Michelob Championship

Formerly known as the Anheuser Busch Golf Classic, this event was moved forward from July to September in 1997 and length has since played a more important role than accuracy since. The classic examples have been David Duval who moved his career to a new level in this tournament in 1997 when it was the first of three consecutive victories and then followed it with victory here again in 1998 and 8th in 1999 and Barry Cheesman whose length has been instrumental in his 3rd [1998] and 4th [1999] place finishes here. This would appear strange on a course measuring just 6,800 yards and with just 3 par-fives, reachable for most, but good and powerful ball-strikers have prospered more than most on this course in September.

The greens see a return to Bentgrass surfaces this week, so players who have competed in both the last two tournaments on the Bermuda strain may find the transition a little harder, but with the greens being particularly small this week, it will be not that decisive a factor. Notable players who have very good long-term records on this course are Ted Tryba [average 69.50 from 26 rounds], Scott Hoch [69.52 from 70 rounds], Scott Verplank [69.64 from 26 rounds] and Curtis Strange [70.09 from 77 rounds, despite an opening 82 last year]. Curtis Strange is particularly noteworthy in that he actually lives on the course and has his own equivalent to Arnie's Army, "Strange's Navy", which is almost as bad as "Funk's Punks"!

The top-ranked this week is David Duval and by a merry mile. His record on this course is exemplary - he is yet to record a round over par at Kingsmill - and it was an extremely impressive recovery from injury last week. There can be no doubts about his freshness and in a somewhat lackluster field he is certainly worth the 5/1 currently on offer. A second player to watch is Scott Hoch. Naturally, this would be an e/w play rather to win outright   but he has finished 2nd and 5th in his last two tournaments and has a great record in this event, be it in July or September: he is a former winner of this tournament and has not finished worse than 24th here since 1992.

Will wait until tee-times are known until making final choices, but two more players are worthy of note this week as well; Scott Verplank and Robert Allenby. Verplank's long-term record has already been mentioned and now that his long-term health problems have been successfully addressed, which have resulted in a series of top-10 finishes recently, he again looks good for a place finish. Robert Allenby's record on this course is also impressive - 17th and 13th in the last two years - and has two wins already this term and the best stats bar Duval in this field. With inflated odds on them both because of Duval's return to form, the place finish could be a payout. Still think Duval will win this at will.

Back tomorrow with final outright and matchup plays.

No changes to the outright plays after the announcement of the tee-times, but still can't split Allenby and Verplank so going with four plays this week:

David Duval to win outright 6/1 @ Olympic

Scott Hoch to win e/w 33/1 Paddy Power

Robert Allenby to win e/w 40/1 Sportingbet

Scott Verplank to win e/w 40/1 Paddy Power

72-hole plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Notah Begay +105 @ WSEX  [same odds @ Intertops]
He may be defending champion, but Begay has not been too impressive of late. Expecting another good return to Kingsmill for Hoch

Brian Watts to beat Michael Clark -111 @ Paddy Power
Recent signs of improvement for Watts - 26th, 18th & 9th in last month - together with 8th last year, suggest he may be a sleeper this week. Worth opposing Clark who has three missed cuts in last four weeks

David Duval to beat Jim Furyk -160 @ Canbet [2 units]
Short odds, but Duval should be top of the pile this week. Furyk has played only once in the last month and missed the cut; he does not have a particularly good record here either

David Duval to beat Scott Hoch -167 @ DAS
My 1st-ranked player against my 2nd-ranked player. At this price, it shows just how far ahead of the field I rate Duval this week!

Lee Janzen to beat Mark O'Meara -115 @ WSEX  [same odds @ Intertops & Canbet]
A regular visitor to this event, Janzen has 11th and 13th place finishes in the last three years. O'Meara hasn't been here since 1991, there must be good reason

Jeff Sluman to beat Steve Pate -115 @ Olympic
Top-15 five times in his last eight visits for Sluman suggests he likes this place; nothing much in Pate's game to suggest a better performance this week

Loren Roberts to beat Mike Weir -125 @ SportingbetUSA
Big difference in form between these two. In last two months, Roberts has averaged almost 1 1/2 shots less per round than Weir

Grant Waite to beat Rory Sabbatini -110 @ SportingbetUSA
Sabbatini trailed home last last year, while Waite was 2nd in a playoff in 1997. With Waite ranked 6th in greens in regulation in this week's field and Sabbatini 120th, a similar margin may well be repeated

1st round plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Notah Begay +115 @ Five Dimes  [same odds @ Island Casino & GetaBet]

Danny Briggs to beat John Rollins -111 @ DAS

Mark O'Meara to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ DAS

1st round update: 2-1 and +1.04 units

Two good wins and a narrow loss. Hoch defeated Begay by six and Briggs defeated Rollins by three, while two-shot swing on last hole turned sweep into loss as O'Meara finished one shot behind Faxon.

72-hole plays very much in the balance, in short: Hoch/Begay 6 up; Watts/Clark 3 down; Duval/Furyk 1 down; Duval/Hoch all square; Janzen/O'Meara 1 down; Sluman/Pate 5 down; Roberts/Weir 1 up and Weir/Sabbatini 4 up.

Back in the morning with 2nd round plays

2nd round plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Notah Begay -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Scott Verplank to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Frank Lickliter to beat Robert Damron +100 @ Island Casino [2 units]  [same odds @ Sportbet]

Lee Janzen to beat Mark O'Meara -125 @ Five Dimes

Loren Roberts to beat Bob Tway -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ Island Casino, Sportbet & On-Line Casino]

Grant Waite to beat Rory Sabbatini -125 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 6-0-0 and +12.00 units

SWEEP!!! It doesn't much more enjoyable than this   Six-play sweep in the Michelob and two-play sweep in the Cisco Matchplay. The six selections were a combined sixteen-under-par; the six opponents level par. The results: Hoch beat Begay by one; Verplank beat Begay by three; Lickliter beat Damron by one; Janzen beat O'Meara by six; Roberts beat Tway by four; and Waite beat Sabbatini by one. A few close ones, but they average out over the season and I was due a few

Five of the eight 72-hole plays were decided at the cut with 3 winners and 2 losses. Hoch beat Begay by seven, Janzen beat O'Meara by five and Waite beat Sabbatini by five. On the other hand, Watts withdrew during the 2nd round when well behind Clark and Sluman was a distant ten-shot loser to Pate. The three remaining 72-hole plays are all ahead though: Duval by two over Furyk and five over Hoch, with Roberts one ahead of Weir.

Back in the morning with 3rd round plays.

Not too many I like today, but hopeful of a couple more if the Euro books have decent lines on the two-balls pairings. The 3rd round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat John Cook +105 @ Five Dimes

David Duval to beat Loren Roberts -130 @ Sportfanatik and the Starnet books

Kevin Sutherland to beat David Frost -130 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-1 and +1.00 units

Expect a bounce-back after a sweep, so happy with a cautious profit today. Allenby was a distant five-shot loser to Cook, but Duval held on to beat Roberts by one and Sutherland was bad, but not quite as bad as Frost - he won by two shots. Still ahead in the three live 72-hole plays: Duval by two over Furyk and six over Hoch, while Roberts leads Weir by two.

With a leaderboard short of experience, Duval looks very good to make it three consecutive winners on the PGA Tour, but it will not be a very profitable week on the outrights. Allenby is down and out in 63rd place, as is Hoch who is five shots outside a place finish. The only hope beyond Duval is Verplank who lies in 20th place, three shots outside a place finish, but it would still take a special round tomorrow.

Back in the morning with 4th round thoughts.

4th round plays:

David Duval to beat Steve Flesch -150 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

David Duval to beat David Toms -135 @ Sportfanatik and the other starnet books [2 units]

Paul Azinger to beat Bob Tway -115 @ Olympic  [continuation play; one shot behind]

Chris Riley to beat Frank Lickliter -105 @ Olympic

Final update: 0-4-0 and -7.90 units; 13-10-1 and +4.01 units for the week

Yikes! Murphy's Law always suggests you should be careful after a great day, but today was quite a reversal. All of today's four plays lost heavily and of the three remaining 72-hole plays which started the day ahead, two lost and one pushed

Today's roll-call: Duval lost by four to Flesch and by nine to Toms, Azinger lost by four to Tway and Riley lost by three to Lickliter. The 72-hole plays finished: Duval and Furyk tied, Duval lost to Hoch by three and Roberts lost to Weir by eight

Update on the outright plays: 0-4 and -4.00 units

Thought Duval would win and he finished in 19th place, Hoch had a great Sunday but was one shot out of a place finish, while Verplank (36th) and Allenby (62nd) were more distant. Was a great week, but a net gain of 0.01 units on the PGA Tour was unthinkable 24 hours ago!