Tour Championship

The PGA Tour season ends as it started: with a high quality restricted field of just thirty players. Whatever the excesses of the prize money for even finishing last, this is high quality golf on a high quality golf course and if this Sunday is half as enthralling as the first Sunday of the season at the Mercedes Championship, this will be an excellent way to close the PGA Tour season.

The home course of the legendary Bobby Jones was toughened five years ago in preparation for this event in 1998; the only time this course has been used for a PGA Tour event though it did host the Ryder Cup in 1963 and will stage the US Amateur Tournament next year. Consistently in the top-100 catalogues of US golf courses, it proved a difficult challenge two years ago. The fairways are generally wide, though some are lined by mature trees, with penal rough a factor in 1998. This year the rough has been made easier this year because of the dry weather, but as the course compatibility stats show, in 1998, it was the best iron players that fared well on this course. The winning score was only six-under-par and only four payers broke par. There is no reason to suspect otherwise this time around.

On top of the ratings is Tiger. His swing was still not looking at its best last week, but he will be better for a 3rd week of competitive golf and last week's failure to storm to victory on Sunday has given rise to an unusual situation of late - he can be bought for well in excess of even money! He may have only been 3rd last week, but he has won six of his last nine tournaments and 17 of his last 29 - that makes even money and above rather profitable over the last year or so. With Canbet offering as high as 7/5, it is not passed over for once.

The second outright play is David Duval. He has never finished worse than 15th in this event and won this event in 1997; on this course two years ago he finished 8th. He was not that impressive in the Presidents Cup, but matchplay is not his forte and this is a return to a course that he played many times [before the changes, admittedly] during his college days. At high enough odds for an e/w bet, he is a value play at 14/1.

Passing over Mickelson as the main challenger to Woods - he does not have a good record in this event and his iron play is not the best on view this week by some distance - and also passing over local boys Davis Love, who was consulted about the changes to the course for this event in 1998, but whose form is still rather suspect, and Stewart Cink who was affiliated here as well as being a regular during his Georgia Tech days, but disappointed on his only Tour Championship performance to date and does not really have the all-round game to challenge the best players on a consistent basis.

Instead, opting for rank outsider Jesper Parnevik to spring a 50/1 surprise. In a 30-man field, the chances of a place finish are good. He comes here after a long layoff and will be refreshed for this and the WGC event next week. At home on the tougher courses, he could surprise many and improve on his only Tour Championship performance so far, a 6th place finish at Cypress Creek in 1997. With Woods hopefully dominant again, the value lies more in a large price outsider for a place finish which is the first four places this week.

Outright plays:

Tiger Woods 7/5 @ Canbet

David Duval 14/1 @ Ladbrokes

Jesper Parnevik 50/1 @ Ladbrokes, though available generally

There are scalps still available simply because Intertops very rarely change their lines and their were some drastic changes in the LVSC lines yesterday:

Azinger +100 Olympic & Verplank +130 Intertops

Begay +125 Olympic & Roberts -115 Intertops

DiMarco +140 Olympic & Cink -120 Intertops

Weir -105 Olympic & May +110 Intertops

72-hole plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Notah Begay -110 @ Olympic
Don't expect to see either of these on the TV too much; but Calc should be able to gain a better mid-table finish than Begay whose form has not been particularly good for some time and has the worst putting stats and almost the worst greens in regulation stats of the field - he shouldn't play well this week

Chris Perry to beat Notah Begay -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Contrast Begay with Perry who has the 2nd best greens in regulation stats this week and is coming off a 13th place finish last week and was 4th in this event last year, though on a different but equally difficult course

Loren Roberts to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Intertops [2 units]
Excellent form for Roberts coming into this event, he will not win and the course is a little tough on the iron play for his game, but he will surely be on the fringes of a top-10 finish which I am counting on to be plenty enough to beat my go-against for the week

Stewart Cink to beat Chris DiMarco -120 @ Intertops
This line has rightly moved at most other books to create a nice scalp, but Cink is worthy of a unit at this price anyway. He was in great form at the Presidents Cup, as he was in the events running up to that event, and he has played this course more than any other player. A definite top-10 finish for Cink

Hal Sutton to beat Tom Lehman -111 @ Ladbrokes
Sutton won this event on this course in 1998; Lehman was 15th. He has missed a couple of cuts recently, but showed his renewed resolve at the Presidents Cup; Lehman hasn't even been playing enough to miss cuts and was not impressive in the Presidents Cup. I don't expect Lehman to figure at all this week

1st round plays:

Loren Roberts to beat Notah Begay -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Justin Leonard to beat Kirk Triplett -125 @ William Hill

1st round update: 1-0-1 and +2.00 units

Good day on the PGA & European Tour   Leonard and Triplett break par to tie for the first 18 holes, while opposing Begay looks to be a profitable play this week. Roberts beat Begay by six shots in the first round play. The 72-hole plays currently stand a nice 4-1-0 with Begay losing to Calc by four, to Perry by seven and to Roberts by six. Sutton leads Lehman by two and the only losing position is with the surprisingly poor Cink who trails DiMarco by two.

Back with 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Five Dimes

Tiger Woods to beat Ernie Els -150 @ Moneyplays   * SCALP - Els +200 @ Five Dimes *

Justin Leonard to beat Steve Flesch -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Kirk Triplett -110 @ Moneyplays

2nd round update: 4-0-0 and +5.00 units

Face-saving sweep as the PGA Tour plays cover today's losses on the European Tour   All four were decisive winners: Calc by ten over Begay, Tiger by six over Els, Leonard by three over Flesch and Singh by three over Triplett. Also an improvement in the 72-hole plays to now stand 4-0-1: Begay is losing to Calc by fourteen, to Perry by eighteen and to Roberts by nine. In the other two, Cink has now overtaken DiMarco and leads him by two, while Sutton is now tied with Lehman.

The outright plays are also looking good: 14/1 shot Duval leads, while Tiger is 2nd; Parnevik recovered to be in the fringes of a place position, but two late dropped shots sent him back to mid-table - the fatigue from his surgery that hurt him yesterday seems to be a serious problem.

Hope to have some 3rd round plays posted later tonight

3rd round plays:

Davis Love to beat Stuart Appleby -120 @ Moneyplays

Loren Roberts to beat Notah Begay -140 @ Five Dimes

Nick Price to beat Kirk Triplett -105 @ Moneyplays

3rd round update: 1-2-0 and -1.60 units

First losses of the week and deservedly so with Roberts who lost by five to Begay, but Love had five bogeys in the last eight holes to lose to Appleby by three, a pattern all too familiar with my European Tour plays these last two days. In the other play, Price beat Triplett by two. A deterioration in the 72-hole plays as well as Sutton looks a near certain loss, he trails Lehman by six. Elsewhere, Begay is still looking a good money-maker as he trails Calc by eleven, Perry by thirteen and Roberts by four, while Cink and DiMarco are tied.

Back with 4th round plays soon.

4th round plays:

Loren Roberts to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat John Huston -125 @ Moneyplays

Loren Roberts to beat Franklin Langham -120 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Davis Love to beat Kirk Triplett +125 @ On-Line Casino [3 units]

Tiger Woods to beat Vijay Singh -150 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Scott Verplank to beat Kirk Triplett -120 @ Olympic [2 units]

Final update: 3-2-1 and +0.20 units for the day; 12-5-2 and +9.49 units for the week

Lackluster weekend performance after a great first two days. Three good-size wins and two narrow losses made it a break-even day. The results: Roberts/Begay 5 up; Sutton/Huston 4 up; Roberts/Langham 1 down; Love/Triplett all square; Woods/Singh 4 up; Verplank/Triplett 2 down.

Little change on the 72-hole plays as they finish 3-1-1, with opposing Begay being the source of the three victories. He lost to Calc by nineteen, to Perry by twenty and to Roberts by nine. Cink and DiMarco again finished the day tied, though DiMarco came home in 31   while Sutton lost to Lehman four. Still a good week overall though.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Back Tiger for the first time all year and he finishes 2nd. Back Duval and he has a 3rd round collapse in Tiger's company when leading the tournament; he finished 6th. Parnevik finished well down the field, but it was not until after the play was made that the true hangover from his surgery was know. Apart from Jesper, had a good run for my money, but no return at the end of the end.