St. Jude Classic

Played the week after the US Open, there is inevitably a weakened field on show and after the brutal conditions faced last week, it will not be a surprise if players opt to withdraw from this event and try to rebuild their game and confidence on the range. Another par-71, the course is not long, but this is definitely a specialist event. The course features a spongy type of grass called Zoysia, which sits the ball up on the rolling fairways.  This can cause a bit of difficulty with long iron approach shots, needing someone with course experience to play the shot. The rough is Bermuda grass which will ensure the ball will nestle down even if the rough is not long. There is an acquired taste to this course and the hot, humid conditions that greet the players this week. That said, scoring is always low and after last week's birdie-drought, this should make for more exciting viewing.

It is hard to look beyond Nick Price for this event, he won this event in 1993 and 1998 and has three other top-5 finishes in his thirteen appearances here. Of 34 rounds on this course in the 1990s, only two were over par [both 72s]. After an encouraging 'save' after his opening round last week, he should be full of optimism for this week and it is not a course on which his erratic putter will be too much of a penalty. With Victor Chandler offering 18/1 for Price, it's a good enough price for an e/w bet with VC offering 1/4 on the first five place [the other offer it on the first four only].

The second e/w prediction is on Stewart Cink, available also at 18/1 with Victor Chandler. Had a fine finish to last week's event and was a credible 16th on his only visit here three years ago. May not be enough experience on this course to be as strong a challenger as Price, but there can no doubting his current form and confidence. A worthy outsider may be Scott Verplank, for whom William Hill are offering 50/1, so again an e/w bet looks the best option. Has finished in the top-20 the last two years here and has steady, cut-making current form. Is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, so should be worth backing.

Early 72-hole plays:

Dudley Hart to beat Notah Begay -140 @ Bowmans [2 units]
Hands down the better player with good all-round stats, the weekend off should be a blessing for Hart as he prepares for this event. Has decent course form in last few years including 2nd place in 1997 when only a birdie-birdie-birdie finish by Greg Norman denied him his maiden Tour victory

Tim Herron to beat Notah Begay -110 @ WSEX [2 units]
Much the same story for Herron. Missed cut last week not a cause for concern and was 2nd last year only to a storming finish from Ted Tryba. Total of 36-under-par from three visits shows he's a course specialist as well

Kirk Triplett to beat Mark Brooks -111 @ Victor Chandler
Top-15 in four of last five visits for Triplett; missed cut in each of last three for Brooks. Course form will be important this week

Adding:

Tim Herron to beat Notah Begay -110 @ WSEX
Adding one more unit on this play - convinced it's as strong as they come for the given price

Stewart Cink to beat Craig Parry -143 @ Centrebet [2 units] [-145 @ Olympic]
Missed cut last year and little sign of any current form, even breaking into top-30, for Parry. Surprised to find these two in a matchup together

Scott Hoch to beat Billy Mayfair -155 @ Bowmans
I make this line to be -204 so I'll take -155 as good value. Mayfair has missed the cut here three times in the last five and has a high finish of 76th in the last eight weeks. In the same time, Hoch has had four top-20 finishes and has been top-20 in this event seven times from twelve attempts. Mismatch

Nick Price to beat Hal Sutton +130 @ Bowmans
Unbelievable odds - Olympic make Price the -120 favorite! Sutton is a great player in a weak field and so should do well, but last year's 6th place was his best at this event - six missed cuts in the 1990s is not the sign of a course specialist

Adding 72-hole play:

Kirk Triplett to beat Ted Tryba -125 @ Easybets [2 units]
He may be last year's champion, but Tryba is in shocking form at the moment. He was 37th last week, before that he had missed the cut five times since April and had a high finish of 67th!

Adding 72-hole plays:

Russ Cochran to beat Brian Watts +140 @ Dunes [3 units]
Totally the wrong player favored here - more than enough reason for me to finally fund my Dunes account! Two consecutive top-25 finishes for Cochran; just one all season for Watts

Kevin Sutherland to beat Steve Pate +130 @ Dunes [2 units]
As with Cochran above, wrong player favored. String of top-30 finishes this season for Sutherland and has been 6th and 20th in last two years in this event; Pate has not rediscovered the form that so evident at the Ryder Cup - three top-30 finishes from 16 events is not impressive [Sutherland is 11 from 16]

1st round plays:

Tim Herron to beat John Cook -130 @ GoTo [same price at Enterbet] [3 units]
Olympic go as high as -160 on the 72-hole version of this matchup; I agree with them, this should be very one-sided. Cook may have won this event in 1996 and have and two top-10 finishes recently, but they have been flashes in the pan - he's missed 11 cuts from 17 events this year. With 'Dumpy' set for a top-10 finish and playing out of the soaring heat and humidity tomorrow afternoon he should make a great start

Hal Sutton to beat John Huston -125 @ GoTo [same price at Enterbet]
Not a big fan of Sutton's this week, but the superior tee-time and the draining effect of last week's high finish on Huston are enough to convince me for a small 1st round play on this one

1st round update: 1-0 and +3.00 units

Herron was a two-shot winner over Cook even though he didn't make the best of the early morning conditions. For the 72-hole bet, he'll need to do better: he trails Notah Begay by four, whose decent performance so far could prove costly, he also leads Dudley Hart by six Not a good start for the banker bets, Kevin Sutherland also trails Steve Pate by four, but at least Russ Cochran leads Brian Watts by three. Elsewhere, Triplett trails Brooks by one, Cink trails Parry by one, Hoch leads Mayfair by three and Triplett trails Tryba by two. Sutton withdrew from the event before the off, so there is one void matchup. Currently standing 2-6-0 in the 72-hole plays

No 2nd round plays. Like the look of Russ Cochran +107 over Rich Beem @ Island Casino and Bill Glasson +120 over Billy Mayfair @ Moneyplays, but neither play reaches my wagering threshold.

2nd round update:

Should have made the plays on Cochran and Glasson, they both won at great prices! Of the 72-hole plays, three were closed out at the halfway cut. Cochran defeated Watts by thirteen and Triplett defeated Brooks by one, but Hart double-bogeyed his last hole to miss the cut by one - he lost to Begay by eight. To summarise the rest, Herron trails Begay by six, Sutherland trails Pate by nine, Cink trails Parry by three, Hoch leads Mayfair by five and Triplett trails Tryba by one. Slight improvement today with 72-hole plays now standing at 3-5-0.

Back with 3rd round plays in the morning.

3rd round plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Billy Mayfair -154 @ Sportodds

Stewart Cink to beat Doug Barron -150 @ William Hill [2 units]

Scott Hoch to beat Rich Beem -103 @ Sportbet [3 units] * HUGE SCALP AVAILABLE WITH BEEM +141 @ CANBET *

Michael Clark to beat Bart Bryant +107 @ Canbet [2 units] [+125 @ William Hill, but ties lose]

Stewart Cink to beat Frank Nobilo -124 @ Sportbet [3 units]

Russ Cochran to beat Joe Ogilvie -120 @ William Hill [2 units] [same odds @ Sportingbet]

David Peoples to beat Robin Freeman +105 @ Canbet [3 units] [+125 @ William Hill, but ties lose]

Nick Price to beat Steve Pate -120 @ Moneyplays [3 units] [same odds @ GoTo Casino, Island Casino and Enterbet]

After drought of choice yesterday, some extremely nice odds on offer today IMO

3rd round update: 4-3-1 and +0.00 units

On the plus side, Azinger defeated Mayfair by five, Cink defeated both Barron and Nobilo by one and Hoch defeated Beem by two. On the not so good side, Clark and Bryant tied, Cochran lost to Ogilvie by one, Peoples lost to Freeman by three and Price lost to Pate by four. Of the live 72-hole plays, Herron trails Begay by fourteen, Sutherland trails Pate by nine, Cink trails Parry by five, Hoch leads Mayfair by six and Triplett leads Tryba by two. Another small daily improvement with 72-hole plays now standing at 4-4-0.

4th round plays:

Robert Damron to beat Notah Begay -108 @ Sportbet

Russ Cochran to beat Glen Hnatiuk -125 @ Victor Chandler [2 units] [same odds @ Ladbrokes; -148 @ Canbet with ties push]

Russ Cochran to beat Steve Pate +105 @ Bowmans

Bob May to beat Chris DiMarco +110 @ Bowmans

Joel Edwards to beat Bill Glasson +131 @ Canbet

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Elkington -118 @ Sportodds

Final update: 5-1-0 and +5.36 units for the day; 14-8-1 and +5.60 units for the week

Today's winners were Damron by one over Begay, Cochran by one over Hnatiuk and by four over Pate, Edwards by one over Glasson and Triplett by seven over Elkington. A few that were very close, but they do average out over the season. The only loss was May by two to DiMarco. Thought May would hold on to win the event, has shown on the European Tour that he has the mental strength, but if the putts won't drop ...

The 72-hole plays were split 4-4, but not an impressive record on my three-unit banker bets Of the plays still to be decided today, Herron lost to Begay by sixteen, Sutherland lost to Pate by sixteen, Cink lost to Parry by five, Hoch defeated Mayfair by four and Triplett defeated Tryba by five.

Update on outright bets: 0-2 and -2.00 units

This is why I prefer betting on matchups! Payoffs on outright bets are very "lumpy" and you can have quite a losing streak before hitting a decent winner. At least I hope I will hit one! Price and Cink were never in contention and finished 25th and 33rd respectively. Verplank withdrew from the event before teeing off.