 with the Starnet books Joe Ozaki to beat Retief Goosen @ -111 with Sportingbet Colin Montgomerie to beat Lee Westwood @ -120 with SOS Jesper Parnevik to beat Lee Westwood @ +100 with William Hill Jesper Parnevik to beat Greg Norman @ -118 with CRIS or Millennium
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The only loser was Duval who trailed Singh by four, but everyone else won with
several to spare. The 72-hole matchups are fairly close, and pretty much
breaking even. So it's left to Sunday to make it a winning week. So here goes: