Tampa Bay Classic

A difficult inauguration for the newest tournament on the PGA Tour, it has to contend with much greater interest in the Presidents Cup which will take away its essential TV airtime. That said, the field is better than would expected for a new event under such circumstances. Fred Couples, Scott Hoch, Steve Flesch, Chris & Kenny Perry, Justin Leonard and Nick Faldo are more than just journeymen pros. If were not that there will probably be very few betting opportunities on this event, it would be the better (and safer) betting proposition than the Presidents Cup.

This is the first time that the Copperhead course at the Westin Innisbrook resort has been used for a PGA Tour event though it did host the JC Penney Classic last year. It is difficult to glean much information from a mixed doubles event, even though John Daly and Laura Davies won the event, as it was in the longer playing conditions of December. Importantly though the course has recently been lengthened to 7,280 yards while at the same time maintaining its extremely narrow fairways bordered by very tall pine trees. It is an undulating and testing course that will require good shot-making capabilities - as opposed to the courses used last week - and with Bermuda greens in use this week, Southern state players will tend to hold the advantage in that department.

The top two-ranked players this week are Scott Hoch and Justin Leonard. Both played in the JC Penney Classic and finished mid-table though for both it was one bad round that cost them a challenge for the title. Nevertheless, experience on the course will be useful. Hoch has been his usual ultra-consistent challenging but not winning self. His three starts in the last month have all yielded top-10 finishes in stronger fields than this week. Similarly Justin Leonard has been in good form for some time, including winning the Texas Open last month, though as with any swing change he has been struggling for consistency. Both players are not long off the tee, but both have good overall games outside of length. In an event difficult to cap, I think this will be more important than length.

The long-shot would probably be Kenny Perry, currently offered @ 66/1 by Sportingbet. He hasn't played since the PGA Championship in August so I will be hoping for an injury update, but if fit he is a match for any player in this field and certainly so until the greens. He is long and has very good greens in regulation stats. He should certainly be worth an e/w punt at those odds.

As ever, I will wait until the tee-times/injury problems are known before committing the final outright plays, but one 72-hole play does look good at this stage:

Scott Hoch to beat Lee Janzen -118 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Janzen is not the player he was and has only one top-10 finish this year compared to Hoch's three from the last three tournaments and seven this year in total

Adding:

Tim Herron to beat Rich Beem -110 @ SportingbetUSA
Opposed Beem successfully last week as his slipped out of contention and can't see him improving much beyond his standard mid-table position; for Herron, mid-table would be a disappointment and can see him performing much better this week

Craig Parry to beat Nick Faldo -118 @ Easybets
Popeye's game has been in good shape for a while and with two 12th place finishes in the last two weeks he should be riding high in confidence this week. Faldo has done well in Europe recently, but there he had the motivation of qualification for the Ryder Cup, being back in the States and Mark James' cancer announcement could have unsettled his game

Bob May to beat Fred Funk -118 @ Easybets
As good as May is in form, Funk is out of it. Successfully opposed him last week and on a long course can't see him challenging May

Outright plays:

Sticking with original three and especially encouraged to discover that Kenny Perry has been out of golf lately for family and not health reasons. That makes the 66/1 on him difficult to understand.

Scott Hoch 25/1 @ Victor Chandler or Paddy Power [e/w payable on first five places]

Justin Leonard 14/1 @ Victor Chandler or Paddy Power [e/w payable on first five places]

Kenny Perry 66/1 @ Sportingbet [e/w payable on first four places]

Adding 72-hole plays:

Craig Parry to beat Nick Faldo -115 @ Five Dimes
Adding another unit at better odds and without the ties lose scenario

Scott Hoch to beat Steve Flesch +110 @ Intertops
Two in-form players, but good odds and Hoch's greater accuracy off the tee should be important this week

Bob May to beat Fred Funk -118 @ Easybets
Adding another unit

Scott Hoch to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ Sportsinteraction
Adding another unit at better odds

Scott Hoch to beat Jeff Maggert -118 @ Easybets
Looked last Maggert's newly-discovered form was fading fast last week; brittle on confidence he should be worth opposing this week

Bob May to beat Skip Kendall -105 @ Sportfanatik and the Starnet books
May much the better player and in contention much more often; he should go close this week

Chris Perry to beat J.L. Lewis -120 @ Dunes
Another expected to go close, Perry should have a good edge over Lewis whose driving inaccuracy could be a problem on this course

1st round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Skip Kendall -125 @ Five Dimes

Craig Parry to beat Nick Faldo -115 @ Five Dimes

Bob May to beat Fred Funk -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Chris Perry to beat David Toms -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 2-2 and +1.60 units

Hit the 3-unit play as May beats Funk by four, while Parry beats Faldo by one. On the negative side, Ames loses to Kendall by five and Chris Perry loses to Toms by one. Trailing in the sole 3-unit 72-hole play, but ahead in the other six: Hoch/Janzen 4 down; Herron/Beem 6 up; Parry/Faldo 1 up; May/Funk 4 up; Hoch/Maggert 2 up; May/Kendall 3 up; Chris Perry/Lewis 6 up.

Not a bad day apart from the Presidents Cup. Will have 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Justin Leonard to beat Fred Couples -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Brad Faxon to beat Steve Pate -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Scott Hoch to beat Bob May -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Jones to beat John Huston -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

J.L. Lewis to beat Kenny Perry +100 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-1-1 and +6.00 units

A good day on the 18-holers, but no so on the 72-hole plays. The only loss on the round two plays is Lewis over Perry by four shots, but in the others, Leonard beat Couples by one, Faxon beat Pate by eight, Hoch beat May by two and Jones tied with Huston. All but one 72-hole play were winning after 18 holes, but of four plays decided at the cut, only two were winners: Herron beat Beem by seven and Chris Perry beat Lewis by ten. In the others, a very disappointing Hoch lost to Janzen by six in the three-unit plays and by four to Maggert.

Hoch was one of the outright plays, but the other two have a decent chance of success. Leonard fell away on his back nine to lie 37th, but only five shots out of a place finish, while 66/1 shot Kenny Perry is in 6th place, just four shots behind some less-than-secure leaders.

Waiting for the Euro books' two-ball lines before making 3rd round plays. Not too many attractive ones at the moment.

3rd round plays:

Bob Tway to beat Bob Burns -150 @ Surrey

Dudley Hart to beat Bob Friend -150 @ OddsWilliam Hill [2 units]

Frank Lickliter to beat Scott Gump -165 @ Intertops [2 units]

Craig Parry to beat Mike Hulbert -164 @ OddsWilliam Hill [2 units]

Mmmm! Strong taste of chalk today!

3rd round update: 2-2-0 and -0.50 units

Few selections that I liked, so not too surprising it was a losing day. Tway and Burns tied, but it meant a lost play with a Euro book, Hart lost to Friend by two, while at least Lickliter and Parry both won by three shots. On a better note, all three remaining 72-hole plays are now leading after 54 holes.

4th round plays:

Justin Leonard to beat Russ Cochran -130 @ Olympic [3 units]

Jeff Maggert to beat Russ Cochran -125 @ OddsWilliam Hill

Justin Leonard to beat Scott Gump -164 @ OddsWilliam Hill

Bob Tway to beat Tommy Tolles -115 @ Olympic

Final update: 3-1-0 and +3.75 units for the day; 15-9-1 and +11.08 units for the week

Three narrow but needed wins in today's plays: Leonard by one over Cochran and by two over Gump and Tway by one over Tolles. The only loss is Maggert who only tied with Cochran and that isn't good enough @ William Hill   Only two of the remaining three 72-hole plays were winners: Parry by five over Faldo and May by one over Funk, but Kendall shot 67 to overtake May by one. A good week on the event that I said was the "better betting proposition than the Presidents Cup" and I was right!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Both Leonard and Perry couldn't convert decent in-tournament positions and both finished out of the place finishes: Leonard in 14th and Perry in 27th. Hoch had missed the cut.