Pennsylvania Classic

A new event, but not a new course. Waynesborough was built 35 years ago, but this is the first time that it has staged a PGA Tour event; in fact it is twenty years since Pennsylvania hosted a PGA Tour event and this could be something to stir up an added effort from the home state boys, Rocco Mediate and Jim Furyk. The description I have of the course is that it is set on rolling terrain with tree-lined fairways. Ponds and creeks figure on several holes. It is hard to surmise from that the type of golfer that would play well on this course, so may be it is best that most plays will be made from the 2nd round onwards this week. Nevertheless, the matchup-makers will also be in the dark this week, so there should be a few limited opportunities available.

With Furyk being rather short odds for a new event/course, the value could lie elsewhere with the likes of Bob May, Chris Perry or Chris Riley. May's last three finishes read 5th, 2nd 3rd so there can be no doubting his form or his confidence. The same can also be said for Chris Riley who recorded a 4th place finish at the John Deere Classic and repeated it two weeks ago at the Air Canada Championship when he could have gone much closer. He looks a decent longshot, while Perry can usually be counted upon to be in contention, especially given the weak field on view this week. More guesswork than usual needed for this event, but final outright plays will be made when the tee-times are known.

Will have matchup plays in the morning.

Just one early 72-hole matchup play:

Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Backing the dependable Perry against the unbackable Paraguayan. Franco is very hard to predict, but his form has been very poor for the past few months and that can't be ignored

Outright plays:

The top-ranked players this week are Chris Perry and Bob May and both are available are odds that are favorable. On a course in which length is not a primary consideration, both players look well-suited. Perry's stats in particular look very strong: of this field, he ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 3rd in greens in regulation and 16th in putting average. May is 23rd in greens in regulation, but his story is one of very strong recent form so 12-month stats can be a little misleading in this case. William Hill offer 28/1 on Perry and 22/1 on May with the e/w bet paid on the first four places.

The 3rd player this week is Scott Verplank. Now fitted with a pump to his belt to control his diabetes, he is finally fulfilling his potential. A winner of the Reno-Tahoe Open three weeks ago, he took a week off and then finished 6th last week in a much stronger field. In a weak field this week he looks good value at 33/1 with Paddy Power who pay the e/w bet in the first five places.

72-hole plays:

Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ Ladbrokes
Adding another unit

Scott Verplank to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Easybets
Another play on an outright pick against the poor-of-late Franco

Chris Perry to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ Bowmans
McCarron's form may be as good as Perry's, but his game is centered around length off the tee and good putting. The first is not such a bonus this week and while they are both good putters, McCarron woeful ball-striking should be his downfall

Chris Perry to beat Rocco Mediate -115 @ WSEX
Mediate is a better ball-striker than McCarron, but really struggles on the greens. He may be the home state player, but the limited information available on the course suggests good all-round stats will be required this week

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Pate -110 @ Bowmans
Almost played Triplett for the outright, but was concerned about his form. Nevertheless it is still better than Pate's and in terms of all-round stats, Triplett is 2nd only to Chris Perry in this week's field - Pate doesn't have a core stat in the top-50 of this week's field

1st round plays:

Fred Funk to beat Shigeki Maruyama -115 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Scott McCarron 125 @ Five Dimes

Carl Paulson to beat Gary Nicklaus -111 @ DAS [2 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Pate -120 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-3-0 and -3.57 units

Definitely right to be cautious at the start of this tournament. None of the 1st round picks broke par and Fred Funk even withdrew altogether. Paulson lost by six to Nicklaus and Triplett lost by five to Pate, while Perry was the only winner, by four shots over McCarron. Plenty of time yet, but the 72-hole plays are currently standing a poor 1-3-1: Perry/Franco four down; Verplank/Franco four down; Perry/McCarron four up; Perry/Mediate all square; and Triplett/Pate five down.

Will take a good look at the scores and see if it confirms what the TV pictures show: this is a course for (i) accuracy and (ii) good putters. Should be able to put in a better performance with the 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Carlos Franco +120 @ Island Casino  [same odds @ Sportbet]

Scott Dunlap to beat Frank Lickliter -120 @ DAS

Rocco Mediate to beat Carlos Franco -105 @ DAS

Chris Perry to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Jeff Sluman to beat Gary Nicklaus -115 @ Moneyplays [3 units] [same odds @ Island Casino, Sportbet, On-Line Casino]

Scott Verplank to beat Grant Waite -110 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 5-1-0 and +8.00 units

A great day with convincing winners and a reversal for the better in the 72-hole plays   Calc beat Franco by nine, Mediate beat Franco by eight and Perry beat Franco by seven. Elsewhere, Sluman beat Nicklaus by four and Verplank beat Waite by two, while the only loss by a eight-shot defeat of Scott Dunlap by Frank Lickliter.

Two 72-hole plays are decided at the cut: one good, one bad. McCarron misses out by one to grant Perry a four-shot win, while Triplett is a heavy eleven shot loser to Steve Pate. Three plays remain alive with the 3-unit play looking good, Perry leads Franco by three, and in the others, Verplank leads Franco by three and Perry trails Mediate by one.

Will have 3rd round plays in the morning.

3rd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Frank Lickliter -125 @ Moneyplays [2 units] [same odds at other UGS books]

Steve Flesch to beat Sandy Lyle -182 @ DAS [3 units]

Will have more later.

Adding:

Tom Byrum to beat Bradley Hughes -120 @ William Hill

Chris Perry to beat Trevor Dodds -164 @ William Hill 

Brian Henninger to beat David Morland -125 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Scott Verplank to beat Ted Tryba -125 @ Centrebet

3rd round update: 2-3-1 and -7.16 units

  Bad-day - good-day - bad-day; suppose I should be looking forward to tomorrow! The main damage was caused by Lyle's one shot victory over Flesch - thought it was a banker and paid the penalty   In the other plays, Calc tied with Lickliter, Byrum tied with Hughes, but it was at William Hill, so it was a loss, Perry beat Dodds by nine, Henninger lost to Morland by eight and Verplank beat Tryba by four.

At the 72-hole plays improved to look very strong: Perry leads Franco by seven and Mediate by six, while Verplank leads Franco by three. On the outright plays, Verplank is five shots out of a place finish and has only a slim chance, but Perry is sixth and looks a good bet to get back some of today's losses.

4th round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Chris DiMarco +150 @ On-Line Casino [3 units]  * SCALP - DiMarco +120 @ Sportfanatik and other starnet books *

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Frank Lickliter -133 @ DAS [3 units]

Chris Perry to beat Jonathan Kaye -115 @ Sportfanatik and other starnet books

Chris Perry to beat Frank Lickliter -115 @ On-Line Casino [3 units]

Jeff Sluman to beat Sandy Lyle -143 @ DAS

Final update: 3-2-0 and +2.57 units for the day; 15-10-1 and +4.89 units for the week

A profitable week is always a good week, especially when its a new event and a new course. The see-saw week continued with a good 4th day as well: Calc lost by three to DiMarco [good job about the scalp ] and Sluman lost by four to Lyle, but Calc beat Lickliter by four, Perry beat Lickliter by six and Kaye by one. The remaining 72-hole plays all won: Perry by four over Franco and eight over Mediate and Verplank by two over Franco.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.10 units

Perry finished 2nd, but had to share it with four others to make it only a small profit on his place finish. Verplank finished two shots back in 8th place to go close, while May had already missed the cut. With so many of the big-name players not even making the weekend in this event, to break even is satisfying.