Update:  Strange Day!

The players in the lead group collapse to both finish tenth; other players surge into the lead only to drop back just as spectacularly; Lehman wins it after being nowhere at the turn and Allenby misses five-foot putt to force a playoff, Still, at least it meant the golf finished before the Superbowl began!

Obviously Allenby won his matchup with Stankowski though it was by more than the finishing two shots throughout and Gump, well, Gump birdied the first hole. He finished with a 77 so that's enough said about that one! And then there's Mickelson and Lickliter. After 4 holes, Lickliter was five-over-par for the day and trailed Mickelson by six. After 10 holes, Mickelson was seven ahead and looking good for the title. Let's just say that Mickelson won the matchup by one shot and leave the rest to the imagination!

Not such good news on the 72-hole matchup front. The two remaining plays both lost: Parnevik lost by three and Hart lost by two After such an excellent start to the week we finish 8-3 and +4.64 units which still can't be scoffed at!

Update:

Weir trounces Daly by eight shots. Must be one of the easiest picks of the year and amazing that Daly was made such a heavy favorite! On the 72-hole front, things only worsened though. Of the two remaining matchups, Parnevik shot 72 to fall one shot behind Chris Perry, while Andrew Magee shot an excellent 67 to draw level with Dudley Hart. The unbeaten week target is under threat!

There are three plays for the 4th round. The first is Robert Allenby to beat Paul Stankowski. After an impressive 12th place finish last week as one of our picks, we expect Allenby to continue his good form and at least maintain his 3rd place finish. Neither of these two are particularly practiced of late at being in such lofty positions after the 3rd round, but Allenby's game looks the stronger and more able to cope with the pressure.

The second is Scott Gump to beat the defending champion, Rocco Mediate. A top-10 position for a defending champion is impressive any week. But his record of improving a 3rd round position while in the top-20 is not impressive. Only once did he do so last year and that was in the Buick Challenge; in four of the other five occasions his final day collapse was spectacular. He won on the other occasion [this event] but then he had a seven-shot lead at the start of the final day, he won by two. While we successfully opposed Gump in the second round, he is a very good 'closer' of events. On six occasions he started the final day in the top-15; on six occasions he shot lower than the average score for the day despite the extra pressure of being on the leaderboard; the most famous of which was the TPC. Expect him to do the same today.

The third is the most obvious and so the worst odds. Local hero, Phil Mickelson, and his hundred thousand fans to beat Frank Lickliter. Mickelson final day record is as good any anyone and especially in his current leaderboard position. Lickliter's is not so impressive. Last year he twice started the final day in 3rd position [only top-5 examples], he finished the tournaments in 10th and 11th places. Add to that the pressure of normally very vocal local crowd and the pressure on Lickliter will be huge. Surprised these odds are not shorter.

Staking plan:

Robert Allenby to beat Paul Stankowski @ -110 with WSEX

Scott Gump to beat Rocco Mediate @ +110 with GoTo Casino

Phil Mickelson to beat Frank Lickliter @ -140 with Enterbet

Chaos rules for golf punters after delayed finish to 2nd round. No more matchups available so just the one pick. Reminiscent of the Alfred Dunhill two weeks ago   Let's hope they finish the round in time today! 

Update: Still looking good.

A very good day! Win both the 2nd round matchups, plus a further two from 72-holers with Sergio missing the cut, while Perry only just makes the cut by one. Now if only Magee would drop just one more shot [he has returned early morning to complete the last three holes of his 2nd round] ...

Adding one play for 3rd round: Mike Weir to beat John Daly @ +110.

Odds very attractive for any play against Daly. Back later with the rest of the plays.

Update:  A great day

Dudley Hart shot 67 to be tied with Andrew Magee; Jesper Parnevik shot 68 to be two shots ahead of Chris Perry and eight shots ahead of Sergio Garcia; and Vijay Singh shot 69 to to seven shots ahead of Sergio and win that 1st round matchup with ease. So looking good! Only Hart is not ahead, but while Magee impressed, Hart showed there is plenty of reason to be confident of a good finish. He was four-under-par after just five holes after holing his second shot on the 453 yard 5th hole, ranked the 5th hardest hole yesterday despite Hart's eagle. Naturally such outrageous bursts of fortune disrupt a player's concentration and he bogeyed the next two holes. C'est la vie!

The first 2nd round pick is Lee Janzen to beat Scott Gump. Janzen has been disappointing for quite some time and even missed the cut at the Sony Open. But he is a former winner here [1993] and has finished in the top-15 the last three years. Both his three-year and career scoring averages at Scottsdale are under 70 and that is worthy of note. Note so impressive for Gump who also missed the cut at the Sony; he was 51st last week. In nine appearances in the Phoenix Open his highest finish is 41st. They both start the 2nd round in 31st place, there is nothing to suggest that Gump should improve on that to any great degree.

The second pick is Hal Sutton to beat Andrew Magee. Okay, Magee was impressive for the 2nd consecutive round in his opening 67, but while he showed some form with in his final round last week to finish 10th, Sutton was 5th. So with two players in form, how to differentiate between them? First is course form. Sutton may have been a winner of this event back in 1986 that counts for nothing. What is more important is that when the course was tightened up last year he was 4th; Magee was 26th during a rich vein of form that would involve a runners-up spot in the Anderson World Matchplay. On tight courses, Sutton is always a decent play. Second is the split tee-times. Sutton completed his 67 in the afternoon when the greens were harder, bumpier and more spiked, a better effort than Magee's 67 under normal circumstances. This means that Sutton will be playing in the morning today, 8.35am MT when the condition of the course will be at its best. More noticeable, however, is that while Magee is playing in the afternoon, he is playing in the 2nd last group. About 120 players will have lent over on one foot about 18 inches from the hole to pick their ball out of the cup by then. About 120 players would have helped to create an indentation on the green just before the hole which is thereby raised making it harder to hole the putts! Note Garcia' 76 was conducted while playing in the 3rd last group. The average score yesterday was 70.80; the average score of those players in the last two groups [1st and 10th tee starts] was 73.17. It is obviously not a major determinant of player's score, but it is certainly a handicap to tee off at that time.

Staking plan:

Lee Janzen to beat Scott Gump @ -105 with Enterbet

Hal Sutton to beat Andrew Magee @ -130 with Enterbet

The Phoenix Open.

Close on half a million people will be in Scottsdale to watch this event; the course richly deserves its 'stadium' title. Large crowds make large noises and it was here in 1997 that Tiger Woods' hole in one was greeted with such scenes that it was dubbed 'the shot that was heard around the world'. Tiger even made his mark on this event last year when, with the help of a dozen volunteers he showed that a boulder was a moveable object. It was in the way of his ball! Now he's making headlines of a different sort and he doesn't need to be here. Nevertheless, this is the first 'real' tournament of the season and the quality of the field is ample proof of that.

The course is not long at all - under 7,000 yards - and in the thin air, the ability to hit the ball a long way counts for nothing. In fact the ability to hit the ball straight off the tee doesn't count for much. The fairways are generous, but for the very wayward who don't have so many helpers on hand to move anything in the way, the desert scrubs do pose serious problems. In short it is a second-shot course. The greens are medium size and of Bermuda turf, there are 70 bunkers and plenty of water to test those shots. It is in this area that the course was toughened and it led to the average score being 3 shots higher than in the previous three years.

With severe penalties for very wild drives and nothing for length off the tee, it should be no surprise that the first play is against Sergio Garcia. This is his first PGA event of the year and only his 2nd desert course outing; the first was at the Williams World Challenge and he came just 5th out of 12 competitors. He had a very tiring end of 1999 and while he is now rested properly it is difficult to see him starting fast; this is simply not a course made for his game. He is good enough to post some decent scores, but he won't be a winner.

So confident on this prediction on I that I will play it threefold. I'll oppose him with Jesper Parnevik and Vijay Singh for the whole 72-hole and with Vijay for the 1st round only. Here are two players that have an excellent track record at this event/course. Parnevik has finished 2nd, 1st and 14th the past 3 years here; no wonder he heads the table of 3-year scoring average at this course. In terms of lifetime scoring average at the TPC Scottsdale, it is Vijay who heads the table with an average score of 68.75 shots [16 rounds; minimum 16 rounds]; Parnevik lies 3rd in that statistic behind local Mark Calcavecchia. Vijay won this event in 1995 and his worst finish has been only 22nd.

There can be no doubts over current form either. Parnevik's three tournament finishes have been 6th, 3rd and then 1st last week. Had he not won last week, he really would be a strong play to win this event, despite the presence of Duval in the field. A second-gear performance from Parnevik should be enough to defeat Garcia. Similarly for Vijay who decided to rest last week; a decision in line with his commitment to player fewer events on the Tour this year, it can only help his golf. Again impressive in the events so far, his iron play should serve up a treat this week. The play is also on the 1st round as well not simply because it is such a strong lean, but also because of the tee-times. The weather forecast is not too hot, but Garcia is playing in the 3rd last group of the day. The greens should be very spiked up and bumpy by then.

With those kinds of statistics it should be no surprise that we're doubling up on Parnevik; this time against Chris Perry. It was always going to be difficult following the season of his life and a 36th place finish last week would have been unthinkable six months ago. Maybe the break did him no good, he never seemed to want one during the season! Is there hope for a turnaround this week? No. He has played in the Phoenix Open 10 times; he has made it to the weekend on only 4 occasions! If his name were Kenny Perry that would be different; he's had an excellent record in this tournament of late, but not Chris. Complete polar opposite to Jesper's stats, yet they're in the same matchup??? Thankyou!

The last play is on another course specialist, Dudley Hart, to see off another who is not, Andrew Magee. Hart has finished 8th and 10th in this event over the past two years; for Magee his two top-10 finishes in this event are spread over 15 attempts! This is the first outing of the season for Hart, as it was the previous two years when he had top-10 finishes so that is not a problem. But Hart is another, like Glen Day, high performance golfer who because of a lack of name can generate decent value in the odds. Take WSEX for example, he doesn't even figure in their list of futures odds; needless to day he isn't quoted in their interactives. But here is a player who is a former winner of a PGA Tour event - the Canadian Open in 1996 - and who had eight top-10 finishes from 22 starts last year with only one missed cut. That's good, but largely unknown. We'll predict another top-10 finish this week and that will be enough to dispose of Andrew Magee

Staking plan:

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia @ +110 with Oasis

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia [1st round] @ -110 with GoTo Casino or Moneyplays Casino

Jesper Parnevik to beat Sergio Garcia @ -125 with Centrebet

Jesper Parnevik to beat Chris Perry @ -110 with Stan James

Dudley Hart to beat Andrew Magee @ -138 [-146 after 2.5% tax] with BlueSq