Update: This is getting embarrassing!!!

Went 1-2-2 for the final round; 4-9 and -6.93 units for the week :-( Don't remember a week like it!

Really thought we'd get it back today. When Azinger turned for home we were up by at least two shots in four of the picks and Furyk trailed Stricker by only one. Then came the multi-derailment at double-bogey junction!!!

Ah well, only two days until the next tournament. An awful lot of making up to do, but not too much time to dwell on it.

You can skip the next bit ...

ytd: 18-21; -7.12 units

Update: A miserable 1-3 for the 3rd round.

Zinger continued to impress and provided us with our only win. Franco lost by one, Mize lost by two and Singh lost by six! At least the remaining 72-hole picks improved; Furyk now leads Singh by three and Stricker now leads Lickliter by six. We were a day late with Tryba; there was no way he should have been a top-20 player this week; he collapsed with a 74 yesterday.

For the last round, there are as usual quite a few matchups to choose from and this is when the tournament, so the saying goes, starts. This is when the men are sorted from the boys. It should make the final round the easies to 'cap. It has been so in the past; on current form who knows?

Five picks for the last round, though four of them include two players we want to double up on. We like Stuart Appleby to continue and finish strongly; we like Scott Dunlap to do the opposite! The first Appleby pick is against John Huston. Appleby is just five shots behind Zinger which is well within reach provided the wind is present. The early scores suggest it is. A good final-day hunter: in the Houston Open last year he was 3rd going into the final round and won; in the Buick Challenge he was 2nd after day three and still ended the day closest to the winner, David Toms. Huston final round record is not so impressive. From three 2nd or 3rd place positions after the 3rd round, he never improved on them on the Sunday. This time last year he was 3rd going into the final round of the Sony; he finished 12th. A good record on this course, but better player when ahead.

We also tip Appleby to beat Jerry Kelly. Kelly's stubborn refusal to collapse yesterday denied us a win; instead it was Vijay who did the collapsing! The final round should be different. Five times last year Kelly was in the top-10 going into the last day; five times he finished in a lower position. At the Buick Challenge he started Sunday in 5th place and ended it in 25th; at the Tucson Open he started Sunday in 5th place and ended it in 45th. That's the sort of collapse we're looking for today!

We're going against Scott Dunlap not because he can't handle the pressure of a top-10 start to Sunday; he normally doesn't improve his position but he rarely collapses. Rather he is pitted against two extremely strong players, Tom Lehman and Jeff Maggert in such leading scenarios. Lehman was in the top-10 seven times going into Sunday in 1999; four times he finished strongly enough to be 2nd. He never won in 1999 but he did so earlier this season and we expect a very strong challenge today from only six shots shy of Zinger.

Jeff Maggert is an exemplary final-day contender. Four times he was in the top-10 going into Sunday; four times he improved his position at the end of the day! Although eight shots should be too much for Maggert to make up on Zinger, he should look good for yet another top-5 finish. Will be very surprised if Dunlap can be there.

Finally we have Jim Furyk to beat Steve Stricker. For the first time this year, and over quite a few picks, Furyk let us down in round 2. He shot a good score, but we still lost money. We expect to get that back today against Stricker. Neither player has a history of making the sort of charges needed to challenge for the lead today, but Furyk is our top pick for any event in Hawaii or Los Angeles and we think he'll close out with another top-10 finish. It was only a five-over-par front nine yesterday that had denied the chance of winning today. He finished strongly and should continue today. It was the opposite case for Stricker who made a storming start, only to run out of steam.

Staking plan:

Stuart Appleby to beat John Huston @ +100 with Bowmans

Stuart Appleby to beat Jerry Kelly @ -130 with Playersbet

Tom Lehman to beat Scott Dunlap @ -115 with Moneyplays Casino

Jeff Maggert to beat Scott Dunlap @ -145 with Bowmans

Jim Furyk to beat Steve Stricker @ -130 with Bowmans

There are four third round picks today. The first is Paul Azinger to continue his impressive golf and dispose of Jerry Kelly. Despite having missed the cut for the past two years in the Sony, he has the 2nd lowest lifetime scoring average at this course of the whole field [69.42 from 49 rounds behind Jim Furyk 69.12; minimum 16 rounds]. His low ball flight is ideal for the windy conditions and he showed so yesterday to deny us. Still think he go back to the pack, but it is doubtful that Kelly will be able to maintain his current fifth place; his best finish on Tour is 2nd way back in 1996.

The second is Carlos Franco to beat John Cook. Franco was very impressive last week once he got his game back after it was blown off course on the last 10 holes of day one. It took great resolve to come back from a double bogey at the first yesterday and in the afternoon winds complete the rest of the course in four-under-par. Currently in 16th position, he is only three shots out of 2nd and is well-placed to make a charge. Cook is moving in the opposite direction [2nd after day one] and with an atrocious 3rd round scoring average in 1999 [162nd], can't see him challenging the leaderboard today.

Vijay played some excellent golf on the first day and presumably did so again yesterday; didn't see any televised highlights of his morning round. His ball striking was excellent and though he continued to struggle on the greens everything else pointed to another top-10 finish. We're doubling up on Kelly dropping out of his current 5th place; if he does as he should it should be a goo day!

The final 3rd round pick is Larry Mize to beat Sean Murphy. It may seem surprising to find Mize in the top-10 of a tournament, but he has never missed a cut here in 12 years! His lifetime scoring average is 69.78 and he ranked 2nd of the current field in 3-year scoring average at Waialae. Very impressive! It is surprising to find Murphy in the top-10 though. A top finish of 13th last year should a good indication that he will find life difficult in this company.

Staking plan:

Paul Azinger to beat Jerry Kelly @ -140 with Bowmans

Carlos Franco to beat John Cook @ -110 with William Hill

Vijay Singh to beat Jerry Kelly @ -130 with GoTo Casino, Moneyplays Casino or Enterbet

Larry Mize to beat Sean Murphy @ -120 with William Hill

Update: Tryba, you're killing me!

The man I went against as much as I could had a storming 65 yesterday. I pitted Glen Day against him and he shot 75 to miss the cut :-( I also pitted Jonathon Kaye against and he shot 71 to miss the cut :-(

Then Azinger defied all previous norms and stretched his lead still further. Furyk shot 3-under-par and lost by two. That's four 18-hole matchups I've lost in the past seven days and the worst score by any of the picks has been 3-under-par! Ouch! What paranoia?

Need the 72-holers to keep me afloat and at least they're ahead. Stricker leads by two, Furyk by one and Appleby won his matchup when Kendall missed the cut.

GoTo Casino have released their lines for the 3rd round. Some huge differences of opinion between them and the Euro books. For example, they make Azinger a -130 favorite to beat Joh Huston in the lead group; the worst price Zinger is with a Euro book is +120 with Sportingbet! Defintely worth checking out such inconsistencies!

Will make 3rd round picks later when more lines are available.

Will return later with review of day one and further look at round 2 matchups. But lines have just started to be released and one stands out: Jim Furyk [yes, we're riding that train again!] to beat Paul Azinger @ -110 with GoTo Casino. Our pre-tournament favorite against the runaway leader from the first round. Always look for the 1st round leader to come back to the pack in this scenario and we should profit from it!

The Sony Open in Hawaii

After last week's titanic battle, the Sony Open has the unenviable tack of following on. It is also the firs event of the year for the new recruits and after the 'names' of last week, it's back to the lesser lights of the Tour this week. It is also reflected in the matchups on offer; but normally that means there's better value to be found in them!

The course, Waialae CC, underwent drastic changes last year after John Huston took the course apart in 1997, setting a new 72-hole PGA Tour record along the way. The par was reduced to 70 (from 72) and course was considerably tightened. It suited Jeff Sluman's game perfectly last year and though there have been a few modifications to gradually restore the course back to its former self, a similar type of player will do well again this week. As Carnoustie and the British Open showed, tight fairways and seaside courses do not make a happy marriage. As long as the wind blows, and they will this week, that is enough to make a seaside course a stern test of golf.

There are a total of five 72-hole plays for the week, plus a further one for the 1st round. It was no great surprise that Five Dimes did not repeat their bonanza of matchups this week; in fact, they haven't even offered any matchups on the 1st round. Definitely back to the run-of-the-mills Tour events!

First up is Stuart Appleby to beat Skip Kendall. Having played in the Mercedes last week will be an advantage for all 21 players staying in Hawaii and Appleby is one of them. A good wind player, as would be expected from his swing and his stature, he has played in the Sony three times, finishing 9th, 16th and 31st. After a quiet winter, he should soon start to post those top-10 finishes again. This is the start of the year for Kendall and he will be hoping for a something better than the way he ended last year. The omens are not good: he has missed the cut at the Sony in two of the past three years and has only once finished inside the top-30. Too diminutive and not strong enough to cope with the trade winds.

The next two picks are strong go-againsts. The man in question is Ted Tryba. In eight attempts at the Sony he has missed the cut FIVE times. On the other three occasions he finished 66th, 74th and, amazingly in 1994, 6th. Despite him playing in the Mercedes last week - he finished a lowly 23rd - he really looks a good player to oppose. It is therefore a major surprise to find him a favorite in the two matchups on offer. In the first he is against Glen Day who was a solid selection for us last week and finished 8th. He has only played on this course twice before, in 1994 and 1995, and missed the cut both times. But he is a different player to then and is now well-suited to this tight track and its Bermuda greens.

The other Tryba matchup on offer involves Jonathon Kaye. He had a very impressive finish to the season - three top-10 finishes in his last six events - and he could well turn out to be a very underrated player by the line makers. Has played in the Sony twice before and performed competently, finishing 27th and 38th, and that would probably be enough to beat Tryba. He will do better; Tryba can do no worse!

Probably a good play for the futures, but we'd rather take the safer money and pit Jim Furyk against Vijay Singh. Furyk's record in Hawaii is superb - 18 under-par rounds from 22 attempts and a winner in 1996 [lost playoff in 1997]. The tightening of the course should suit him more than most and he looked in excellent form last week. His opponent is no pushover though. Vijay finished 8th last week, but his putting again looked suspect on the Bermuda greens. He's still on them this week. No course form to talk about; one top-10 finish in four attempts and 38th last year. If the winds get up, he'll get blown off-track again. If not, it should be a good battle to watch.

The final 72-hole pick is Steve Stricker to beat Frank Lickliter. Stricker had a season to forget last year, but a new season brings new confidence and he could burst back onto the leaderboard with a vengeance this week. His course form is very good - two top-10 finishes and a 14th place in five attempts - and he normally does better on tight courses. Lickliter does not. When the course was being murdered in 1997 he was 7th; when it bit back last year he missed the cut. Guessing player form is always a lottery at this stage of the year, but guessing their suitability to a particular course is much less so.

Finally, there is one 1st round matchup that meets the eye: Jim Furyk to beat John Huston - the 1996 winner against the 1998 winner. The reasons we like Furyk this week don't need to be repeated, but Huston is not one who will miss the cut. When the course was tightened in 1999 he made a decent defense of his title, finishing 12th, and he should perform reasonably well again this week. But he did not play last week which will be a big disadvantage and the week before he only finished 8th of 12 in the Williams World Challenge. A key factor will also be that they are playing at very different times. Huston will be playing in the afternoon when the trade winds will have a large effect on his score. Let's hope the wind blows!

Staking plan:

Stuart Appleby to beat Skip Kendall @ -145 with Bowmans

Glen Day to beat Ted Tryba @ +140 with PlayersBet

Jonathon Kaye to beat Ted Tryba @ +115 with Bowmans

Jim Furyk to beat Vijay Singh @ -118 with Centrebet

Steve Stricker to beat Frank Lickliter @ -145 with Bowmans

Jim Furyk to beat John Huston [1st round] @ -140 with Moneyplays Casino