NCR Classic

Just a quick note to say that Davis Love & Chris Perry have filed very late entries for this week's event and that makes the 4/1 on offer for the 'field' @ North American books much more attractive while it stays at that price

The last event of the season for many of this week's field and as the scramble to hold onto a Tour card reaches its frenetic finale, we have a pro-am! It amazes me that with people's careers hanging in the balance, we should close the season with two pro-ams in the last three events. What a distraction for those serious players for whom money is important. Fourteen of this week's field have played in the last 8 straight tournaments; 32 of this week's field have played in 7 of the last 8 tournaments. Neither is by choice, but necessity. It's ridiculous, but that's my beef for this week.

The format is two days of playing with the amateurs over two courses, the Magnolia & Palm courses at the Walt Disney World Resort, with the tougher Magnolia being the venue for the two weekend rounds. As with any pro-am setup, the emphasis is not on accurate driving, wide fairways lessen the embarrassment of the amateurs and reward the longer-hitting pros: the winners in the last four years have been Tiger twice, Duval and Huston. There are also ample amounts of water and sand to make accurate iron play important and with Bermuda grass in use again on the greens, putting specialists of this strain will be particularly favoured.

The runaway leader in the Tour-Tips ratings is Tiger Woods and with his record in this event he cannot be opposed. But Butch Harmon admitted during the Presidents Cup that his pupil was struggling with his swing after a five-week layoff and there was evidence enough of it last week to side-step him at even money for this event. Of course, Tiger's entry pushes up the odds of the other players substantially and that creates value with many players capable of beating him this week, they are not just playing for 2nd place.

The three outright plays are Davis Love, Scott Verplank and Scott Hoch. Love has the best chance of the three of upstaging Tiger this week and looked in excellent form last week. His recent strokeplay form has been poor, but his confidence seemed to return last week and it was no surprise that he was a late addition to this week's field. He was 2nd on his visit in 1998 and his premium of length over accuracy off the tee will be ideally suited this week.

Verplank is another capable of winning this event. He won the Reno-Tahoe Open a couple of months ago to prove that he was finally winning his battle with diabetes. His accurate rather than powerful driving may not be well rewarded this week, but he finished 17th last year and has been putting together some decent finishes since his long-overdue Tour win. At odds of 50/1, even just a place finish would be very satisfactory.

Of the three, Hoch is the one for whom a place finish rather than outright win is most realistic. He has won 8 times on Tour, but the last was three years ago since when he has had 24 top-10 finishes on the Tour but without winning. Still, it had been an even longer wait for Verplank when he won the Reno-Tahoe! His record in this event is not sensational, like Verplank, his game is more centered around accuracy than length, but this is his 19th straight visit to the World Resort so he obviously likes the event. Putting to one side his missed cut last week, he has been in excellent form of late with three consecutive top-10 finishes and at large odds could make a place finish very profitable.

Outright plays:

Davis Love 25/1 @ Surrey

Scott Verplank 50/1 @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power or Surrey

Scott Hoch 50/1 @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power or Surrey

All three books pay the place element of the e/w bet on the first 5 places.

Just one 72-hole play for now:

Vijay Singh to beat Stuart Appleby -120 @ WSEX
Was disappointed with Appleby last week and looks one to oppose this week; Singh, for his part, had an embarrassing time on the greens, but these will be much slower and more to his liking. With finishes of 12th and 5th in the last two year's this could be a confidence-restoring event

Back this evening with the rest of the 72-hole and 1st round plays

Adding 72-hole plays:

Steve Flesch to beat Stuart Appleby -118 @ Centrebet  [-120 @ Five Dimes]
No great record on this course, but Flesch has been in great form all year and should beat Appleby easily, the only concern is his mysterious late withdrawal from the Tampa Bay Classic last week

Vijay Singh to beat Stuart Appleby -120 @ WSEX
Adding another unit

Scott Hoch to beat Paul Azinger +120 @ SportingbetUSA
Zinger's superior putter will not be so important this week; Hoch has the better stats in the other categories and not playing in the Presidents Cup may be a small advantage this week

Vijay Singh to beat Carlos Franco -145 @ Five Dimes
Franco would have won this match with ease last week, but this is a different proposition. With no course form and little experience of the pro-am format, expect him to underperform this week

Vijay Singh to beat Mike Weir -111 @ Ladbrokes
Exact same for Weir as for Franco, but he does have course experience: 64th in 1998, 57th in 1999. The let-down for the "Internationals" who played well last week will be great; the desire to redeem themselves for the underperformers will be just as great

1st round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Bob Friend -125 @ Victor Chandler

Grant Waite to beat Brad Faxon -115 @ Five Dimes

Steve Flesch to beat Mike Weir -105 @ Five Dimes

Scott Verplank to beat Scott Hoch +100 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Lee Janzen to beat Rocco Mediate +100 @ Moneyplays

Bob May to beat David Toms -115 @ Five Dimes

Scott Verplank to beat David Toms -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

1st round update: 4-2-1 and +0.75 units

Small gain on the day as the two-unit play on Verplank loses by three to Hoch and the three-unit play on Verplank is a push with Toms   The scores in the others: Ames/Friend 2 down; Waite/Faxon 2 up; Flesch/Weir 6 up; Janzen/Mediate 3 up; May/Toms 4 up. Situation on 72-hole plays looks good, currently standing 4-1-0: Singh/Appleby 4 up; Flesch/Appleby 8 up; Hoch/Azinger 1 up; Singh/Franco 2 down; Singh/Weir 2 up. A lot can change tomorrow though with the change in courses.

Back with 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

John Cook to beat Mark O'Meara -140 @ Intertops

Chris DiMarco to beat Kenny Perry -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Fred Funk -127 @ Island Casino  [same odds @ Sportbet]

Len Mattiace to beat Bill Glasson +135 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Scott Hoch to beat Skip Kendall -110 @ Moneyplays

Jerry Kelly to beat Skip Kendall +110 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Jerry Kelly to beat Kenny Perry +100 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Len Mattiace to beat Carl Paulson -115 @ Five Dimes

Omar Uresti to beat Charles Raulerson -111 @ DAS

Tiger Woods to shoot OVER 65.5 -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 2-6-2 and -3.92 units

Have been totally bemused by the lack of advantage of playing the Palm course over the Magnolia one - last year it was a 1.5 shot difference, in the first round there was no difference and today again there appears to be no advantage from playing the Palm course. That said, my picks were awful no matter what the course. Only two managed to break par when -4 only just makes the cut. Pathetic capping! Tiger's 67 spared my blushes today.

Today's results: Cook/O'Meara 5 down; DiMarco/Perry, K 6 up; Perry, C/Funk 1 down; Mattiace/Glasson 2 down; Hoch/Kendall 4 down; Kelly/Kendall 4 down; Kelly/Perry, K tied; Mattiace/Paulson 8 down; Uresti/Raulerson tied.

None of the 72-hole plays were decided at the cut and currently stand 3-2-0: Singh/Appleby 2 up; Flesch/Appleby 10 up; Hoch/Azinger 2 down; Singh/Franco 5 down; Singh/Weir 1 up.

Need to do much better tomorrow!

3rd round plays:

Skip Kendall to beat Bob Heintz -133 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Scott Verplank to beat J.L. Lewis +100 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Jay Williamson to beat David Morland +100 @ Centrebet

Tiger Woods to be 3rd round leader -133 @ DAS [2 units]

Tiger Woods to shoot UNDER 66.5 -133 @ DAS [2 units]

3rd round update: 4-1-0 and +4.34 units

Got back yesterday's losses with Tiger's failure to overtake Flesch being the only loser. Kendall beat Heintz by two; Verplank beat Lewis by three, Williamson beat Morland by four and Tiger managed another bogey-free round on his way to a 66. With Flesch shooting the same score, he remains 2nd.

The 72-hole plays still stand 3-2-0, but are now a little more secure and Singh has closed on Franco: Singh/Appleby 8 up; Flesch/Appleby 17 up; Hoch/Azinger 7 down; Singh/Franco 1 down; Singh/Weir 3 up.

Some hope with the outright plays as well: Love and Verplank both lie in 7th place, one shot out of a place finish. Very unlikely they will win, but if one of them can improve in the 4th round it will be a profitable week on the outrights.

4th round plays:

Glen Day to beat Bradley Hughes -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Scott Dunlap to beat David Frost -115 @ Olympic [2 units]

Carlos Franco to beat Jay Williamson -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Davis Love to beat Fred Funk -135 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

Tiger Woods to shoot UNDER 66.5 -143 @ DAS [2 units]

Final update: 3-2-0 and +0.44 units for the day; 16-13-3 and +3.16 units for the week

Lose the two plays with the shortest odds today, but still managed to at least break even. Happy to have done so for the week after a disastrous Friday. Today there were easy wins for Day and Franco who won by four shots and Dunlap who won by ten shots. Love lost by six to Funk though and Woods had the worst round of the week to lose the 4th round score prop and surprise many by not winning this tournament. Should have re-read what I wrote about him at the start of the week!

The 72-hole plays remained 3-2-0 until the end: Singh beat Appleby by four and Weir by three, but lost to Franco by two. Hoch lost by nine to Azinger, but Flesch beat Appleby by fourteen.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +4.25 units

Verplank's double-65 weekend breaks a three-week barren spell and makes a place finish from 50/1 a nice winner. Love was in the same position as Verplank overnight, but could only manage 71 and fell to 13th place. Hoch was well down the field in 57th place.