Memorial Tournament

Earlier this year it was Arnie who was sending out the personal invitations to his tournament; this week it's Jack's turn. A much smaller than average field, including some of the leading amateurs in the game, have assembled to tackle Muirfield Village, a course never out of the top-20 "greatest courses "and based heavily on the Augusta National. The type of player on such a course is clear from the course compatibility figures: driving distance is twice as important as driving accuracy in explaining finishing positions over the past three years. Nicklaus has said about his course: “golf to me is a game of precision more than power, and I think this course reflects that". The stats suggest otherwise as does the roll-call of recent winners: Woods (1999), Couples (1998), Singh (1997).

At over 7100 yards and recently extended by a further 30 yards, the recent wet weather will make this course play longer and suit length over accuracy even more.  The tournament has a history of weather delays, largely because of its geographic location; when Singh won in ‘97, the event was reduced to three rounds, and it took five days to play them! A mitigating factor is that though the fairways look inviting, they have recently been narrowed and the penalties for missing them are severe. The par fours are, collectively, the toughest on tour. The smallish greens are Bentgrass, undulating, and in dry conditions, very, very fast. The parallels with Augusta are clear.

The top-3 in the Tour-Tips rankings are, ignoring Tiger who presents no value and again last week failed to defend a pro title, Duval, Singh and Lehman. Duval's record in this tournament is exceptional - 2nd, 2nd, 17th, 3rd & 3rd - during which time he has been 53 under par around this course. On a course in which his putting frailties should be of lesser importance, if he is over last week's illness, this could be yet another week when he should re-find his game. Singh won this event in 1997 and was 2nd last year and like Duval is predominantly a ball-striker who is more suited to this type of course than the tight par-70s of the past few weeks. The third player to look for is Tom Lehman. A past winner in 1994, he has recorded 21 of 29 rounds under par around this course and should be fresh from a mid-season break. In a tournament which does not have shock winners, they are all available at double-digit prices with Tiger in the field, which makes each-way betting an attractive proposition.

Will post matchup plays tomorrow.

72-hole plays:

Vijay Singh to beat John Huston -118 @ CRIS
Huston a much better putter on Bermuda greens, despite being the course record holder here, he has been nowhere near repeating that 61 of four years ago. Course specialist Singh will be too strong

Fred Couples to beat Bob Estes -115 @ Olympic
Last three finishes here have been 59th, 1st, 4th & 3rd for Freddie; Estes have never been in the top-40 in five attempts

Fred Couples to beat Mark O'Meara -140 @ Carib or Premiere League
Despite a 3rd place finish in 1996, this is not a course to suit O'Meara's game even when he can find it

David Duval to beat Tiger Woods +290 @ Five Dimes
The trip to Germany will have an effect on Tiger, physically from the transatlantic flights and psychologically from his continued failure to defend a title and his lackluster display in the 4th round. Unreal odds, but much will also depend on Duval's putter.

Will be back later with 1st round plays

Adding two more 72-hole plays:

Robert Damron to beat Duffy Waldorf -120 @ Olympic
21st and 11th in two visits here for Damron with current reasonable should be too much for Duffy whose 59th place last week for the first weekend golf he's played in over two months

Carlos Franco to beat Justin Leonard -130 @ Moneyplays
Last week's tight par-70 not suited to Franco's game; previously four tournaments he was top-15 and was 3rd here on debut last year. Against a struggling Leonard, this looks good

1st round plays:

David Duval to beat Tiger Woods +175 @ Five Dimes
As above, hopefully the fatigue will be strongest on day one

Scott Hoch to beat Bob Estes +105 @ GoTo or Moneyplays
Very unpredictable Hoch - two missed cuts and three top-15 positions in last five events; 4th and missed cut in last two visits - but Estes still worth opposing at these odds

Carlos Franco to beat Justin Leonard -110 @ Five Dimes
As above and at a better price and tee-time

Vijay Singh to beat John Huston -115 @ Five Dimes
As above and better tee-time

1st round update: 0-4 and -4.25 units

What a disastrous first day! And only Vijay lost by a single shot. A mountain to climb and the 72-hole plays don't appear to be helping any either; only Damron is level with his opponent, everyone else is losing! Singh by one, Couples by one to O'Meara and three to Estes, Duval by two and Franco by three. Just as well it's a reduced field and everyone should have three rounds to make up for yesterday's performance.

2nd round plays:

John Huston to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Enterbet, Island Casino & Sportbet
Not many players better than Huston when in the 'zone', don't expect him to fall away today despite what I wrote two days ago! Beem too inexperienced at this level of competition despite being a Tour winner last year

Stewart Cink to beat Mike Weir -120 @ Five Dimes
Both has something to prove after yesterday; Cink has a much better record of 2nd round saves. Needs one today

Vijay Singh to beat Gary Nicklaus -135 @ Enterbet, Island Casino & Sportbet
You won't often see these two paired in a matchup, got to take advantage while it lasts!

2nd round update: 0-3 and -3.80 units

Hmmm, 0-7 on this tournament so far. Definitely not worth comment!!!

3rd round plays:

Mike Weir to beat Olin Browne +105 @ Moneyplays

Justin Leonard to beat Gary Nicklaus +100 @ Moneyplays

Bill Glasson to beat Olin Browne @ -125 @ Bowmans

Mike Weir to beat Justin Leonard +105 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-2 and -0.20 units

A winner at last! Was leading in all four until Leonard holed in one at the eighth, but after the last two days, happy for two winners! Weir beat Browne by four, but lost by two to Leonard, who in turn beat Nicklaus by eight. Glasson lost by one. Up in four of six 72-hole plays, just Duval and Franco losing, but by insurmountable margins.

4th round plays:

David Duval to beat Fred Couples +110 @ GoTo or Playersbet

David Duval to beat Hal Sutton +105 @ GoTo or Playersbet

Steve Flesch to beat Brad Elder -125 @ Victor Chandler

Jim Furyk to beat Rocco Mediate -125 @ Victor Chandler or Ladbrokes

Kenny Perry to beat J.P. Hayes -125 @ Victor Chandler, William Hill or Ladbrokes

Hal Sutton to beat Greg Kraft -120 @ GoTo or Playersbet

Vijay Singh to beat Mike Weir -105 @ GoTo or Playersbet

Winning Margin < 7.5 shots +105 @ Carib

Final update: 3-5 and -2.50 units for the day; 9-16-0 and -9.05 units for the week

Flesch, Sutton and the winning margin props are the only winners on the delayed final round. Of the six 72-hole plays, four were winners - Duval and Franco the losers - which is the only bright side on an otherwise exasperating event!

At least with the Monday finish the next event comes around very quick