The US Open

Set against the spectacular Monterey Peninsula, on a parcel of land described by the Scottish author and traveler Robert Louis Stevenson as, “the most felicitous meeting of land and sea imaginable”. Here lies the legendary Pebble Beach Links. Christened by Bob Hope as “Alcatraz with grass”, that description may be the more dominant one come Sunday evening. The second Major of the year and a course every bit as spectacular as for the first, albeit the complete opposite to Augusta National.

Fairways have been trimmed to 30 yards wide in line with US Open tradition, though the rough has been allowed to grow to 3 inches rather than the customary five. With only tiny greens to aim for, it is a steep enough challenge. The par has been reduced to 71 by converting the 2nd from an easy par-five into a brutal 484 yard par-four and several holes have been lengthened. This is a very different course to the one on which Tiger produced some outstanding target golf to saturated greens in February to seize the AT&T; now the greens and fairways are firm and the greens are about two feet faster on the Stimpmeter (about 10.5 feet).

History suggests that the winner will be U.S. born or have long time experience there. The Europeans do not travel well, other than to Augusta, and apart from Monty who has an excellent record - it is his best chance of a Major - there is little reason to expect a change from this pattern. Sergio's swing is not suited to windy conditions as Carnoustie showed last year. Clarke and Westwood are on top of their games, but Clarke has missed the cut in five of his nine American adventures since the start of last year and apart from finishing 10th at last year's US Open, his best was 36th in the reduced field of the WGC-NEC. Westwood's recent record is a little better with a 6th place finish at last year's Masters, but three cuts from nine American events since the start of last year is not in Tiger country.

As for Tiger, well, he did win the AT&T earlier this year at Pebble Beach and has been in the top-20 in the last three US Opens, but the odds on him to win are ridiculously small and can only get larger as the tournament progresses. Instead, better value should be found with Davis Love and Tom Lehman and Jesper Parnevik, all priced at 25/1 at Sportingbet and worth an e/w bet. Performances the week before a Major can be discounted - just as well for Love and Lehman - rather they have very good records at Pebble Beach, the US Open and Majors in general.

Love is a regular at Pebble Beach and has a host of top-20 finishes there, including a 3rd and a 4th place finish, he has been in the top-20 in four of the last five US Opens and been in the top-10 in eleven of the last 20 Majors, including winning the 1997 US PGA. Lehman has been in the top-10 in four of his last seven visits to Pebble Beach, he has been in the top-5 in four of his last five US Opens and won the British Open in 1996. Parnevik has been in the top-20 in three of his four visits to Pebble Beach, has four top-10 finishes in the likewise wind-swept British Open as well as finishing in the top-20 in the last two US Opens. Finally, a rank outsider for whom Sportingbet are offering at least 100/1 is Mike Weir - as high as 11th in the all-round ranking stats, he has progressed beyond a label of 'promising player' and should perform much better than those odds suggest.

That's all for now. Back with matchup plays in the morning.

Have just added a table indicating how well the current field has finished and scored in the Majors over the past three years. Should provide some clues as to who rises for the big occasion and who freezes.

Noteworthy from this table is the fact that Stuart Appleby has missed the cut in the last SEVEN Majors; Ernie Els has an excellent overall Majors record but has missed the cut twice in the last four Majors; Bob Estes' record is very consistent and much better than for ordinary Tour events; Jim Furyk, Davis Love, Colin Montgomerie and Nick Price all have extremely impressive Majors form; though Jose Maria Olazabal has missed the last FOUR cuts; and Tiger Woods has finished in the top-10 in six of the last seven Majors.

Ninety-nine matchups currently on the list - and the number will rise a lot more today! Time for some fun, so here's the early 72-hole plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Easybets
Both have very poor recent history in the Majors, but Olly's collapse last Friday will have done little for his confidence and this is not the course for a duck hook!

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ Easybets
The man who shot 58 to qualify! A decent finish last week under the circumstances as his mind would have been on this event - looks set to continue his run of high finishes this week. Form no problem for Campbell, but not convinced he will travel well to the States - only other visit was a lackluster 1st round defeat in the WGC Matchplay

Greg Norman to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]
Continuing in the same theme, and with a 4th place finish last week for Norman, it was a timely boost and feel confident Norman will make it Sunday, though not the leaderboard

Stewart Cink to beat Darren Clarke -109 @ Canbet
Decent record in this event and has played this course, ample enough reason to back Cink over Clarke who is expected to disappoint

Justin Leonard to beat Darren Clarke -110 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]
As above, but with Leonard having an even better record in this event, on this course and in Majors generally than Cink

Jesper Parnevik to beat Darren Clarke -125 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Already outlined why I'm tipping Parnevik as an e/w bet this week, so definitely worth two units on this one!

Hal Sutton to beat Darren Clarke -111 @ Easybets
Last one against Clarke. Had a loss of form a month ago, but the US Open will bring the best out of Sutton again. Very impressive Major record in the last twelve months and again should be top-20

Nick Faldo to beat John Daly -115 @ Olympic [2 units]
Faldo should make the cut - if he does that he should win. Even if Daly does make it to the weekend he can always be counted upon to shoot 80 when not in contention.

Glen Day to beat Billy Mayfair -110 @ Victor Chandler
While not having a particularly good Majors record, he does have much better current form and has produced the goods on this course. A midfield battle at best, but Day should definitely make it to Saturday

Nick Price to beat Sergio Garcia -111 @ Ladbrokes [-120 at SIA and Olympic]
For all that his winning days may now be limited, he still appears on every Major leaderboard and will do again this week. If it blows, this could be very straightforward

Tom Lehman to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Easybets [2 units]
Reasons for taking Lehman already outlined - really don't see much of a European Tour challenge this week

Davis Love to beat Colin Montgomerie +100 @ Victor Chandler
Monty has the best chance of those making the flight over the Atlantic, but Love's credentials in terms of Majors, this event and this course are not easily matched. Wrong player favored here

Mike Weir to beat Shigeki Maruyama -111 @ Ladbrokes
My very dark horse for an e/w finish, though many other books have Weir at 50/1. Does have course experience which Maruyama does not, he has impressed in recent Majors and should do again this week

Jesper Parnevik to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Ladbrokes
Not much left to be said here - Parnevik should be an excellent bet for the Top European [+165 at Sportodds for just Continental Europe]

In sum, pretty obvious that I don't think it will be a good week for the Europeans and that the best value matchups lie with Euro books whose lines will heavily feature these Euro players. Back soon with a look at the early props.

Prop plays:

Winning Score < 282.5 -130 @ the Starnet books
Everything will depend on the wind, but the current forecast is good and even at Carnoustie the winning score was 290 - it won't be anywhere near as brutal as that even if the afternoon winds do blow. Without the wind, could see 270 being broken.

Tiger Woods 1st round score <72 +100 @ the Starnet books
Again, wind is the major factor, but with an early tee off time and the conditions set to be fine, he shouldn't be over par if he is half the player he thinks he is

David Duval 1st round score <73 +100 @ the Starnet books
Early tee-time and good weather conditions - need to shoot 3-over-par to lose this one. Can't see it

Phil Mickelson 1st round score < 73.5 -115 @ the Starnet books
As with Duval

Mark O'Meara to miss the cut +170 @ Centrebet
Has missed three of last four 'Major' cuts, two of last three on this course and in last event. Extremely attractive odds for an otherwise 50-50 chance

Have leans on Appleby, Funk and Olazabal also missing the cut, but with so many non-Tour pros in this event, could be hard to crash out on Friday.

Adding 72-hole plays:

Bernhard Langer to beat Thomas Bjorn -110 @ Intertops [2 units]
Bjorn's driver and putter much too errant for this event; Langer will make it to the weekend. Should be easily enough

Mike Weir to beat Carlos Franco +105 @ Intertops [2 units]
Errant driver and I'm not convinced Franco's a good wind player, my dark horse should be top-20 this week to beat Franco

Mike Weir to beat Lee Janzen -111 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Another two units on Weir. At his best on US Open-style courses, but I don't think Janzen is half the player he was two years ago

Adding 1st round plays:

Stewart Cink to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Enterbet [3 units]
Have already picked this matchup in the 72-hole plays. Very unusual to stake 3 units on it, but Cink tees off at 8.20am and Clarke at 12.30pm - hotter, harder and windier.

Jim Furyk to beat Vijay Singh -110 @ Moneyplays
Not one of my 72-hole plays, but times are all important again. Furyk out at 8.40am and won't be fazed by playing with Woods; Singh out at 1.20pm - as the Masters champion he should be in the better group playing one ahead of him!

Jesper Parnevik to beat Justin Leonard -110 @ Moneyplays
Parnevik is at least -125 to win this over 72 holes. Both have morning times, maybe the linesmaker think Parnevik will wilt in Tiger's company. I can't see it - looks more like they'll fire off each other and three sub-70 rounds is my prediction

Jesper Parnevik to beat Colin Montgomerie -113 @ GoTo [2 units]
If he can beat Leonard tomorrow, he will certainly beat Monty who has a late tee-off time

Jesper Parnevik to beat Vijay Singh -120 @ Bowmans
Obvious extension of the above three bets. Convinced it will play harder in the afternoon and Tiger & co. will make the most of it in the morning

Adding prop plays:

Jim Furyk 1st round score < 74 -120 @ Olympic
The wind would have to blow to make someone with such an awesome Majors record shot 4-over-par in the 1st round to lose this prop

Tiger Woods to be in Top-10 after 1st round +120 @ Bowmans
Since Tiger famously found his game last May in Germany, he has played eighteen PGA Tour & Major tournaments and been in the top-10 after 18 holes thirteen times. Good enough ratio for me!

Just the one play in an otherwise chaotic 2nd round:

David Duval to beat Bobby Clampett -160 @ Island Casino [2 units]
For all that Duval disappointed yesterday, pride will be too much of a factor for him to fade away today. Can't believe that self-confessed once-a-month golfer, despite local knowledge, can repeat yesterday's round. Odds much lower here than elsewhere and much lower than I would make them

1st round update: 4-4-2 and -2.55 units for the day

1st round score wins on Woods, Mickelson and Furyk, but lose with Duval. Tiger very much in the top-10 after 1st round! But very poor 0-3-2 on 1st round matchups, including very confident play on Cink over Clarke - a six-shot loss. Singh comes back in the morning to rescue round and inflict two-shot defeat to Furyk and three-shot defeat to Parnevik. Other two Parnevik plays tied.

To be brief, the 72-hole plays stood after the 1st round as such: Appleby/Olazabal - down five; Maruyama/Campbell - down six; Norman/Campbell - down six; Cink/Clarke - down six; Leonard/Clarke - down two; Parnevik/Clarke - down two; Sutton/Clarke - up two; Faldo/Daly - win [Daly WD]; Day/Mayfair - up six; Price/Garcia - down two; Lehman/Westwood - all square; Love/Montgomerie - down two; Weir/Maruyama - up two;  Parnevik/Westwood - down two; Langer/Bjorn - down seven; Weir/Franco - down two; Weir/Janzen - down five. Hmmm, currently standing 4-12-1 in the 72-hole plays It can only get better!

3rd round plays:

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Thomas Bjorn +120 @ the Starnet books

Vijay Singh to beat Nick Faldo -130 @ the Starnet books [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Island Casino or Sportbet

Belated 2nd round update: 1-0 and +2.00 units

Duval defeated Clampett by six shots for easy win. The following 72-hole plays were decided at the halfway cut: Appleby/Olazabal - lost by ten; Maruyama/Campbell - lost by nine; Norman/Campbell - lost by eleven; Parnevik - lost by seven; Day/Mayfair - won by one; Love/Montgomerie - lost by seven; Weir/Maruyama - won by nine; Parnevik/Westwood - lost by eleven; Langer/Bjorn - lost by seventeen. Pretty disastrous, though the remaining live matchups are fairing quite well.

3rd round update: 1-2 and -2.55 units

Jimenez wins by six, but Singh's 80 means he's a four shot loser to both Faldo and Olazabal The remaining 72-hole plays may yet save the day: Cink/Clarke - up eight; Leonard/Clarke - up eight; Sutton/Clarke - up four; Price/Garcia - up two; Lehman/Westwood - down four; Weir/Franco - all square; Weir/Janzen - down one.

4th round plays:

Tom Lehman to beat Thomas Bjorn -145 @ Bowmans [3 units]

Loren Roberts to beat Michael Campbell +110 @ the Starnet books [2 units]

Stewart Cink to beat Retief Goosen -125 @ William Hill [same odds at Sportingbet and Centrebet] [2 units]

Richard Zokol to beat Keith Clearwater +110 @ Centrebet

Fred Couples to beat Nick Faldo -115 @ GoTo [same odds at Island Casino and Sportbet]

Kirk Triplett to beat Jimmy Green -120 @ William Hill

Lee Janzen to beat Ted Tryba +100 @ Sportodds [2 units]

Phil Mickelson to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -130 @ GoTo [same odds at Island Casino and Sportbet]

Loren Roberts to beat Nick Faldo -120 @ WWTS

Tom Lehman to beat Thomas Bjorn -155 @ WWTS [3 units]

4th round update: 5-4-1 and +6.45 units for the day; 20-19-3 and +3.00 units for the week

The results on the 4th round plays were: Lehman/Bjorn - won by four [played twice by mistake - WWTS lines were for tournament, not just 4th round, so mighty relieved to make a six-unit play!]; Roberts/Campbell - won by one; Cink/Goosen - won by one; Zokol/Clearwater - won by four; Couples/Faldo - lost by two; Triplett/Green - tied, but lost wager with William Hill; Janzen/Tryba - tied; Mickelson/Olazabal - lost by one; Roberts/Faldo - lost by one

Of the remaining 72-hole plays, all bar one won: Cink/Clarke - won by ten; Leonard/Clarke - won by eight; Sutton/Clarke - won by six; Price/Garcia - won by three; Lehman/Westwood - lost by six; Weir/Franco - won by thirteen; Weir/Janzen - won by five. Of two remaining props, the winning score was easily less than 282.5 [win] and O'Meara did manage to make the cut by two [loss].

Glad to make a profit on a week in which I got it completely wrong about the Europeans' chances!!

Looking for a more relaxing week next week at the St. Jude

Update on outright bets: 0-4 and -4.00 units

Yikes! Said Tiger's odds would get larger during the tournament. Wrong! Two of four selections, Love and Parnevik, missed the cut spectacularly, while Lehman had been briefly in contention on day two, but fell back to 23rd overall and Weir improved too late to reach 16th place