Update: 2-1 and +1.05 units for the day; 6-8 and -3.35 units for the week

At least there was one winning day in four! Parnevik won by six and Armour won by three. Tiger, again, didn't break 70 when in the pack on Sunday, but he still beat a hugely disappointing Duval by two. Of the remaining 72-hole matchups, Couples won by six, but a very disinterested Els lost by seven to Duval.

First bad week since Hawaii. Just never got to grips with this tournament   The WGC Matchplay starts on Wednesday; lots of matchups of course, but 18-hole matchplay is very unpredictable. Not sure how many plays I will have, but wagers will certainly be low. The Tucson Open may be more profitable betting ground.

Back on Tuesday.

Two more plays for the final round. The first is Tommy Armour to beat Rocco Mediate. Neither of these two is expected to remain in the lofty position of 2nd at the end of today's round; since the start of last season only once has either player shot a sub-70 final round when starting the day in the top-10 [Armour - 68 - Doral-Ryder last March]. In truth, there is not much to choose between these players, but when one of them shoots the lowest score of the day in the previous round, it's always a good play to oppose them. Armour will be the fresher player and more capable of facing the pressures of challenging for the tournament.

The other would have been a suicide play until last week: David Duval to beat Tiger Woods. Both are only three shots out of the lead, though in 20th place and it is a question of who will make the stronger charge. Woods has been struggling with his putter and if it continues today, the frustration could destroy his chances. Since the start of the 1999 season, when Woods has started Sunday out of the top-10 [just four times] he has shot 69, 75, 71 and 72. Not a charger from distance therefore? Though he is only three shots, he needs that something extra to separate him from such a large number of contenders. When similarly in the pack, Duval has shot very low scores: he shot 63 at the Greater Hartford Open last year when starting Sunday in 37th place. Still not convinced he's the player he was, but playing with Tiger, there should be no shortage of effort to beat him even if he can't win the tournament outright. That effort may not be reciprocated by Tiger in such circumstances. And then there's the odds! Long live Tiger-mania

Staking plan:

Tommy Armour to beat Rocco Mediate @ +105 at GoTo, Moneyplays, Bowmans and Carib

David Duval to beat Tiger Woods @ +175 with Carib

Update: 3rd shit day of 3!!!

Cink loses by one to Hoch and 3-shot swing in last two holes denies a win with Hayes as he trails Scherrer home by one Tway beats Chalmers by two, but Els can only tie with McCarron!?! What a frustrating game this is!

One early play for the 4th round: Jesper Parnevik to beat David Sutherland. Yup, another favorite, but could anyone cap this one otherwise? David Sutherland has never won a PGA Tour event before, has only once ever lead a tournament after three rounds [the Greater Milwaukee Open, he finished tied 2nd] and will be inevitably distracted by the enormous crowds that will follow the grouping that includes Woods and Duval together just six groups ahead. If one of those makes an early jump out of the pack, we could see a very nervous start, maybe even Lickliter proportions! Already a winner in 2000 and top of the greens in regulation stats, Parnevik has to be the clear favorite to win the event. Easy pickings?

Update:

Was hoping for much better! Lose both 2nd round matchups very comprehensively - Brooks loses by five and Lancaster by seven as he collapses out of 3rd place overnight to miss the cut! Calcavecchia misses the cut to lose to Hoch and Els falls two behind Duval. On a brighter note, Faldo misses the cut to hand victory to van de Velde and Couples opens up a two shot lead over Furyk after a 66. However, 1-3 for the tournament so far; need to make amends today. There are four plays for today, but try as I may, I cannot find a dog that I like, these are all favorites

The first is Bob Tway to beat Greg Chalmers. Tway should perform well on this course - decent greens in regulation stats and a Major winner - but this is largely a play against Chalmers. Three missed cuts out of four this season adds extra pressure to make this week count in respect of money and playing privileges. His track record is not good when starting fast: he has never improved on his 2nd round position when he started the 3rd in the top-25. Okay, he can't do today because for the 1st time he is joint first, but his 3rd round score has always been above the average score on that day when in that position. Bye-bye Greg!

The second is Stewart Cink to beat Scott Hoch. Already lost to Hoch this week with Calc missing the cut, so looking for revenge now! Both have shot the same scores on each round and so both are looking to bounce back into contention today. Other than the already cited criteria of very poor current form for Hoch, the other reason for this play is their very different 3rd round performances when in similar positions. When in the top-30 after the cut, Cink has shot better than the field-average seven times out of eight since the start of the 1999 season [he was only 0.25 shots above the average for the 3rd round at the Memorial last year]; Hoch beaten the field average just four times out of thirteen occasions when in the same situation. Decisive for me!

The next features, very rarely, two players currently in 53rd position in the tournament: Ernie Els and Scott McCarron. Now Els is the favorite for this matchup, but surely this is a very one-sided match! Els should be much higher than he is, but he will not be totally downcast, he is just seven shots out of the lead and only four shots behind the highest 'serious' contender, Hal Sutton. As defending champion, he is also much less likely to give up today. On the back of three successive missed cuts, to make one is a relief for McCarron. There really is nothing to suggest he will improve on his season-high finish of 51st this week.

Finally, J.P. Hayes is tipped to beat Tom Scherrer. Neither of these were expected to be in the top-5 at this stage of the tournament and only one is expected to remain there. Last year when Scherrer was 9th after round two at the St Jude Classic, he shot 74 to drop to 47th and when he was 10th after round two at the Tucson Open he shot 75 to drop to 38th. As for Hayes, of the five times he has started the 3rd round in the top-20 since the start of last year, he has improved his position in all but one of those times. Yesterday was his 'back to earth' round after his opening 64. Look for him to maintain his position; it will be more than enough!

Staking plan:

Bob Tway to beat Greg Chalmers @ -140 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Stewart Cink to beat Scott Hoch @ -120 with Bowmans

Ernie Els to beat Scott McCarron @ -130 with the starnet books (e.g.. Sportfanatik or MySports)

J.P. Hayes to beat Tom Scherrer @ -140 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Update:

Was hoping for better! Els does defeat Duval to win 1st round matchup but only by one; though that is the same margin by which Franco loses to Sluman   In the other plays, Hoch finds his form big-time to lie in 7th position and lead Calcavecchia by two shots and Couples shoots a disappointing 72 to lie four shots behind Furyk. As long as he makes the cut ...

The final play should not make it to the weekend. Faldo's had a NINE on his 2nd hole, the 11th on the course. He will really struggle to make the cut and with van de Velde having a six-shot lead, this one looks better.

The are two plays that I like for the 2nd round, but unfortunately so did the linemaker for GoTo Sportsbook! They're both favorites. The first is Neal Lancaster to beat Robin Freeman. They currently lie in 3rd and 2nd place respectively, which is foreign ground for both of them. But Lancaster's form is much the better: he played in five tournaments so far this year and made the cut in them all, four of them being in the top-30. Freeman has played four, missed the cut in two and has a top place finish of 38th. Neither has a particularly good record in this tournament, though Freeman has a 6th place finish here in 1997, so they are expected to fall back to pack today. It is a question of how much and the current evidence is that the lack of oxygen at this height if the leaderboard will be asphyxiating for Freeman.

The second is Mark Brooks to beat Bob Tway. Other than a 14th place last week, it has been a poor start to the season for Tway. Has the quality to remain in contention and the foundation of his game has been his greens in regulation, currently 13th in the stats this year. Brooks is having a much better season than last, he was 7th at the Phoenix, his putting and driving stats are much better than last year and in particular in the greens in regulation he is up from 155th last year to 18th. It shows the overall level of renewed confidence in his game and particularly in an area that is important this week. Finished 9th last year and 2nd in 1996 on this course, he looks a better bet to carry on his challenge into the weekend.

Staking plan:

Neal Lancaster to beat Robin Freeman @ -130 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Mark Brooks to beat Bob Tway @ -125 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Nissan Open

The streak is over and it's back to business as usual at the Nissan Open this week. What that will mean for Tiger's performance this week is unclear, but there will be many that will tee up this week with renewed confidence that Tiger can be beaten and with additional motivation to make amends for the way that have been belittled over the past few months. No-one will be more motivated as Big Ernie who last the Mercedes to Tiger last month in such dramatic circumstance.

Riviera is a classic golf course; no other on the PGA Tour has the distinction of hosting the US PGA, the US Open and the US Senior Open. Only Pebble Beach has held two of these three Majors. As Sol Johnson has highlighted in Golf Online, this pedigree of course has led to a similar pedigree of winner: with the exception of 1991, every winner of this event since 1989 has been a winner of a Major. Look for similar quality players to impress this week.

Although the course is under 7000 yards, length is still important as the Kikuyu fairways which are so unusual in the United States do not allow much roll. The make-up of the track is such that a power fade is the ideal shape. It is no coincidence that exponents of that shot, e.g. Couples and Stadler have super long term form here [69.84 and 70.33 shots respectively; minimum 16 rounds]. The Bentgrass greens are small, meaning that greens in regulation will be an important statistic.

In the main, the matchups on offer have not been very attractive. The majority of those adopted have been offered by the Euro sportsbooks, so beware the tie. Though it is extremely rare over 72 holes. Such is the case with the Calcavecchia-Hoch matchup offered by the Gibraltar based Ladbrokes company. It has been a fairly satisfactory start for Calc this year, a 7th place finish at the Phoenix Open was followed by 20th place at the AT&T, but he has in particular been very impressive from tee to green. He currently stands 9th in this year's greens in regulation stats, while his opponent is a lowly 127th. It really has been a poor start to the season from Hoch so far, a missed cut and a 77th place is hardly the stuff of matchup winners. While Hoch has a very impressive course record - 3rd in 1997 and 7th last year - the really is no justification on current form to expect such a similar finish this year.

The second is Fred Couples to beat Jim Furyk. As said earlier, this course suits Freddie - the power-fade, the Major winner - and now that he can combine that with some decent form last week he looks set for a great week. Importantly, he was the only player not to freeze when paired with Tiger. This must be his favorite event, he has won it twice and finished 2nd three times on this course in the 1990s and leads the long-term scoring charts here by quite some distance. He has been paired with Jim Furyk who should have done better than he has done in the tournaments so far this year and who has an extremely poor record in this event: a 9th place finish in 1995 stands out from his other finishes of 48th, 62nd and two missed cuts. Seems to mismatched to be true!

Then there's Ernie. Yes, power-fade is Duval's trademark shot and yes, he's riding high in the greens in regulation stats and yes, he finished 5th last year, but he's not the player he was twelve months ago. That player would not have finished 30th in the Phoenix or closed with rounds of 76 and 75 last time out to miss the cut at the AT&T. Duval's weight training has back-fired, he has lost that vital element of 'feel', especially with the putter. This course was made for Els. The Kikuyu grass so prevalent in South Africa, the tight fairways, the small greens, all of these are ideally suited to Els, a Major winner which Duval is not. Twice a winner of the US Open on similar tight courses he should build on his 2nd, 5th and 4th place finishes this year and go even better this week.

The final 72-hole play is Jean van de Velde to beat Nick Faldo. Okay, Faldo is a Major winner, but Velde was almost one! He did show good signs of form last week at the Buick Invitational and will surely be a decent bet to make the cut again. Whether Faldo will is highly questionable. He did win this event at this course in 1997, but his record since then is well-known. His first start of the season, but will in all probability be out of town at the weekend!

Apart from the Els-Duval play which is repeated for the 1st round, the other 18-hole play is on Carlos Franco to beat Jeff Sluman. Franco may not be the most accurate of player, but he does perform extremely well on hard courses and in high-quality fields. He was 15th last year and started the year with two top-10 finishes in Hawaii. Sluman disappointed in the final round last week in an event that was made for him. Will be disappointed with that and with no course form to talk about, he looks a decent player to oppose this week. 

Nissan Open plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Scott Hoch @ -110 with Ladbrokes

Fred Couples to beat Jim Furyk @ -118 with Sportodds

Ernie Els to beat David Duval @ +100 with Sportingbet

Jean van de Velde to beat Nick Faldo -111 with Sportingbet

Ernie Els to beat David Duval [1st round] @ -135 with GoTo or Moneyplays

Carlos Franco to beat Jeff Sluman [1st round] @ -115 with GoTo or Moneyplays