Texas Open

Last year this event coincided with the Ryder Cup and the effect on the field was obvious. This year there are no other distractions, but other than a return of Hal Sutton and Justin Leonard, who finished 1st and 2nd in 1998, the big name players have continued to stay away from this event. Not surprisingly these two comprise the top-two ranked players this week in a weak field.

Measured at 7001 yards, accuracy is paramount on this undulating course. Duffy Waldorf, the defending champion, was ranked 3rd in greens in regulation last year; Hal Sutton, the 1998 winner, was ranked #1 in greens in regulation that year. There have been a few small changes to the course: the fairways have been narrowed, while the rough has been reduced in acreage by a quarter, so there is little reason to expect a change in course compatibility this year. One important aspect this week is the greens. They may be among the largest on the Tour, but more importantly, it will be the first time in several months that the players will be putting on Bermuda greens. The change will favour the Southern state players.

As mentioned above, the top-two in this week's rankings are Hal Sutton and Justin Leonard. A resident of neighbouring Louisiana, Sutton will be at home with the playing conditions, very hot and of course, the Bermuda greens. He won this event in 1998, has had three top-10 finishes in the last six weeks and is 2nd in greens in regulation in this week's field to only Joe Durant. The European books generally had him at 7/1, but with Sportodds offering 12/1 the opportunity for an e/w play on Sutton is not to be passed up.

In terms of stats, Justin Leonard is not the player he was, but he has had three 2nd places in the past four months and 2nd place finishes in this event in 1995 and 1998. He looks an excellent prospect this week, though the e/w rather than the win-only play would seem to be the best call. With 15 of 16 rounds on this course under par, he shouldn't let us down at 14/1 with Victor Chandler or Paddy Power [Sportodds have him @ 16/1 but only pay the e/w bet on the firs four, not five, places].

The 3rd play is Bob May. Last week he disappointed as a selection and missed the cut. It has ensured a higher price this week and there is no reason why he cannot resume the run of top-5 finishes he had a month ago. Like Leonard, his 12-month stats mask a recent improvement in form - he has the lowest 8-week scoring average of the field by an incredible 1.29 shots over the second best, Hal Sutton - but his game is built around accuracy off the tee and his iron play in particular. The course should be ideal for him and he is available at 33/1 with Paddy Power.

Will have matchup plays in the morning.

72-hole plays:

Justin Leonard to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Sportsinteraction  [same odds @ Ladbrokes]
15 rounds of 16 under par for Leonard, whereas Franco has yet to play the course. Should be a decent enough advantage

Jonathan Kaye to beat Jay Haas -125 @ Sportsinteraction  [same odds @ Ladbrokes]
Haas may have a good record in this event but withdrew after the opening round last week whereas Kaye finished 2nd, looking for the momentum to continue

Steve Lowery to beat Jay Haas -111 @ Paddy Power [2 units]
Going against Haas again with someone in better current form and with good form on this course: top-25 in each of last three visits

Dudley Hart to beat Frank Lickliter -111 @ Sportsinteraction  [same odds @ Ladbrokes]
Looking for a fall-out from Lickliter after his temperament frailties were exposed on Sunday; in terms of ability, Hart should challenging this week

Bob May to beat Jonathan Kaye -118 @ Easybets
Have backed May to finish in the top-5, if so, should be able to get the 'middle' on Kaye

Bob May to beat Kirk Triplett -111 @ Victor Chandler
With no course form and a poor performance last week, Triplett is an easy one to oppose with May this week

1st round plays:

Kirk Triplett to beat J.L. Lewis -115 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Loren Roberts -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Adding:

72-hole plays:

Duffy Waldorf to beat Mark Brooks -120 @ Olympic [2 units]
Three missed cuts in his last four events and two missed cuts in his last three visits does not bode well for Brooks despite the change of greens surface

Tim Herron to beat Frank Lickliter -110 @ Olympic [3 units]
A former winner of this event and in much better form, Herron should win this one with ease

1st-round plays:

Stewart Cink to beat Carlos Franco -120 @ Five Dimes

Justin Leonard to beat Loren Roberts -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Lowery to beat J.L. Lewis -120 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-2-2 and -3.45 units

Disappointing first day with only Cink three-shot victory over Franco a winner. Roberts showed some mastery on the greens to kill to plays; he shot 64 to beat Sutton by six and tie Leonard at the top of the leaderboard. Triplett was edged out by one to Lewis who tied with Lowery in the remaining 1st round play. Of the 72-hole plays, two are ahead - Leonard by five over Franco and Waldorf by three over Brooks - but one not - Kaye by one to Haas - while the rest are all tied.

Will make amends tomorrow

2nd round plays:

Woody Austin to beat Mark Wiebe -115 @ DAS [2 units]

Barry Cheesman to beat Paul Goydos -103 @ DAS

Hal Sutton to beat Stewart Cink -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Tim Herron to beat Scott McCarron -125 @ Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Jerry Kelly -120 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-4-0 and -5.73 units

Geez! Three of four losses by a single shot, including both double-unit plays. Really have to make amends in the 3rd round now! Solitary win was Herron by four over McCarron, with the losses being Austin to Wiebe by one, Cheesman to Goydos by four, Sutton to Cink by one and Toms to Kelly by one.

Better news on the 72-hole plays though. Four were decided at the cut and all were winners: Kaye beat Haas by seven, Lowery beat Haas by four, May beat Triplett by four and Waldorf beat Brooks by eleven. The remaining plays are evenly mixed: Leonard/Franco 7 up; Hart/Lickliter 5 down; May/Kaye all square; Herron/Lickliter 2 down.

Of the outright plays, Sutton is a great disappointment and misses the cut, but Leonard stands 2nd and May 23rd, but only six shots behind the leader. Plenty of chance to make up for a frustrating first two days there.

3rd round plays:

Bill Glasson to beat Rich Beem @ Moneyplays

Tim Herron to beat Dan Forsman -125 @ DAS

Justin Leonard to beat Frank Lickliter -125 @ Moneyplays [3 units]  [same odds @ Island Casino, Sportbet & On-Line Casino]  * SCALP - Lickliter +135 @ Five Dimes *

David Toms to beat Ted Tryba -110 @ Moneyplays  * SCALP - Tryba +130 @ DAS *

3rd round update: 1-2-1 and +0.68 units

Not great capping, but can't complain when a profit is still made   Leonard beat Lickliter by five in the banker play, but elsewhere Glasson lost by three to Beem, Herron tied with Forsman for a small loss on the dead heat rule and Toms lost by four to Tryba. The remaining 72-hole are still in the balance with Leonard eleven ahead of Franco, but Hart four behind Lickliter and May one behind Kaye. In the three-unit play, Herron and Lickliter are tied in 5th place on the leaderboard. Looking for another of those famous Sunday collapses from Lickliter!

May lost ground on the race for a place, but Leonard shot 65 to take a two-shot lead over the rest of the field. With the outright selections standing 1st and 2nd on the European Tour, this could be a very good week

One early 4th round play:

David Toms to beat Carlos Franco -115 @ Five Dimes

Back in the morning with the rest.

Adding 72-hole continuation plays:

Steve Lowery to beat Steve Elkington -115 @ Olympic

Tim Herron to beat Dan Forsman -120 @ Olympic

Tim Herron to beat Frank Lickliter -115 @ Olympic

Final update: 2-2-0 and -0.35 units for the day; 11-12-3 and -5.25 units for the week

In truth, this week was a bit of a struggle. Had four winners out of four at the cut, but that was only high point in matchup plays. On today's plays, Toms beat Franco by four and Lowery beat Elkington by five, but Herron lost three to Forsman and six to Lickliter. Bad day to pick 'Dumpy' and got burned by Lickliter, his unusually good last round meant five shot defeats for Herron and Hart in the 72-hole plays. The other two were winners though: Leonard beat Franco by seventeen and May beat Kaye by two. Looking for a better week next week.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +6.75 units

At last! A winner on the PGA Tour! Have had numerous 2nds and other place finishes, but not a winner. Leonard was simply superb, beating last year's winning score by ten shots and worth the 14/1 shot. Bob May made a belated charge, but finished three shots out of a place win, while Sutton missed the cut a long time ago. Definitely a good week for the outright plays   Had both Westwood and Leonard at Victor Chandler; wish I'd made it a transatlantic double @ 112/1