Western Open

A high quality field for an event that will for many be their last before the British Open - nobody wants to win the week before a Major! This is the 2nd oldest event on the PGA Tour, dating back to 1899, though it has only been held at Cog Hill since 1991. Nevertheless, it gives us ample course form to see that on this tight track, greens in regulation will be the key statistic. The greens are Bentgrass and undulating and have been enlarged recently, but this will be no putting contest. With Nick Price and Tiger Woods being the double-winners in the 1990s, the type of player who is successful at Cog Hill is clear.

Players with local connections are Jeff Sluman, who has played this event every year for over twenty years and did record three top-10 finishes in the 1990s, and Steve Stricker, who hails from neighboring Wisconsin and attended Illinois University; he also won this event in 1996 by eight shots. Both can be expected to perform better than of late.

The top-two ranked in this event are Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh, both of whom have excellent records in this event. Woods has won this event twice from three attempts and finished 9th the other time. No value to be found in the outright betting on Woods, but he does seriously hinder betting on everyone else in the field! Vijay has been 2nd and 4th in the last two years here and has been over par only twice in his last sixteen rounds here. Two dark horses would be Steve Flesch and Stuart Appleby. Flesch recorded his 8th top-10 from 18 starts last week and despite not having any course form to boast about, he is riding a crest of confidence and stands a creditable 14th in the greens in regulation stats. Appleby does have course form on his side: top-15 finishes in his last three visits and twenty-two under par from sixteen rounds is impressive.

Will have matchup plays beginning tomorrow.

Aaargh! The gambling gods got their revenge on me yesterday! After last week's successes, my laptop developed a power fault yesterday - it turned itself off and wouldn't turn on again! Fortunately, I managed to fix the problem this morning and avoid having it sent away, but boy is it easy to be superstitious in this game!!!

Anyway, below is a list of players who have withdrawn from the Western Open already. Will update it as I hear of more withdrawals, hope it will be of some use:

Fulton Allem
Billy Ray Brown
Rocco Mediate
Brent Schwarzrock

Adding:

John Daly

Adding:

Wayne Levi
Curtis Strange

72-hole plays:

Fred Funk to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ Easybets
Definitely expect this one to be over by Friday with at least one of these missing the cut, but if there is one key difference between these two players for this week, then it is that Funk is ranked 14th in this week's field in greens in regulation, Faxon is 130th in this key statistic

Chris Perry to beat Brent Geiberger -111 @ SIA
Both were top-10 here last year, but in terms of current form, Perry has a decisive edge. He may not be finishing events as well as last year, but his stats still look great and he is obviously a lover of this event having played here 14 times in the last 16 years

Chris Perry to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ WSEX
Same against Janzen. No real current form to talk about and hugely inferior greens in regulation stats

David Toms to beat Jeff Maggert -185 @ Bowmans [2 units]
Toms has been consistently in contention only to fall away of late, but at least he does get on the leaderboard; Maggert has missed the cut in 9 of his last 11 events. My line is -258 for this matchup, so I'll take it as good value even at -185

Chris Perry to beat Shigeki Maruyama -111 @ DAS [2 units]
First time on this course and outside the top-100 in greens in regulation, not this week for the ultra-consistent Maruyama

Kevin Sutherland to beat David Sutherland -139 @ Easybets [3 units]
Last time I saw this matchup it was virtually my play of the year ... and it lost! No reason to change my mind that the brothers are very unequal in terms of golfing ability - 9th last week for Kevin, mc for David; level par in 3 visits here for Kevin, 20 over par in 4 visits for David; 22nd in current field for greens in regulation for Kevin, 51st for David. Surely this time!

In truth, having to scratch around for value so far   Hope the lines that come out today are better.

Adding 72-hole plays:

Chris Perry to beat Brent Geiberger -111 @ SIA
Looked at weather forecast and tee-times; adding another unit on Perry over Geiberger

Chris Perry to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ WSEX
As above, another unit on Perry over Janzen

Vijay Singh to beat Tom Lehman -105 @ Intertops  [same odds at Megasports]
This is a course for ball-strikers and shot-makers, hence Vijay's excellent record here. With Lehman's one-dimensional game, it is no surprise that his record here is not great

Joe Ogilvie to beat Ted Tryba -125 @ Dunes
9th last year and in a run of decent form, I fancy Ogilvie for another top-30 finish and a win over one of my favorite go-againsts

1st round plays:

Nick Price to beat Steve Flesch -115 @ Five Dimes
Consistently top-25 in both recent events and last few years here for Price; with morning tee-time expect him to post a score to maintain that run of contention golf

Steve Stricker to beat Jerry Kelly +105 @ Moneyplays [3 units]
Both not playing too well at the moment, but as outlined above, every reason to expect Stricker to pick up his game this week. Don't expect Kelly to, he's missed the cut four times in five visits here

Mike Weir to beat Chris Perry -110 @ Five Dimes
Question of tee-times: Perry is playing in the afternoon, which is better statistically for the 36-hole total, but not for the 1st round total. Weir was 2nd last year and has had two top-10 and two top-20 finishes in his last four events, could push Tiger again this year

The Field to beat Tiger Woods -125 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Can't understand this line. The field is -200 to beat Tiger, but only -125 for the 1st round. Wouldn't touch the first, but surely someone can start hot and beat Tiger if only for a day

1st round update: 4-0-0 and +7.15 units

Price leads the tournament and in so doing beat Flesch by six shots and ensured Tiger did not. For the other two, Stricker beat Kelly by three and Weir beat Perry by the same score.

For the 72-hole plays the standings are: Funk/Faxon one up; Perry/Geiberger one down; Perry/Janzen one down; Toms/Maggert two down; Perry/Maruyama all square; Kevin/David Sutherland all square; Singh/Lehman two down; Ogilvie/Tryba three down. Very close all round, but no reason for concern as all the picks bar Joe Ogilvie will tee it up in the easier early morning conditions tomorrow.

Back with 2nd round plays in the morning.

2nd round plays:

Five Dimes are still trying to regain their customer base - last week it was 10-cent lines, this week there are 32 matchups for the second round!! That said they have none that I would consider banker plays, but I'm not used to having so much choice on a Friday. The plays:

Fred Couples to beat Steve Stricker -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds at Enterbet & Playersbet]

Steve Flesch to beat Nick Price -110 @ Five Dimes

Fred Funk to beat Ted Tryba -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Jim Furyk +100 @ Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Bill Glasson +105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jerry Kelly to beat Steve Stricker +100 @ Five Dimes

Dave Stockton to beat Jeff Maggert +110 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Mike Weir @ -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Adding two more:

Bob Estes to beat Bill Glasson +100 @ Five Dimes

Steve Flesch to beat Mike Weir -120 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 8-0-2 and +12.20 units

Thank you Five Dimes   Today's results: Couples beat Stricker by six; Flesch beat both Price and Weir also by six; Funk beat Tryba by three; Singh tied with Furyk; Toms beat Glasson by three; Kelly beat Stricker by two; Stockton beat Maggert by one; Perry beat Weir by three; and Estes tied with Glasson.

On the 72-hole front though, only one plays was closed out at the halfway cut and that was Singh losing to Lehman by two. The others are as such: Funk/Faxon two up; Perry/Geiberger one down; Perry/Janzen three down; Toms/Maggert two up; Perry/Maruyama one down; Kevin/David Sutherland one up; and Ogilvie/Tryba one up.

Back with 3rd round plays in the morning.

Early 3rd round plays:

Tiger Woods to beat Robert Allenby -210 @ Island Casino [same odds at Enterbet]

Joe Durant to beat Brad Elder -115 @ the Starnet books

Bill Glasson to beat Carl Paulson -125 @ Island Casino [same odds at Sportbet & Enterbet]

Only a few one-unit plays so far - will hopefully have stronger plays when more lines come out.

Adding:

Scott Hoch to beat Dave Stockton -125 @ William Hill  [-192 @ Canbet where ties don't lose]

Nick Price to beat David Morland -175 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]  [-249 @ Canbet where ties don't lose]

Too many extremely short-priced favorites in today's two-balls. All of them justified, but it's been quite some time since I found value in -175 and -210 plays!

3rd round update: 3-2-0 and +0.75 units

Lost the -210 play!!! Tiger bogeyed two par-fives today - when did that last happen?? - on his way to losing by two shots to Allenby. Durant lost by three to Elder, but Glasson won by one, Hoch by four and Price by five. At least there was a small profit on an otherwise unappealing day.

With regard to the 72-hole plays, these stand as follows: Funk/Faxon four up; Perry/Geiberger one up; Perry/Janzen six down; Toms/Maggert two up; Perry/Maruyama four down; Kevin/David Sutherland two up; and Ogilvie/Tryba eight up.

Back with 4th round plays in the morning.

Two very early 4th round plays:

Steve Flesch to beat Brian Henninger -110 @ the Starnet books [3 units]

David Toms to beat Mark Wiebe -135 @ the Starnet books [2 units]

Anybody else know why Henninger is a -120 favorite against Flesch? Thought the line would have been more in line with the Toms line and I would have still played it for two units then!

Adding 4th round plays:

  Five Dimes have done it again!!! They have lines for every single two-ball in today's final round! Now that really is one way to get their customers to come back

Stuart Appleby to beat Tommy Armour -130 @ Island Casino [2 units]  [same odds @ Sportbet, Playersbet and Enterbet]

Cameron Beckman to beat Craig Perks -115 @ Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Mike Brisky -163 @ Canbet

Mark Brooks to beat Bob Burns -135 @ Five Dimes

Fred Couples to beat Jeff Maggert -130 @ Moneyplays [3 units]  [same odds @ Playersbet and Enterbet]

Joe Durant to beat David Morland -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Bob Estes to beat Ryan Howison -160 @ Five Dimes

Bill Glasson to beat Carl Paulson -115 @ Island Casino  [same odds @ Sportbet, Playersbet and Enterbet]

Tom Lehman to beat Matt Goggin -190 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Chris Perry to beat Dennis Paulson -137 @ Canbet

2nd day there has been rather a lot of heavy favs but my lines are very much in excess of these.

Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes have just added lines, still waiting on William Hill, so adding:

Tiger Woods to beat Olin Browne -225 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]  [-600 @ Five Dimes!]

Final update: 4-6-3 and -14.90 units for the day; 22-12-6 and +1.03 units for the week

Geez, what a roller-coaster week! Horrid 0-3-1 last day on 3-unit plays and some big losses with heavy favorites this week. Losses at -225, -210, -190 and -185 and we very rarely get these lines let alone do I play them. What a week!

To summarize today's results: Flesch/Henninger one down [painful to watch him on the short putts!]; Toms/Wiebe three up; Appleby/Armour all square; Beckman/Perks six up; Toms/Brisky five up; Brooks/Burns two down; Couples/Maggert two down; Durant/Morland all square; Estes/Howison two up; Glasson/Paulson one down; Lehman/Goggin three down; Perry/Paulson all square; Woods/Browne all square but ties lose at VC

Things had been looking good on the 72-hole play front ... until today! Where did that week from Maggert come from??? The results on these plays: Funk/Faxon three up; Perry/Geiberger all square; Perry/Janzen five down; Toms/Maggert one down; Perry/Maruyama eight down; Kevin/David Sutherland two up; Ogilvie/Tryba eleven up.

Update on outright bets: 0-3 and -3.00 units

What a roller-coaster week on the outrights as well! Singh missed the cut with ease, but Appleby was lying 3rd after both the 1st and the 2nd round only to have a disappointing weekend and finish 20th and Flesch was leading the tournament going into the final round only to miss yet more two-foot putts and finish out of the places, back in 9th. So close, but .... at least we're getting close!