PGA Championship

This event, which has always been the least respected of the Majors, got its dream finale last year with the last-day tussle between Sergio and Tiger. This event has something to live up to and it certainly does not want a 15-shot winning stroll for Tiger. He will try to become only the 2nd person to win three Majors in one year. He was totally dominant at Pebble Beach, in a class of his own at St Andrews, but in his last two PGA Tour starts he has finished out of the top-10. He is also playing with Jack Nicklaus whose Major performances this year have been memorable for their emotion inside and outside the rope; it will not be an easy task to concentrate under such circumstances for the first two days. No one has successfully defended this title since the war and of the last twelve PGA Championships, ten of them have been won by first-time Major winners. The omens are not good for number three.

This is unusual for a Jack Nicklaus-designed course, the stock shot is a soft draw not a high fade. But as with any PGA Championship, as it was in 1996 on this course, it is the ball-strikers who play well in this tournament. Tiger Woods, Davis Love, Steve Elkington and Nick Price (twice) have been winners in the 1990s. The fairways have been narrowed slightly from 1996 and the rough is long and thick, quite different from last time. It was a good test last time - winning score 11-under-par - and it will be a sterner test this time. The greens are small by PGA Tour standards and this will be no putting contest.

The three outright plays for this event are Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh and Nick Price. Furyk's game was as good as anyone's last week - he only dropped one shot in the entire 72 holes. Such ball control will be more rewarding this week and he fits the trend play of a first-time Major winner. On this course in 1996 he was only 5 shots behind Mark Brooks and has had two top-20 and two top-10 finishes in this event over the past five years. Destined to be a Major winner, like Davis Love three years ago, this could be the week to break that famous duck. Second choice is Vijay Singh. He is also playing with Tiger and Jack Nicklaus on the first two days, but his ego is less likely to be affected by the adoration for Jack. He was 4th in 1994, 5th in 1996, 1st in 1998 and together with being poor in the odd years, the trend angle looks good! But more realistically, he was very unlucky in 1996 when he found a horrible lie on the last hole when he needed a par to force a playoff and took six. Now he appears to have a putter he is comfortable with, he could be the surprise leader from that three-ball.

The third pick is Nick Price. Already a two-time winner of this event, he like Vijay has found new comfort with the flat stick and his putting stats have been improving of late. A wonderful record in this event, including 4th and 5th the last two years and 8th at Valhalla four years ago, be could be a very strong challenger and with Woods in the field he has attracted some very long odds. He is currently 66/1 at Ladbrokes which cannot be passed over. The best prices for the other two are 40/1 for Furyk at Paddy Power [the pay e/w bets on the first five places not the first four as do DAS and Ladbrokes who also quote 40/1] and 33/1 at DAS and Sportingbet for Vijay Singh. Given that I'm not yet convinced this will be Tiger's week, these are all e/w bets at outright prices, not the 'without Tiger' prices which are widely available.

Will have matchup/prop plays up later today.

72-hole plays:

Jim Furyk to beat Darren Clarke -124 @ Canbet [2 units]
Top-tip to win against someone capable, but ill-suited to this week's event - missed last two PGA cuts - and hot, humid weather

Nick Price to beat Darren Clarke -111 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]
Just as above

Scott Hoch to beat Nick Faldo -105 @ Bowmans [2 units]
Can't believe they have Faldo the favorite here! Hoch is good on the accuracy stakes and always seems to perform better in these weather conditions

Franklin Langham to beat Paul Lawrie -118 @ Canbet
Langham has made a spectacular improvement in all aspects of his game this year, now inside the top-50 in all the major stats. To much for Lawrie outside his home patch

props:

Tiger Woods to NOT be leading after the 1st round -140 @ Grand Central [3 units]
We had this one for the US Open and it was profitable then, no reason to expect any different this time

Tiger Woods to record a bogey o higher in the 1st round -130 @ Grand Central [2 units]
Too difficult a course for even Tiger to routinely avoid the pitfalls

Jim Furyk to finish below 14.5th place -115 @ Bowmans
Expect him to finish much higher

Davis Love to finish higher than 17.5th place -135 @ Bowmans
Really struggling with his game since swing changes a few months ago

Adding:

Chris Perry to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ SIA
Presuming there won't be too much of a let-down after last week's loss. If not, then Perry and most importantly for him, his putter, are in a rich vein of form that finally corresponds with his all-round stats

Kenny Perry to beat Brad Faxon -110 @ Paddy Power
Lost in a playoff to Mark Brooks here in 1996, but has also got a good record since in this event and on the PGA Tour this season. Faxon can putt, but at the opposite end of the Greens in Regulation stats to Perry and this will not be a putting contest

Bill Glasson to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Olympic
If fit, Glasson should be a good contender for this title. Franco's game has gone off the boil of late and his stats do not show he currently has enough control of the ball for this course

Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia -111 @ William Hill
Top-tip versus someone suited to the course & condition. Sergio is at his best in hot weather and on very fast greens, his greens in regulation stats suggest he will have too many par-saving putts to make this week

Props:

Scott Hoch to make cut +100 @ Centrebet [3 units]
6th, 29th, 21st the last three PGAs; 15 of 19 cuts made this year. Anyone understand this line

Scott Verplank to make cut +100 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Missed the cut at the British Open & Western Open last month, but bounced back with finishes of 12th & 11th in last two events to make it sixteen of last eighteen cuts made; has also made the cut in the PGA in previous attempts

1st round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Bob Estes -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Scott Hoch to beat Nick Faldo -110 @ Gamblers Palace [3 units]  [same odds @ Bowmans]

Lee Janzen to beat Nick Faldo -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Tom Lehman to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -145 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Adding more props:

Tiger Woods to birdie the par 5 18th in all four rounds +1400 @ Paddy Power
This is reachable in two for virtually the whole field; it was ranked the 2nd easiest hole in 1996 with an average of 4.71 shots; 37% of all scores were birdies on this hole in 1996. He should certainly birdie it twice, so worth a punt at those odds. Just so long as he doesn't go birdie-birdie-birdie-eagle!!

John Daly, Jack Nicklaus & Ben Crenshaw to miss the cut +131 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Crenshaw has missed every Major cut in the last three years and nine from ten on the PGA Tour this year; Daly has missed all three Major cuts this year and thirteen from nineteen on the PGA Tour this year; Nicklaus has missed the last two Major cuts and five from seven on the PGA Tour this year, plus his mum has just died

Jim Furyk, Nick Price, Vijay Singh & Phil Mickelson to make the cut -102 @ Centrebet
The three outright picks plus Lefty to cover the unit on the Woods & the 18th prop. None have missed more than two cuts in the last twelve Majors and only Furyk has missed a PGA cut in the last four years [1998], but he has been 17th, 6th and 8th on the other three occasions

1st round update: 3-3 and +2.90 units

2nd round plays:

Jim Furyk to beat Darren Clarke -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Phil Mickelson to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Island Casino  [same odds @ Sportbet, Enterbet & On-Line Casino]

Jim Furyk to beat Hal Sutton -110 @ Five Dimes

Colin Montgomerie to beat Sergio Garcia -120 @ Five Dimes

Jesper Parnevik to beat Sergio Garcia -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Loren Roberts to beat Sergio Garcia -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Lee Westwood to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -125 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat Rocco Mediate +100 @ Island Casino  [same odds @ Sportbet, Enterbet & On-Line Casino]

Jeff Sluman to beat Mark O'Meara -110 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 7-6-0 and +2.40 units

A record of 5-0-0 on the 2nd round matchups that DIDN'T include Garcia! Not a good day to be big against the young Spaniard He burns me on all four plays I have against him, though in fairness none of my picks shot under par against him The results: Furyk/Clarke 1 up; Mickelson/Clarke 2 up; Furyk/Sutton 4 up; Montgomerie/Garcia 3 down; Parnevik/Garcia 5 down; Roberts/Garcia 3 down; Westwood/Garcia 3 down; Chris Perry/Jimenez 3 up; Sluman/O'Meara 3 up. The Triplett/Mediate bet was voided when Mediate failed to tee off in the 2nd round.

The 'cut' props went 2-2 for a small profit though. Hoch didn't just made the cut, he's almost on the leaderboard and Verplank had a very poor back nine to miss the cut by two shots. The Daly/Nicklaus/Crenshaw parlay was successful - Crenshaw withdrew after the 1st round and Daly's collapsed on the last nine holes, but Jack came within an inch of holing his 3rd shot on the 18th to make the cut. Phew! The other parlay lost when both Price and Singh missed the cut.

Two 72-hole plays were decided at the cut. hris Perry beat Michael Campbell by eleven shots, while Nick Price will lose to Darren Clarke by nine shots unless he can eagle the last hole when he returns this morning and make the cut. The standings in the others are: Furyk/Clarke 5 down; Hoch/Faldo 4 up; Langham/Lawrie 3 up; Kenny Perry/Faxon 1 down; Glasson/Franco all square; Furyk/Garcia 2 down. Neither the Furyk nor the Love finishing position prop looks good right now, but Tiger's made 2 birdies on the 18th so far, just need two more ...

Early 3rd round plays

Jim Furyk to beat Lee Westwood +100 @ Carib

Lee Westwood to beat Jean van de Velde -130 @ GoTo Casino

The field to beat Tiger Woods +150 @ Gamblers Palace [3 units ... plus the house ]

Adding:

Stuart Appleby to beat Thomas Bjorn +105 @ Bowmans

Adding:

Phil Mickelson to beat Darren Clarke -124 @ Sportbet

Davis Love to beat Bob May -125 @ William Hill

3rd round update: 2-3-1 and +2.25 units and +1.5 houses LOL!

The 'too good to be true' play romped home with Tiger shooting seven shots less than the lowest of the day by Olazabal. The others were a little disappointing though. Mickelson did beat Clarke by three shots, but Westwood could only tie with van de Velde, Furyk lost to Westwood by five, Appleby lost to Bjorn by one and Love lost to May by six.

The 72-hole plays deteriorated to stand 2-4-0: Furyk/Clarke 7 down; Hoch/Faldo 2 down; Langham/Lawrie 11 up; Kenny Perry/Faxon 1 down; Glasson/Franco 2 up; Furyk/Garcia 3 down. Tiger birdied the 18th again, so just one more to make it a very profitable week.

Back with 4th round plays in the morning.

4th round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Thomas Bjorn +100 @ Bowmans

Davis Love to beat Michael Clark -143 @ Centrebet

Jim Furyk to beat Steve Lowery -120 @ Gamblers Palace

Jim Furyk to beat Steve Pate -125 @ DAS

Mike Weir to beat Wayne Grady -182 @ DAS

Franklin Langham to beat Jose Maria Olazabal +105 @ Five Dimes

And I can't believe it's happened again and at even better odds

The Field to beat Tiger Woods +200 @ Gamblers Palace [3 units]

4th round update: 2-4-1 and +2.12 units; 18-23-2 and +13.06 units for the week

WOW! What an event! Very difficult to cap, but am dealt two peaches and hit a huge prop. Quick recap on today's plays: Appleby/Bjorn 1 down; Love/Clark tie [but loss at Centrebet]; Furyk/Lowery 6 down; Furyk/Pate 7 down; Weir/Grady 7 up; Langham/Olazabal tie; Field/Woods 2 up

Even tried to hand back the week's easy picking on the 72-hole plays. The finished: Furyk/Clarke 15 down; Hoch/Faldo 8 down; Langham/Lawrie 17 up; Kenny Perry/Faxon 1 down; Glasson/Franco 1 down; Furyk/Garcia 9 down. Rather too many one shot losses or ties to lose, but certainly no complaints about the hand I've been dealt this week! The Furyk and Love finishing positions props were lost, but Tiger made it 4 birdies on the 18th [how ironic he doesn't in the playoff!] to make the +1400 prop a winner.

The outright plays were forgettable. Singh and Price missed the cut; Furyk was never close and gave up over the weekend.

Will be going away on holiday for a few days tomorrow so the site will not be updated until at least Thursday; will have some daily plays for the WGC event at the very least. Very glad I delayed going away until Monday