Final update: 2-2 and -0.10 units for the final round; 15-6 and +8.99 units for the week

Sweep on the 72-hole plays so with the 1st & 2nd round plays it was 10-1 = frustrating weekend!

3rd round update:

Split 3rd round plays 3-3 for small loss, though Sutton almost handed me back one of my losses! Still looking good for the week as a whole though. Four plays for the 4th round - rationale again can be best gleaned from comparison of matchup players in Tour-Tips ratings, leaderboard position and leaderboard change tables in Members Section. Probably need to win three of them for a ten-unit week!

Staking plan:

Jeff Maggert to beat Jim Carter @ -111 with William Hill

Fred Funk to beat Scott Dunlap @ -120 with Five Dimes [-111 with William Hill, but ties lose]

Colin Montgomerie to beat Ernie Els @ +110 with Moneyplays

Craig Parry to beat Lee Janzen @ +137 with William Hill

Three more plays to add for the 3rd round now that the Euro books are offering lines on virtually EVERY two-ball pairing today. To be brief, the basic rationale is playing a player who fell down the leaderboard yesterday against one who rose yesterday. The tendency for 'bounce back' is very strong - as can be seen from the 'leaderboard change' table - and is strongest for first two of these two-ball pairings. The other, Azinger and McCarron, is a pairing of two people who made enormous strides up the table to 10th place. But whereas McCarron has a strong history of 'bouncing back', Azinger seems to go from strength to strength and consolidate his gains.

In all three plays, the picks have tended to play much better when on their current position of the leaderboard, as shown by the 'leaderboard position' table. It's simply easiest to check it out.

Staking plan:

Mark Brooks to beat Fred Funk @ +120 with Sportingbet

Kirk Triplett to beat Joe Ozaki @ -111 with William Hill

Paul Azinger to beat Scott McCarron @ -110 [-116 after 2.5% tax] with BlueSq

2nd round update:

3-1 on 2nd round picks, the hardest round to cap IMO. So happy with that

The Tiger money train is still in runaway mode, we won't be seeing John Cook after today [nice prediction ] and Furyk kept himself firmly in the hunt. Only loss was spectacular: "Mike Weir to beat Chris Perry". Hahahahaha! On the 72-hole front, Calc missed the cut which provided two early winners, plus Lefty also missed the cut, so that's three winners of six at the halfway cut. In the others, Woods leads by six, Monty leads by four and Perry leads by one.

There are three early plays for the 3rd round, will maybe add some more when more lines become available tomorrow, primarily form the Euro books. The first of Len Mattiace to beat Fulton Allem who set the lowest score of the day. It is common practice to oppose the low round scorer on the following day and there is every reason to do with Allem. He has a terrible record when at such lofty heights at the mid-point of a tournament, as he was this time last year in the TPC. Twelve months ago he shot 67 in the 2nd round [sound familiar?], but then followed it with a 83 in the 3rd round and a 82 in the 4th! Steady Len Mattiace, an excellent Bermuda green putter, will coast this one!

Similarly it is fairly common practice to oppose the leader. Sutton played well to stay in front today, but over the weekend the natural tendencies to become defensive are overpowering. No such problems for Duval who is in the middle of the pack. For some it may signal a lack of interest, but Duval's record when in this situation on Saturday says not so. Over the past couple of years, when in this situation he has averaged an 'adjusted score' of 69.3 - ie. he has averaged 2.7 shots lower than the average score on each day - and a rise of 15 places on the leaderboard. He can play free of pressure, Sutton cannot.

The third is, yes, the inevitable and at a surprising price for Tiger, his lowest of the week. He is only -130 with GoTo against Lehman. Woods is currently 5th, a top-10 position he has been many, many times over the past few seasons. Over the last five times he has been top-9 after two rounds, his 'adjusted score' has been 68; over Lehman's past five times in the top-5 [he is currently 2nd] his 'adjusted score' has been 72, ie. no more than an average score for the day. He, like everyone else, will be looking over their shoulder giving Tiger the psychological high ground. That, more than his game, is keeping the Tiger money train speeding.

Staking plan:

Len Mattiace to beat Fulton Allem @ -115 with Moneyplays

David Duval to beat Hal Sutton @ +100 with the starnet books

Tiger Woods to beat Tom Lehman @ -130 with GoTo

There are four plays for the 2nd round, two of which gladly take advantage of the books providing matchups on players with split tee times, i.e. one playing in the morning when the conditions are generally better than for the other playing in the afternoon. Today it made a big difference; the weather is forecast to be much warmer with not as much wind but with no prospect of any rain until Sunday, these hard, fast greens will only get harder in the baking afternoon sun.

The two picks to take advantage of this are Jim Furyk to beat Lee Janzen and Fred Funk to beat John Cook. Furyk is ranked 3rd in the Tour-Tips ratings for this event and he/we can be very happy with his performance this afternoon. With excellent current form he can certainly capitalize on this start. For Janzen, his game is simply not at the same level as Furyk's and when he returns to the course tomorrow afternoon, the pressure of being 2nd overnight [Furyk is 15th] will be much greater. It will be hard enough to play the course, not the leaderboard as well.

In the other, Cook is contrast is ranked 126th in the Tour-tips ratings and if they're of any worth, then we shouldn't be seeing him after tomorrow. He has only achieved 35th place with his morning round, so he will be under pressure to make the cut first and foremost. Funk on the other hand will be less defensive as he has survived the horror day with his challenge intact; he is now in a position to post a decent score on the board and see if the afternoon players can match it. Big psychological edge to the morning player in these conditions of attrition.

The other two include Mike Weir to beat Chris Perry. Strange I should be opposing the 72-hole pick Perry - maybe it's just insurance - but he will be severely disheartened by the way he fell apart after four-putting the 11th. From putting for a share of the lead he has fallen to 59th and seven shots back. He is not out of the tournament, but he will need a fast start to restore his momentum. Weir also shot 76 and also had a triple-bogey, but it was on the 18th - his ninth hole - rather than Perry's which was on the 17th and penultimate hole. After demoralizing setback for Perry, but Weir had time to keep his tournament alive and he did so. Will be in a much better frame of mind tomorrow.

Finally, the inevitable. Tiger Woods. We took on Duval @ -150 and won today so the prospect of playing Billy Mayfair at the same price does look very enticing. Tiger has been awesome when on the shoulders of the leaders - last time he was in such a position after the first round he shot 66 in the Tour Championship; in the last five times he has been 5th-15th after the 1st round he has shot over five shots better than the average score for that day. Phenomenal! Just as Tiger is awesome, the others are in awe. Monty acknowledged this week that once Tiger had shot 69 on the first day, the mood in the locker room was of total resignation, "Now we're playing for 2nd place". On the Friday Tiger shot 64 and they were playing for 2nd place! Mayfair's current 2nd place will be a burden tomorrow and everyone looks behind them to see just when Tiger will overtake them so they can get out of the way. Formality.

Staking plan:

Jim Furyk to beat Lee Janzen @ -140 with Moneyplays

Fred Funk to beat John Cook @ -110 with GoTo, Moneyplays or PlayersBet

Mike Weir to beat Chris Perry @ -105 with Moneyplays

Tiger Woods to beat Billy Mayfair @ -150 with GoTo or PlayersBet

1st round update

Certainly happier than the players! Matchups generally doing well and those that aren't are close

Tiger won first round match over Duval by four - playing in the morning helped a great deal, while the other double-pick, Monty, showed great courage to bounce back from five-over just around the turn to finish at three. He leads Calc by six and trails Hoch by just two.

In the other two, Sutton leads Calc by twelve and Perry trails Triplett by one; quite a horrible slide after having had a putt for a share of the lead on the 11th, but four-putting! A triple-bogey six on the 17th didn't helk either!

Will post 2nd round plays as I find them.

The Players Championship

The strongest field of the year bar no event, one of the best courses on the Tour and the richest tournament in the world [$6 million]; this should be a memorable week   Tiger Woods should dominate this tournament like any other, but his best so far at Sawgrass is 10th last year. Duval for his part, is not the player he was twelve months ago and it is interesting to note that no-one has even been placed, let alone win, when being the defending champion of the TPC! With Love showing good form last week and with Westwood, Montgomerie, Lehman and Price all with excellent course form, maybe this will be more than a Tiger procession ...

The course is not long - less than 7000 yards - but it demands full concentration with water on every hole and most famously the island green 17th. The greens are large, undulating Bermuda greens and very slick. Jack Nicklaus once commented about Sawgrass that he had "never been any good at stopping a five iron on the hood of a car". The basic requirement is for a decent short game and this is shown by the course compatibility stats. When greens in regulation and putting average account for over 60% of the probability of a top-10 finish [1997-1999], this is something to take note of. The players with the best scoring average around this course have not been spectacular off the tee, but good iron players and putters. Maybe that's why Tiger has failed so far at Sawgrass, but his game is admittedly at a different level at the moment.

With such a huge array of matchups on offer for this tournament it is rather a daunting task to even begin capping; the Tour-Tips Ratings which correctly forecast the 1-2 last week should ease this matter and will be at the center of the selection process. On this basis, then Tiger should be a very clear winner of this tournament. For all his difficulties with his short game over the past few years, there really is no course up to him. To then find him only -130 against Duval is remarkable. Duval's putting is not good enough this week and as mentioned above, history is against him. Tiger is also -150 for the first round alone which looks more realistic and even then an understatement given the tee-times.

Second-rated is Colin Montgomerie. Here we will find better odds and so he is pitted against Mark Calcavecchia and Scott Hoch. Monty has the perfect game for this course: "fairways and greens" and when par is a good score, he is in his element. Putting to one side his missed cut year of 1998, he has broken par at Sawgrass in 14 of his last 20 rounds; a very impressive tally on this course. Much will depend on his putter. Not a bad putter, but he is very streaky at holing out from 10-15 feet. Not such a luxury for Calc who is one of the worst putters in the field. His excellent greens in regulation game has kept him alive in this tournament in the past, but this is little to suggest from this season's form that it can continue to rescue him on this course.

Much has probably been written about Hoch form in this event. In the last four years he has finished 19th, 2nd, 5th and then 6th last year. Certainly on recent course form he looks formidable, but like Calc his putter has been failing badly this year - currently joint 121st in the putting average stats with Calc - and his current form has hardly been spectacular. Fancy the run to come to an end at Sawgrass this year, though it is worthwhile noting when considering the 'horses for courses' angle that in the seven attempts at the TPC prior to that run he never made the weekend once!

Yet another who has struggled with the flat stick this season is Hal Sutton, but he is tipped to still have the upper hand over Mark Calcavecchia. Top-20 the last two years, including 4th last year, and with a string of decent but not spectacular finishes under his belt this year, Sutton should be more at home this week. Neither he nor Calc is likely to challenge for the lead this week given their troubles on the green, but Sutton should find his approach shots there more often and be more resilient to the penalties of this course. As a dog, this looks particularly inviting.

The last ones, briefly, include Jim Furyk to beat Phil Mickelson. Fairly similar in course form and general suitability to the course - Furyk the straighter hitter, Mickelson the better putter - but Furyk's win at Doral showed a steely resolve and to follow that with a 4th place finish the week after was an indication of, maybe, a move to a higher standard of golf. Mickelson's collapse on Sunday was evidence that he cannot remain at that higher standard of golf. Too easily frustrated by an inability to win, this will be seen this week when Lefty's impatience with the course will be his undoing.

The other is Chris Perry to beat Kirk Triplett. Early indications are that Triplett is having the year Perry had last year and Perry is having the one Triplett had last year, but this is the first major event of the year. The top-10 will be full of players with a history of winning tournaments and steely resolve; neither of which Triplett has got, but Perry has. He may not win this week, but a top-10 finish would be an important kick-start to his season. He has the game for this course and if he can't separate himself from the 'boys' this week, then maybe last year was the exception for Chris Perry. I don't think it will be.

Staking plan:

Tiger Woods to beat David Duval @ -130 with Gamblers Palace

Tiger Woods to beat David Duval [1st round] @ -150 with Five Dimes

Colin Montgomerie to beat Scott Hoch @ -110 with Five Dimes or Gamblers Palace

Colin Montgomerie to beat Mark Calcavecchia @ -140 with Moneyplays

Hal Sutton to beat Mark Calcavecchia @ +125 with the starnet books

Jim Furyk to beat Phil Mickelson @ -110 with SIA

Chris Perry to beat Kirk Triplett @ -110 with SIA