Greater Milwaukee Open

The week before a "Major" and the effect on the field is obvious. Even the JP McManus pro-am in Limerick, Ireland has a stronger field than this event - Woods, Duval, Allenby, Appleby, Janzen, O'Meara and others tee it up in with the hackers instead of this event. The primary pro golf event takes place at Loch Lomond this week where, despite Lee Westwood's late withdrawal, five of the world's top-10 will tee it up. This week's field include a highest ranking of #19 in Carlos Franco. There will be less matchups on offer this week than usual, but for the rewards for homework on those less familiar faces will be all the greater

The course, Brown Deer Park, is unusually short for a Tour event, just over 6,700 yards and is also unusual in that it only has nine par-fours. Basically, despite this being a tree-lined course, it has played rather easy with twenty-under-par being the winning score last year. This is more of a target course than a power course and with limited length, prowess with the driver is relatively unimportant compared with hitting the greens in regulation and holing the putts. That said, eleven inches of rain fell on Brown Deer Park in May and it was closed for play in June because of the wet weather. Course superintendent Steve Bailey has remarked on the effect of the wet weather on the rough: "It's so lush and thick, I don't know how they are going to get out of it." Maybe a little more than in recent years, the penalties for the errant drive will be serious.

The top-ranked player this week is Chris Perry who has finished 3rd and 6th in the last two years here. The best player in the field in the main stat categories and with some steady recent performances behind him, he does stand out from this very gray field. While he still finds it difficult to finish the job from a winning position, he would have been a strong favorite had this been twelve months ago. That it is not will ensure a decent e/w price when others are being passed over - Franco, Roberts, Calcavecchia & Hoch - because of their odds. One player who is not passed over despite having a relatively low ranking because of indifferent current form is Steve Stricker. Again favourable odds should be secured for this Wisconsin-born player who regards this event as his "5th Major". With finishes of 3rd, 12th, 2nd and 10th in the last four years and not a single round over par, it is clear that he makes the extra effort for this event.

The dark horse for the week is Fred Funk who is an obvious choice on a relatively tight course with punitive rough. His recent form has also been indifferent, but he was 20th last week and his last three visits here have yielded finishes of 9th, 26th and 7th with every round under par. He should be available at 40/1 at least, but will wait on final outright plays until all the e/w books have published their lines.

The pay-out on the first five rather than first four places is a good reason to take the e/w offers at Victor Chandler. They have Stricker 16/1, Perry 20/1 and Funk 40/1 which are satisfactory.

The early matchup plays are the following:

Fred Funk to beat Jerry Kelly +130 @ Bowmans [3 units]
Kelly is a Wisconsin native with very impressive finishes of 2nd, 8th, 57th and 3rd in the last four years here, hence the price. But his recent form has been poor and with there being less of an emphasis on putting this week, Funk should have the edge as well as a great price

Skip Kendall to beat Jerry Kelly -105 @ Sportodds
Three top-25 finishes in the past three years for Kendall, including 6th last year, shows that yet another Wisconsin-born player performs well in this event. Better recent form and better than Kelly in all the major stats other than driving distance, Kendall is another who should push for a top-10 finish

Chris Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Intertops [3 units]
Bit of repetition here, but partly a result of the lack of imagination of the part of the linemakers. Top-ranked Perry should surpass both Funk and Kendall, which means hopefully he should also surpass Kelly

Greg Kraft to beat Dave Stockton -111 @ Ladbrokes
No course form for either player, but Kraft was an impressive 3rd place last week. Playing with the knowledge that his card is now all but secured for next year, he should build on last week's success

Craig Stadler to beat Brian Watts -110 @ Bowmans
Definitely not one for the weekend! Missed cuts galore for both players of late, particularly for Watts, and with neither player have played this course before, expect this one to be settled on Friday. On a tight target course, every reason to oppose Watts who is ranked 117th in the field in greens in regulation [Stadler 30th] and 108th in putting [Stadler 25th]

One withdrawal from the event so far:

Billy Mayfair

Will add to the list as I hear of them

Adding:

Fulton Allem
Chip Beck
Rich Beem
Ken Green

Adding:

Harrison Frazar to beat Olin Browne +100 @ Easybets
Purely on the each player's stats, Frazar has a huge advantage overall and with Browne having virtually the worst putting stats of the whole field, it could be a decisive disadvantage this week

Fred Funk to beat Frank Lickliter +110 @ WSEX [2 units]
Apart from finishing 9th last week, but very little good golf from Lickliter of late; same at Brown Deer Park in past two years so decent odds like this cannot be passed over

Skip Kendall to beat Steve Pate -111 @ Ladbrokes
Infrequent visitor to this event in past five years is not encouraging for Pate, so with form very erratic at the moment looks a good opportunity to back another home-state player

Greg Kraft to beat Dave Stockton -111 @ Ladbrokes
Adding another unit now that tee-times are known

Adding one more 72-hole play:

Chris Perry to beat Robert Damron -125 @ Victor Chandler [3 units]
Only three rounds from eight under par on this easy course is very unimpressive for Damron. May be a great putter but doesn't hit the green in regulation enough to make a difference to any leaderboard. Top pick to triumph

1st round plays

Now I haven't changed my criteria and thresholds for golf wagering since the start of the year, but I have been finding that in the past month or so a great deal more matchups have been meeting my minimum wagering thresholds than previously. I don't know why   Now Five Dimes have started releasing over a very wide range of matchups so there is more choice and therefore more plays, but today I find myself liking at least half of the matchups available!!   I like to spread risk over more than a couple of plays, but this is entirely unintended. The plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Mark Calcavecchia -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Mark Calcavecchia -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Steve Stricker to beat Mark Calcavecchia -110 @ Five Dimes

Robert Damron to beat Franklin Langham +115 @ Playersbet [3 units]  [same odds @ Enterbet]

Carlos Franco to beat Kenny Perry -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Greg Kraft to beat Harrison Frazar -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]  [same odds @ Moneyplays]

Andrew Magee to beat Harrison Frazar -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Fred Funk to beat Jerry Kelly -105 @ Five Dimes

Skip Kendall to beat Bill Glasson -115 @ Five Dimes

Loren Roberts to beat Bill Glasson -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Omar Uresti to beat Nolan Henke -145 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Steve Pate to beat Franklin Langham -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Carl Paulson to beat John Maginnes -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Craig Stadler to beat Brian Watts -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

1st round update: 5-8-2 and -7.40 units

Geez! What a week for my 1st-round approach to back-fire! Could have happened when there are the usual half-dozen matchups Having seen the pictures, I can't see where the fairways had been narrowed so whether the rough was thick or not didn't make that much difference. It's officially a putting contest and that's not what I had capped for, as the state of my 72-hole plays will testify. Poor week so far, but at least there's plenty of time to make it up

The 1st-round results: Hoch/Calcavecchia all square; Perry/Calcavecchia one up; Stricker/Calcavecchia two down; Damron/Langham five down; Franco/Perry two down; Kraft/Frazar one up; Magee/Frazar all square; Funk/Kelly six down; Kendall/Glasson two down; Roberts/Glasson two up; Uresti/Henke four up; Perry/Kelly one down; Pate/Langham four down; Paulson/Maginnes one down; Stadler/Watts two up.

72-hole plays currently standing at a poor 3-6-0: Funk/Kelly six down; Kendall/Kelly four down; Perry/Kelly one down; Kraft/Stockton two down; Stadler/Watts two up; Frazar/Browne five down; Funk/Lickliter six down; Kendall/Pate one up; Perry/Damron five up

Back with 2nd round plays in a hour or so.

2nd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Scott Hoch -105 @ Five Dimes

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Steve Stricker -120 @ Five Dimes

Harrison Frazar to beat Greg Kraft -115 @ Five Dimes

Harrison Frazar to beat Andrew Magee -115 @ Five Dimes

Fred Funk to beat Frank Lickliter -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Bill Glasson to beat Loren Roberts -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Nolan Henke to beat Omar Uresti +120 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-5-1 and -6.50 units

Horrible week. Again the low-scoring takes place unusually in the afternoon. An awful lot to make up now over the weekend! The 2nd round results: Calcavecchia/Hoch eight down; Calcavecchia/Stricker six down; Frazar/Kraft four down; Frazar/Magee all square; Funk/Lickliter seven down; Glasson/Roberts two down; Henke/Uresti one up.

72-hole plays still stand at 3-6-0, though this includes three losses at the cut as Funk lost by eight to Kelly and thirteen to Lickliter, Frazar lost to Browne by six. The standings in the other plays are: Kendall/Kelly one down; Perry/Kelly three up; Kraft/Stockton one down; Stadler/Watts two up; Kendall/Pate three down; Perry/Damron six up.

Will have 3rd round plays in the morning.

3rd round plays:

Bill Glasson to beat Steve Pate -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Skip Kendall to beat Larry Mize -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Definitely a tournament for everyone to forget. Can't remember the last time the lead group went out at 10.15am on a Saturday! Don't expect too many wagering opportunities this weekend, maybe just as well   Need Chris Perry to make up that two-shot deficit and win this tournament to make it a profitable week.

3rd round update: 1-0-1 and +2.00 units

At last, a decent day! Kendall beat Mize by five shots and in a fluctuating battle, Glasson tied with Pate. The 72-hole plays also improved to 5-4-0 with the new standings being: Kendall/Kelly five up; Perry/Kelly seven up; Kraft/Stockton two up; Stadler/Watts three down; Kendall/Pate one up; Perry/Damron four up. Still a lot of damage to repair but at least one good day so far.

Back with 4th round plays in the morning.

4th round plays:

Brandel Chamblee to beat Larry Mize -110 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat J.P. Hayes -110 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Scott Hoch to beat Greg Kraft -145 @ Five Dimes

Loren Roberts to beat Franklin Langham -110 @ Carib  * SCALP - Langham +125 @ Five Dimes *

Kenny Perry to beat Steve Pate -110 @ Carib

Kenny Perry to beat Corey Pavin -140 @ GoTo Casino

Final update: 3-3 and -1.40 units for the day; 13-22-4 and -16.73 units for the week

Forgettable ending to a forgettable week. Chris Perry hit 16 of 18 greens, but managed only one birdie and seventeen pars all day; Hayes finished strongly to win the two-unit play by one shot. Of the others, Chamblee also lost by one and Kenny Perry lost by three to Pate. The winners were Kenny Perry beating Pavin by four, Roberts beating Langham by six and Hoch beating Kraft by five.

The 72-hole plays took a turn for the worse on Sunday as well. Kendall and Perry both beat Kelly by eight; Perry also beat Damron by six, by Kraft fell behind on the last day to lose to Stockton by two, as did Kendall in losing to Pate by two. There was no improvement in the others play, Stadler lost to Watts by seven.

Horrible week

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

As mentioned above, Chris Perry did everything right in the last round until he put his putter in his hand. He fell back to 9th place and out of the place money. The other two were never potential winners. Stricker finished in 63rd place and Funk missed the cut. Still can't hit the outright plays on the PGA Tour!