PGA Tour - Picks

The 4th staging of the Presidents Cup and one that has been eagerly awaited since the American team were thrashed 20½-11½ in Melbourne two years ago. The event returns to the Robert Trent Jones golf club where the Americans won the first two matches, though only by a single point in 1996. The format is fairly similar to the Ryder Cup with foursomes and fourball matches taking place over the first three days and singles on the final day. Of a total of 32 matches, 16½ is the magic figure.

The American team has been described as the 'Dream Team' and has attracted odds of -200 and lower. Funny, I seem to remember similar descriptions and odds for the American team in the last two Presidents Cups and umpteen Ryder Cups and with the exception of the very first Presidents Cup in 1994 there has been no easy victory for either side for almost twenty years. Reputations can be real handicaps in these events. When the expectation of victory is so high, it imposes tremendous pressure on the favourites. Davis Love talked about it openly before the last Ryder Cup and how else can we explain Tiger Woods' dreadful record in this event and the Ryder Cup.

This will be a very close game and talk of an American stroll is false. The American team contains seven [of twelve] who have no Presidents Cup experience and three who have no matchplay record at all. The International team contains eight players who recorded that famous victory two years and of the rest, only two are 'rookies'. Nor is the 'home' venue a significant advantage for the American team, ten of the International team ply their trade on the PGA Tour, which is quite different from the Europeans for the Ryder Cup.

And then there are the captains. Peter Thomson captains the International team for the third time. The first time they lost by a single point and on the second occasion he completely outwitted Jack Nicklaus with outstanding tactical prowess. If only Mark James had had a shadow of that ability at Brookline... The American captain is Ken Venturi, the TV pundit, who is a 'rookie' at this level and has shown by his captain's picks that his heart may be prone to ruling his head. He is an unknown quantity, but faces a huge tactical challenge to avoid having his biggest assets frustrated.

Ideally I would like a point or two handicap to make the outright play more secure - those 2½ points were useful in the Ryder Cup - but at +230 there is tremendous value in the outright win for the International team. Also fancy Els to be top points scorer for the International - he will be used in all five games and was in great form in the matchplay events of the last two weeks, but it is a very unpredictable market for short odds, so will pass with just the one outright play and a search for a couple of points handicap.

Five Dimes now have the International team +240

Missed out there, but now have the prop that I was looking for:

The following table may be of interest. It details the win-loss-halve records of each player from the last three Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup matches.

	Foursomes			Fourballs			Singles			Total
	W	L	H	W	L	H	W	L	H	W	L	H
Azinger	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Begay	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cink	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Duval	1	3	0	2	2	2	2	1	0	5	6	2
Furyk	0	4	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	3	7	0
Lehman	2	4	2	3	2	2	3	1	1	8	7	5
Love	3	3	4	5	3	4	4	2	0	12	8	8
Mickelson	1	4	2	5	2	4	3	1	2	9	7	8
Roberts	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	1	5	2	1
Sutton	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	1	1
Triplett	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Woods	2	3	1	1	5	0	2	1	0	5	9	1
Total	14	21	9	18	19	13	18	7	4	50	47	26

Allenby	2	2	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	3	6	0
Appleby	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	1
Campbell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Elkington	4	1	1	3	2	1	1	1	1	8	4	3
Els	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	0	0	6	2	2
Franco	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	1
Goosen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maruyama	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	0
Norman	2	1	1	3	1	0	1	1	0	6	3	1
Price	2	1	2	1	3	2	1	2	0	4	6	4
Singh	4	2	0	4	2	0	0	1	2	8	5	2
Weir	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	19	8	6	17	13	4	6	8	4	42	29	14

Some interesting trends appear. Principally, the Americans have very poor foursomes records, while the Internationals have a very strong one. This suggests that Internationals could be in a strong position after the initial foursomes and if the odds tumble on an International win after that set of matches, it may be a good point at which to hedge any outright bet on the International team. Similarly, it may also be the case just before the singles matches, as the Americans have a rather dominant record in that format.

The table could be useful when looking at individual matches. For example, Furyk has an awful foursomes and fourballs record, but is unstoppable on Sunday. Tiger has an awful fourballs record; maybe the playing partner effect we find in strokeplay events is particularly strong on his partner, but is a motivator for his opponents. His foursomes record is not that good either and again the same forces appear to be at work. Mickelson has an awful foursomes record, but a very good fourball record and so on.

On the overall records front, Davis Love and Loren Roberts look impressive for the American team and certainly Roberts might not be such a bad proposition for the leading American points scorer @ 14/1, maybe the e/w @ 1/4 odds for the first three places. For the International team, Maruyama's 5-0-0 record in 1998 is memorable, but he is unlikely to repeat that. The same may be said for Elkington. Instead, Els and Singh look particularly impressive, while Price is surprisingly not.

Allenby & Appleby to beat Sutton & Furyk +150 @ Sportingbet
Sutton not in the form he was and Furyk with an awful record for foursomes; the Australians should surprise with Appleby being the star player in this group

Goosen & Weir to beat Cink & Triplett +125 @ Sportodds
Sportodds appear out of line with most other books making Goosen & Weir favorites in this battle of the rookies. Looking for Weir's character and Goosen matchplay experience to secure the win

Els & Singh to beat Woods & Begay +100 @ Five Dimes
With a great foursomes record, Els & Singh will have little to fear in facing the rookie Begay. His partner may be a different proposition, but with a push for a halve the value lies with the International team here

Yikes! Wipeout! Same for my plays as well! Goosen & Weir were the only International pairing to be under par, but lost 3&2; while the other two plays lost by one hole. Very disappointed in the International team's performance so far, especially on the greens which are much to fast for this sort of competition.

Campbell & Goosen to beat Sutton & Azinger +125 @ Moneyplays [same @ other UGS books]

Getting better I suppose! Campbell & Goosen were impressive in the morning, but the other two were equally poor in losing to the International team and setting up an exciting contest again. The afternoon reversed that with only the two American selections winning, but winning very convincingly. Need the International team to get within two points again to limit the losses on this tournament

Allenby & Franco to beat Cink & Triplett +138 @ Sportingbet [same odds @ Victor Chandler]
Looking for the rookie's bubble to burst in their first attempt at fourballs; Franco defeated Tiger alone yesterday morning, certainly capable in this match

Els & Price to beat Duval & Love +120 @ Victor Chandler
Winless Els will be better for not watching Singh's awful putting; with Duval's back not particularly suited to 72-holes in three days, he looks vulnerable

Weir & Elkington to beat Lehman & Mickelson +163 @ Paddy Power
One of yesterday's inspired fourball partnerships and Weir showed in the afternoon how good he can be when running with the adrenalin, they could cause yet another surprise result

Norman & Campbell to beat Sutton/Furyk +138 @ Sportingbet
An ideal fourball combination against winless ones; I'll take that @ '+' odds!

Yet another bold statement on this Presidents Cup! Been scraping egg off my face so far, but maybe not today?

Woods & Begay to beat Goosen & Singh -138 @ Surrey
Can't believe I can get such short odds on Tiger & Begay, even though a tie would lose. They looked much better yesterday afternoon and Singh really needs yet another putter [he has 1000 already!]

Have always had profitable weeks during matchplay events, but this one has been unbelievable. Wipeout on the final doubles day takes some topping! Will persevere - am determined to have at least one winning day of four

Final update: 3-3-0 and +0.17 units for the day; 6-15-0 and -13.06 units for the week

At last a winning day!! Horrible week for my plays as it was for the International team. Couple of late changes going against my Goosen & Azinger plays, but three conclusive wins with Roberts, Cink & Love, while Lehman left to too late and lost by just one hole. Naturally, lost the prop play on International team +2.5 points - they lost by eleven - and the outright play. Bad event, worth forgetting.